2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Yellow Evan]

Since AMO EOF’s were referenced, posting this.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1245054556599463936

[weeniepatrol]

Zero doubt +AMO continues to prevail. Just look at the dominant African forcing that manifests itself each summer. That's all you need to know.

[AlphaToOmega]

Since AMO EOF’s were referenced, posting this.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1245054556599463936?s=21

During ASO, we typically have some sort of weird mix between EOF1 and EOF2.

[SFLcane]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

This Kinda looks like a recurve pattern but its still very early.

It's extremely early. It's so early I have no idea why I'm even reading this

Hey!!

Lol.. its early alright so who knows. One thing that continues to look rather certain is we are headed for another busy season.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing looks pretty certain in terms of sst anomalies in the Atlantic: we will likely not have to deal with an Atlantic Nino this year. All attention should be directed at the MDR vs subtropical warmth, as others have pointed out.

[WiscoWx02]

Since AMO EOF’s were referenced, posting this.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1245054556599463936?s=21

Yep that's the post I vaguely remember!!!!! It's been 2 years already I guess
I won't doubt that we are in a +AMO at this point for sure but like I said before it's a hybrid atypical one but still one nonetheless. The fact this was brought up in 2020 is interesting as well cause I remember the debate rage back then too and it was the same debate as it is now. The MDR warmed up a lot but it was more of the Caribbean warmth that determined the outcome of how 2020 played out, not the deep tropics. The ticket this season in my opinion is really going to be position of the ITCZ and the Atlantic El Nino or La Nina as AlphaToOmega mentioned earlier and how warm the Caribbean Sea is compared to normal. If the Caribbean Sea is warm and the ITCZ is further north than we will probably have a more backloaded west based season cause I'm sure with the warm subtropics we will have an unruly TUTT set-up like prior years so waves may only get going once they get further west.

[zzh]

We can see some warming in east MDR region if the forecast verifies.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1506273760059568135




Likely a suppressed MDR for the first few weeks of summer before ASO...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1506273760059568135

Likely a suppressed MDR for the first few weeks of summer before ASO...

Um yea.. we do this same song every year only for the mdr to warm up right before peak.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1506276352604921876



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1506279985488838660



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1506358205965864963



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1506358645164023808

[Shell Mound]

We are very much in a +AMO. Bs to think we aren’t. A -AMO wouldn’t produce the type of landfalls we been seeing every year since 2016.

There have been plenty of strong landfalls during -AMOs (i.e., 1970’s Celia, 1975’s Eloise, and so on). Arguably -AMOs tend to produce more high-end impacts, at least under some circumstances, because they favour homegrown genesis and/or nearshore RI (i.e., 1992’s Andrew and 2018’s Michael).

I still think that the warmer subtropics vs. the relatively cooler MDR indicate that we have been in at least a weak -AMM since 2013. I think that the warm subtropical northwestern Atlantic outweighs the lingering warmth near the Canaries insofar as it best signifies a net trend toward a -AMM on balance.

Until we start seeing more years with a warmer MDR relative to the subtropics, I’m saying that we are currently in a long-term -AMM cycle. A classic +AMM features a cooler subtropical northwestern Atlantic vs. the deep tropics (MDR and/or Caribbean). The pattern since 2013 has generally been the opposite.

With well-above-average SST firmly established in the subtropics, 2022 will likely feature suppressed activity in the MDR and/or Caribbean, owing to stability and issues with TUTTs (anticyclonic wave-breaking via “streamers”). Getting long-trackers like Irma or Sam will be more difficult than in a +AMM cycle.

[Shell Mound]

Zero doubt +AMO continues to prevail. Just look at the dominant African forcing that manifests itself each summer. That's all you need to know.

The WAM has more to do with the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean than anything else, if I recall correctly. If not for the WAM we would be in a solid (that is, canonical) -AMM. As it stands the current SST pattern in the Atlantic basin since 2013 has definitely been leaning toward a -AMM, and if not for the WAM seasonal ACE and overall activity would likely reflect the warmer subtropics vs. the MDR. If not for the WAM the deep tropics would have likely been dead in each season post 2013. Hyperactive seasons usually feature at least a couple of long-trackers. Since 2013 only one of the two “hyperactive” seasons, 2017, has featured multiple, intense, CV-type long-trackers in the MDR.

[tolakram]

March 23rd

I'm enjoying the conversation but until May I say this is all unknown.

[wxman57]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

[SFLcane]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO1.png

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO2.png

What kinda season are you expecting? Numbers?

[wxman57]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

What kinda season are you expecting? Numbers?

I'm thinking that the MDR may be more favorable east of the Caribbean than it has been since 2017. Increased risk of a significant hurricane impact for the islands (sorry, Luis). Analogs suggest a significant east coast threat (includes Florida). Numbers-wise, thinking 19/8/4. With so many weak, short-lived storms now being named, the 19 number may be low. Nearly half of the 2021 storms were "shorties". Ratio of named storms to hurricanes used to be 2:1. Now, with better detection of weak systems out to sea and changing naming criteria, that ratio is more like 3:1. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, so a bit above average activity. No El Nino likely. Probably cool-neutral. Not an inhibiting factor.

