Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

For parts of N TX the morning heavy rain activity will likely help keep the risk down some with an atmosphere worked over (would change if timing was off). Areas to the south and just east would favor peak heating on Monday.

For Oklahoma dew points in the 40s/50s is too cool. South of I-20 and east of I-35 has a good window of 65+ DP in the afternoon.

Tuesday looks like a severe weather day for dixie alley.

Even though I may not get Severe Weather action, I will get a LOT of rainfall from the storm system, which will limit the drought from further expansion for a while.

[Bhow]

18z nam3k definitely shifted west. Puts Austin in the crosshairs

[cheezyWXguy]

18z nam3k definitely shifted west. Puts Austin in the crosshairs

Agreed, I don’t think this is all that cut and dry. The NAM shows a slower further south surface low and puts dfw in the mix with central Texas for most favorable conditions on Monday. It also really cuts down on the morning/early afternoon precip. It’s just one model, but I think it’s enough to induce more uncertainty into our expectations.

[txtwister78]

RAP extended has temps in the mid 80's, cape over 3k and dews in the mid to upper 60's across SA with isolated storms developing near SA with a line of severe storms firing from SA to AUS between 3PM-4PM. Definitely a trend west today by some models and with this occurring during the late afternoon those areas need to monitor trends closely tomorrow to see if this continues.

I think if the 0z models show any indication of this SPC could adjust severe threat further SW than where they have it now.

[TheProfessor]

Current thought by most models and WPC is 1 to 2 inches of rain for most of Kansas. (minus the NAM which is trying to give snow(eww) and keep western Kansas dry). This would be a drought buster for pretty much the western 75% of the state that averages a lot less rainfall than the Southern Plains. It helps that a decent portion of central and west-central Kansas got 0.5-1" of QPF this past Thursday/Friday. 2" here at Wichita would put us about an inch over where we need to be on the year (down 0.75" as of now).

[South Texas Storms]

0z HRRR looks similar to the Euro in blowing up a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from Austin to SA late Monday afternoon. I would expect a slight expansion west in the severe risk areas from SPC tonight if the other 0z high res guidance is similar.

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR looks similar to the Euro in blowing up a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from Austin to SA late Monday afternoon. I would expect a slight expansion west in the severe risk areas from SPC tonight if the other 0z high res guidance is similar.

RGV may get some of the action as well.

[wxman22]

The 0Z HRRR looks rough...

[TheProfessor]

Storm mode will be interesting. HRRR is hinting towards semi-discrete storms (aka embedded supercells), storm motion on the HRRR would at least keep the line semi-discrete for a short time. Main issue is the fact that it's the 48 hour HRRR. Anyways, if confidence increases towards at least semi-discrete storms and possibly more instability (with the orientation of the trough, would not surprise me if models are underestimating moisture return some.) I could see a day 1 moderate for portions of Central Texas.

[Iceresistance]

Storm mode will be interesting. HRRR is hinting towards semi-discrete storms (aka embedded supercells), storm motion on the HRRR would at least keep the line semi-discrete for a short time. Main issue is the fact that it's the 48 hour HRRR. Anyways, if confidence increases towards at least semi-discrete storms and possibly more instability (with the orientation of the trough, would not surprise me if models are underestimating moisture return some.) I could see a day 1 moderate for portions of Central Texas.

The HRRR also noted some really intense Hail Cores in South-Central Texas, like near San Antonio & Austin, a Moderate risk for that with a Hatched area is also needed if that trends.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 0Z HRRR looks rough...

https://i.ibb.co/drNn0Vf/Screenshot-2022-03-19-at-21-04-47-Models-HRRR-Pivotal-Weather.png

Am I seeing this right? Are there dots of white in those supercells?

[Iceresistance]

The 0Z HRRR looks rough...

https://i.ibb.co/drNn0Vf/Screenshot-2022-03-19-at-21-04-47-Models-HRRR-Pivotal-Weather.png

Am I seeing this right? Are there dots of white in those supercells?

Yes, these are INTENSE Hail Cores, probably up to Baseball sized.

If the heavy rainfall these storms produce goes over the drought stricken areas, then the Drought Feedback loop would become temporary weaker.

[Iceresistance]

0z 3km NAM makes it linear more quickly,, but slower compared to 18z, a slightly stronger cap would defeat that feature, but we need the Cap weaker if we're trying to avoid separate Supercells.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z 3km NAM makes it linear more quickly,, but slower compared to 18z, a slightly stronger cap would defeat that feature, but we need the Cap weaker if we're trying to avoid separate Supercells.

From what I’ve seen, the NAM tends to have a bias towards converging storms into a line, while the HRRR tends to have an overly discrete bias. Ultimately will probably end up somewhere in the middle

[ElectricStorm]

The CAMs aren't really all that reliable at this range, but it'll be important to see how they trend tomorrow. I don't know if there's enough there to see an upgrade to moderate on the initial Day 2 outlook but I wouldn't be surprised either way at this point.

[TheProfessor]

Not quite trusting the NAM right now. It did horrible with Thursday's storm here. There were a couple of runs that gave us nothing lol. Seems like it's trying to do that again where it's too far south and east with everything.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not quite trusting the NAM right now. It did horrible with Thursday's storm here. There were a couple of runs that gave us nothing lol. Seems like it's trying to do that again where it's too far south and east with everything.

Well, the Euro and GFS both show my area in SE Texas getting some very heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. I was thinking it was strange showing the line building down to the coast then suddenly retreating north. I didn't think the run made a lot of sense.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not quite trusting the NAM right now. It did horrible with Thursday's storm here. There were a couple of runs that gave us nothing lol. Seems like it's trying to do that again where it's too far south and east with everything.

Well, the Euro and GFS both show my area in SE Texas getting some very heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. I was thinking it was strange showing the line building down to the coast then suddenly retreating north. I didn't think the run made a lot of sense.

Referring to the NAM run.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow. SPC has Houston under a 10% tornado risk. I don't think I've ever been in that high of a tornado risk area before.

[bubba hotep]

WPC Rainfall



SPC Day 2 Tornado