97S INVEST 220304 1200 16.0S 56.0E SHEM 15 0
SIO: GOMBE - Post-Tropical
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Hurricane2021
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
This storm will likely develop in a Intense Tropical Cyclone per GFS.
Threat for Mauritius and Reunion!
Threat for Mauritius and Reunion!
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wxman57
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
Hurricane2021 wrote:This storm will likely develop in a Intense Tropical Cyclone per GFS.
Threat for Mauritius and Reunion!
I wouldn't say that it's likely, given that the GFS tends to develop everything into an intense storm. It has performed poorly this season. However, I do think that the invest now qualifies for upgrade to a depression given the tight LLC on ASCAT and convection over the center. The official agency, Meteo France in La Reunion says that the circulation is elongated (it isn't now) so they're not upgrading it.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
Gombe’s model forecasts are all over the place. Either it gets ripped up over Madagascar and fails to emerge into the Mozambique Channel for long enough to recover, or it exploded into a very powerful major on some side of Madagascar. Today’s 12z GFS and HWRF runs are particularly aggressive; the GFS gets down to 921 mbar while the HWRF shows Gombe peaking as a 145 kt/909 mbar Cat 5. It’s too early to determine whether the very bearish or very bullish scenarios will verify, or if Gombe ends up as something in between those two extremes. Maybe another day or two and we’ll have a better idea.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
wxman57 wrote:I'm Gombe, Damnit! Next storm on the list is Pokey.
Bowser is behind all of this, I'm sure!
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Iceresistance
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
FireRat wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm Gombe, D**nit! Next storm on the list is Pokey.cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1500902295411773445
Bowser is behind all of this, I'm sure!
I absolutely could not stop laughing on the storm names.
But this is not a laughing matter here, Madagascar is being absolutely plummeted in the 2021-2022 Season, I don't recall the Island taking this kind of a pounding before!
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Hurricane2021
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
Looks to be getting a microwave eye already, having just emerged back over water. Definitely has the chance to rapidly intensify.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
This is a pretty bad structure for RI. That massive band is robbing the core of energy despite the forming eyewall. If this succeeds in delaying Gombe’s recovery, those insane Cat 4 GFS/HWRF landfalls would be a lot less likely to verify.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone
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Hurricanehink
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1501960425692438528
This map appears to be missing Kenneth in 2019, which was Mozambique's strongest ever landfalling cyclone.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone
Not shabby appearance wise even if this was nowhere as strong as initially modeled. Likely around 95 knots.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone
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Hurricanehink
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Post-Tropical
Now that the remnants are back over water, the JTWC upgraded the potential for development to medium. In the latest STWO, the JTWC says it has 48 hours over water. The MFR says redevelopment is unlikely.
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