Texas Spring 2022

[HockeyTx82]

WxTwitter has unsurprisingly come alive for next week’s severe threats. Even Mike Ventrice is out posting some pretty notable maps.

Click bait.......

Sure I get excited around cold weather but when it comes to spring and severe weather which can damage life and property and cause death hyping things up for clicks or hits is just wrong.

Yes I get it, cold can do the same, but kids generally don't get scared around snow storms. Just yesterday my 6 yo heard Fox 4 talking about Lemon Sized hail and for the rest of the day was worried.

How did we ever manage severe storm season without Twitter Trolls.....

I hardly think Mike Ventrice is a “Twitter troll”. There are definitely a few trolls out there but I think the biggest problem is amateurs getting ahead of themselves on pretty setups a week out. There’s a long time left for things to change, but the potential is high enough that I think it’s talking about in circles like this. Inevitably there will be bad takes and bandwagoners, but I think we both are old enough to know that long before Twitter the same comments were being made, just relegated to smaller circles.

I'm just salty today and getting a new roof installed Wednesday so forgive me if I just want summer to get here so my roof can last at least a year.

And yes, it was a tongue and cheek comment.

[Ntxw]

Click bait.......

Sure I get excited around cold weather but when it comes to spring and severe weather which can damage life and property and cause death hyping things up for clicks or hits is just wrong.

Yes I get it, cold can do the same, but kids generally don't get scared around snow storms. Just yesterday my 6 yo heard Fox 4 talking about Lemon Sized hail and for the rest of the day was worried.

How did we ever manage severe storm season without Twitter Trolls.....

I hardly think Mike Ventrice is a “Twitter troll”. There are definitely a few trolls out there but I think the biggest problem is amateurs getting ahead of themselves on pretty setups a week out. There’s a long time left for things to change, but the potential is high enough that I think it’s talking about in circles like this. Inevitably there will be bad takes and bandwagoners, but I think we both are old enough to know that long before Twitter the same comments were being made, just relegated to smaller circles.

I'm just salty today and getting a new roof installed Wednesday so forgive me if I just want summer to get here so my roof can last at least a year.

And yes, it was a tongue and cheek comment.

I feel you on that one. You just have to go through a tornado or big hail storm once and never want to see it again. I used to get excited until I had to clean up after a couple of nasty hail storms. As a home owner nothing about severe weather is 'fun.' Only for chasers.

[Ntxw]

On the drought front through mid March DFW has received 0.28" of rain. Half month to go and normal is 3.30. Remember from prior post we need to be a few inches above that at 5-6" to start eliminating it, if we fall short it's another long term deficit. March for the airport is annually the 4th wettest month on average.

Soil drought will kick in a few months, probably smart to think about what to plant and watering schedules. Hydro drought (lakes and reservoirs) will be late this year into next so not a bad idea to be working our way into conservation mode.

[cheezyWXguy]

The big question for Thursday’s storms is clearly whether instability is sufficient to break the cap, because SRH definitely looks high enough to support rotating updrafts. I can see why some of you have called this a sleeper event.

[ElectricStorm]

Rare special Day 3 outlook issued for Thursday. Upgrade to slight risk.

[Quixotic]

Man I hate hail. I’d rather it’d be 110 outside.

I can arrange that.

This was a good one.

[Iceresistance]

The big question for Thursday’s storms is clearly whether instability is sufficient to break the cap, because SRH definitely looks high enough to support rotating updrafts. I can see why some of you have called this a sleeper event.

Keep in mind that the cap is sometimes needed to allow only the strongest Supercells to form since it would not allow other storms to break the cap & the Dominant storms does not have competing storms to inhibit it from producing tornadoes.

[cheezyWXguy]

SPC write up for Day 6, pretty aggressive for this far out:

By Monday/Day 6, as the next upper trough shifts into the central and southern Plains, an evolving cold front is forecast to cross the western half of Texas. Strong southeasterly low-level flow will advect a moist Gulf airmass into Texas, contributing to afternoon destabilization. Meanwhile, as a strong (100 kt) southwesterly mid-level jet associated with the upper system overspreads the southern Plains atop the low-level southeasterlies, shear quite favorable for supercells is expected. As convection develops near and ahead of the cold front, evolution of locally intense/severe storms -- including potential for very large hail and tornadoes -- is expected.

[Cpv17]

SPC write up for Day 6, pretty aggressive for this far out:

By Monday/Day 6, as the next upper trough shifts into the central and southern Plains, an evolving cold front is forecast to cross the western half of Texas. Strong southeasterly low-level flow will advect a moist Gulf airmass into Texas, contributing to afternoon destabilization. Meanwhile, as a strong (100 kt) southwesterly mid-level jet associated with the upper system overspreads the southern Plains atop the low-level southeasterlies, shear quite favorable for supercells is expected. As convection develops near and ahead of the cold front, evolution of locally intense/severe storms -- including potential for very large hail and tornadoes -- is expected.

Yep and it covers a huge part of the state as well. Probably 15M+ people.

[rwfromkansas]

I am more interested in Monday since tomorrow looks still more east of me. But, a lot can change…it could expand west.

Monday looks big.

I have been lucky with no major roof-killing hail storms here in 7 years. Not sure how much longer that can last.

[Iceresistance]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

[rwfromkansas]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

That gets my attention for tomorrow. I think the risk will expand west to start west of me.

[Iceresistance]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

That gets my attention for tomorrow. I think the risk will expand west to start west of me.

Could be an Enhanced day for Dixie Alley for Tornadoes, & here for Wind & Hail.

Also, the Day 6 Discussion, I'm worried for that, we could get a Rare Day 3 Moderate Risk, the 30% Days 4-8 Enhanced risk may be needed if these trends continue.

[Iceresistance]

The WPC is looking really impressive


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif

[Cpv17]

The WPC is looking really impressive

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif

Shift that south about 150 miles and I’ll take it

[Iceresistance]

The WPC is looking really impressive

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif

Shift that south about 150 miles and I’ll take it

Or make it larger, DFW really needs rain.

[rwfromkansas]

The CIPS analog threat guidance seems to indicate a higher risk starting west of DFW tomorrow, so could be a bad day for the metro if accurate.

Then again, models really show nothing significant even in east TX.

[HockeyTx82]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

What are you posting? No offense and I appreciate the passion but your track record over winter of posting maps leads me to think this is just a one off extreme run or something. Please put some context around what this is.

Not trying to be rude, but you do post lots of maps. Keep up the passion.

[Iceresistance]

The CIPS analog threat guidance seems to indicate a higher risk starting west of DFW, so could be a bad day for the metro if accurate.

It's a Triple Point event as well, it can trend really bad really quickly, especially if the threat point appears to be near a major city or major highway (I-35).

[Edwards Limestone]

The WPC is looking really impressive

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WPC-WOW.gif

Unfortunately looks to be a setup for another glancing blow to the east for us along 35 south of Waco? Lucy w/ the football again? (ugh)

..obviously very hopeful but not banking on it. South-central TX is the brownest I've ever seen it for mid-March. We haven't had significant rainfall in several months.