Two weeks from today I'll be seeing Klotzbach at the NTWC in S. Padre. We've been discussing the season over the past few months. He'll officially release his projections then.

[cycloneye]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

What kinda season are you expecting? Numbers?

I'm thinking that the MDR may be more favorable east of the Caribbean than it has been since 2017. Increased risk of a significant hurricane impact for the islands (sorry, Luis). Analogs suggest a significant east coast threat (includes Florida). Numbers-wise, thinking 19/8/4. With so many weak, short-lived storms now being named, the 19 number may be low. Nearly half of the 2021 storms were "shorties". Ratio of named storms to hurricanes used to be 2:1. Now, with better detection of weak systems out to sea and changing naming criteria, that ratio is more like 3:1. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, so a bit above average activity. No El Nino likely. Probably cool-neutral. Not an inhibiting factor.

Two weeks from today I'll be seeing Klotzbach at the NTWC in S. Padre. We've been discussing the season over the past few months. He'll officially release his projections then.

Well, let's begin early preparations in the NE Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

What kinda season are you expecting? Numbers?

I'm thinking that the MDR may be more favorable east of the Caribbean than it has been since 2017. Increased risk of a significant hurricane impact for the islands (sorry, Luis). Analogs suggest a significant east coast threat (includes Florida). Numbers-wise, thinking 19/8/4. With so many weak, short-lived storms now being named, the 19 number may be low. Nearly half of the 2021 storms were "shorties". Ratio of named storms to hurricanes used to be 2:1. Now, with better detection of weak systems out to sea and changing naming criteria, that ratio is more like 3:1. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, so a bit above average activity. No El Nino likely. Probably cool-neutral. Not an inhibiting factor.

Two weeks from today I'll be seeing Klotzbach at the NTWC in S. Padre. We've been discussing the season over the past few months. He'll officially release his projections then.

Florida you heard it here first.

[AutoPenalti]

Phil Klotzbach updated the AMO index with February results, I see. February value was -0.81. Definitely cool. Here are plots 1950-2022 and 2000-2022.

What kinda season are you expecting? Numbers?

I'm thinking that the MDR may be more favorable east of the Caribbean than it has been since 2017. Increased risk of a significant hurricane impact for the islands (sorry, Luis). Analogs suggest a significant east coast threat (includes Florida). Numbers-wise, thinking 19/8/4. With so many weak, short-lived storms now being named, the 19 number may be low. Nearly half of the 2021 storms were "shorties". Ratio of named storms to hurricanes used to be 2:1. Now, with better detection of weak systems out to sea and changing naming criteria, that ratio is more like 3:1. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, so a bit above average activity. No El Nino likely. Probably cool-neutral. Not an inhibiting factor.

Two weeks from today I'll be seeing Klotzbach at the NTWC in S. Padre. We've been discussing the season over the past few months. He'll officially release his projections then.

Kinda funny, I also thought of predicting 19/8/4 as that was my magic number(s) in seasons when -ENSO was forecasted.

[Yellow Evan]

We are very much in a +AMO. Bs to think we aren’t. A -AMO wouldn’t produce the type of landfalls we been seeing every year since 2016.

There have been plenty of strong landfalls during -AMOs (i.e., 1970’s Celia, 1975’s Eloise, and so on). Arguably -AMOs tend to produce more high-end impacts, at least under some circumstances, because they favour homegrown genesis and/or nearshore RI (i.e., 1992’s Andrew and 2018’s Michael).

I still think that the warmer subtropics vs. the relatively cooler MDR indicate that we have been in at least a weak -AMM since 2013. I think that the warm subtropical northwestern Atlantic outweighs the lingering warmth near the Canaries insofar as it best signifies a net trend toward a -AMM on balance.

Until we start seeing more years with a warmer MDR relative to the subtropics, I’m saying that we are currently in a long-term -AMM cycle. A classic +AMM features a cooler subtropical northwestern Atlantic vs. the deep tropics (MDR and/or Caribbean). The pattern since 2013 has generally been the opposite.

With well-above-average SST firmly established in the subtropics, 2022 will likely feature suppressed activity in the MDR and/or Caribbean, owing to stability and issues with TUTTs (anticyclonic wave-breaking via “streamers”). Getting long-trackers like Irma or Sam will be more difficult than in a +AMM cycle.

2018 was a spring -AMM turned +AMM. Wouldn’t get such a wet Africa without a +AMM.

-AMO historic US landfalls are basically 1906 Mississippi, 1915 Galveston, 1915 New Orleans, 1918 Key West, Carmen, Allen, Hugo and Andrew. That’s a relatively short list compared to +AMO in part due to rising motion over the Central America shearing the Caribbean to the point where the Caribbean once went 7 years without a hurricane during a -AMO.