2022 Severe Weather

[Iceresistance]

Large, Violent Tornado just missed Des Moines, Iowa to the SE, that thing is a wedge. (Saw a photo of it on a Tweet)

[ElectricStorm]

Today was a massive overperformance and a perfect example of how much these triple point setups can really ramp up right before the event. Tragically, there have been at least 6 fatalities so far, hopefully there won't be any more than that.

As for tomorrow, it will be mostly a nocturnal event, unlike today's peak. There's some pretty solid parameters tomorrow, especially in AR, and while storm mode might not be super favorable, anything that can stay discrete and take advantage of that could be a problem. Hopefully tomorrow won't become a full on outbreak like today did.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow already EF3+ just hours after the event
https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status ... 1057748999

Also tomorrow got upgraded to enhanced.

[Iceresistance]

Classic Supercell with a Tornado near Russellsville, Arkansas

[ElectricStorm]

Some updates from NWS Des Moines on the tornadoes from yesterday:
Winterset- prelim EF3+
Chariton- prelim EF3
Corydon- prelim EF2
Humeston- prelim EF2
Link to their twitter page for more info and updates: https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines

Fortunately, even though today had its moments, it was nowhere near yesterday in terms of activity and impacts. QLCS tornadoes remain possible for the next few hours but the main show appears to be done. Bit of a cap inversion held today back from reaching it's full potential but there were still some impressive supercells and tornadoes.

Tomorrow should be the final day of this system, and it appears to be more of a squall line/wind event rather than a tornado event like the last two days were. Will likely see some QLCS spin ups, but hopefully not anything more.

After that, the next potential system looks to be around 3/11 in the deep south.

[cycloneye]

Winterset/ Newton Iowa tornado= EF-4

 https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1500894999793131520

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk for Wind & Tornadoes for Florida Tomorrow

[Iceresistance]

The Severe Weather pattern has been surprisingly active for a La Nina, especially for the Plains region. The pattern may take a 2 day rest later this week, which is likely allowing the atmosphere to settle down & refresh, then it will return back to the severe weather pattern that has been going on right now since at least March 5th.

[Iceresistance]

Lots of Severe Weather days are in place for this week & next week, this March has been really active, even the Plains.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Large, Violent Tornado just missed Des Moines, Iowa to the SE, that thing is a wedge. (Saw a photo of it on a Tweet)

My friend was on the tornado! I am so jealous I wasn't able to chase! (college)
edit: yeah I was delayed on this post lol.

[ElectricStorm]

Upgrade to enhanced for the gulf coast tomorrow. 10 hatched tornado risk

[ElectricStorm]

I'm very concerned for LA tonight. Tornado watch up with 80/50 probs, is some of the highest of the year so far. I hope everyone there has a way to get warnings. Could be a long night down there.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm very concerned for LA tonight. Tornado watch up with 80/50 probs, is some of the highest of the year so far. I hope everyone there has a way to get warnings. Could be a long night down there.

As of right now there are 0 tornado reports from this so looks like it stayed messy and wasn't ever able to get anything going.

Ongoing threat now with a 10 hatched enhanced risk up for the gulf coast. Not much going on now other than a standard squall right now but we'll see if that changes or not. Later today a secondary threat will be for the Midwest and OV.

Both Monday and Tuesday have some serious potential and they should be both at least moderate risks but it's still several days out and a lot can change.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Monday is gonna be trouble. Like I mean, forget the risks thing. We are going to see the conditions for maybe not record amounts of tornadoes, but some extremely powerful ones. I mean, holy crap the low lvl jet is forecast to be a banger. look at the 850mb wind pattern forecasts. We got a negative tilted trough to add up on all that.

[ElectricStorm]

Current thoughts for next week:
Like I mentioned in the Texas thread, I think we'll see a Day 3 enhanced for Monday with a likely upgrade to moderate at some point. Definitely looks like a major event, and if we end up getting more instability than forecast it will become even more concerning. The NAM has a larger area of instability, and GFS is sometimes known to underestimate it a bit, but to me all things considered this is shaping up to be a classic 15 hatched moderate risk event unless models start downtrending drastically over the next few days which is possible but unlikely IMO.

I'm also extremely concerned about Tuesday. GFS has more instability, and the NAM is not quite in range yet, but we could be looking at back to back big time events here. Wednesday could also be pretty active but as of right now it shouldn't be as active as Mon-Tues.

There's always a possibility of a downtrend but I'm not seeing that at the moment. As of right now, I'm really not seeing a whole lot holding either of these days back and that's a major concern. Buckle up folks, severe season is here, and it's not messing around.

[ElectricStorm]

SPC with some very strong wording for Tuesday. Might be a possible Day 3 moderate but I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[ElectricStorm]

One of the rarest things you'll see from SPC. Day 3 moderate


We're gonna have to hope storm mode is messier than normal, that's the only thing that could maybe hold this back. Next best scenario is it could pull a 3/17/21 and all the strong tornadoes are in rural areas and they all miss the populated towns/cities.

Yeah this is gonna get ugly.

[InfernoFlameCat]

SPC with some very strong wording for Tuesday. Might be a possible Day 3 moderate but I wouldn't be surprised either way.

nice catch. I wonder if we will see a long tracked type outbreak or if it will be more cyclic. I am leaning towards cyclic.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 outlook should remain moderate. There's only 2 Day 2 high risks on record and they were both for exceptional events, so we shouldn't see that here. First look at the CAMs are pretty linear, but a lot of times they'll show more discrete cells as we get closer to the event, and they're really not very reliable at this range anyway. I think we could see an expansion of the moderate a bit but any potential upgrade would most likely be on the day of, and an upgrade isn't certain anyway. Still some uncertainties here that could be the difference between a major tornado outbreak and a squall line wind event.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 remains enhanced for now