Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

2nd check at the SPC Mesoanalysis, CAPE is higher than expected across most of Texas, up to 3000 J/kg in Far Southern Texas

Bulk Shear is higher in South-Central & Southern Texas, up to 75 knots at it's peak.

Supercell Composite is the same value (16) compared to the expected one, but it's more spread out.

The SHIP is also more favorable for Dangerously large hail, up to 3 inches of Hail instead of 2-2.5 inches from the RAP (NOTE: Not the forecasted Hail Size, it's the instability that is capable of producing Hail up to a certain size)

Very concerned that this could overperform like a High Risk situation.

No this is far far far from a high risk situation. Please refrain from such language

Sorry about that, it got the better of me, I'm very worried since it could overperform.

Then again, it could be like May 20th, 2019, when one ingredient was missing & changed the outcome of that event to less storms.

[txtwister78]

True TX weather...blizzard warning out for Amarillo region now. Amazing.

[South Texas Storms]

FWIW, NWS has reduced storm chances to 50% this afternoon in my forecast area (north-central SA). Was 70% this AM.

Down to 30% here. Good luck to everyone north and east! That sounding from CLL is incredible.

The threat is not over for SA yet. Still have a few hours to go until the dry line passes giving the all clear.

[txtwister78]

And the NAM caves (as if we haven't heard that before). Good for temps during winter...terrible model for severe weather.

[Iceresistance]

Satellite is showing a buildup of cumulus near Del Rio, radar near there is showing developing storms, it could be the beginning of the Supercells in Southern Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

And the NAM caves (as if we haven't heard that before). Good for temps during winter...terrible model for severe weather.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022032118/003/refcmp.us_sc.png

Caves for what?

[cheezyWXguy]

uhhh wow.

Nam 0z sounding in Dallas. Contaminated, yes, but is still a good representation of the conditions depicted by the model. Seems to be latching onto the idea that favorable shear and sufficient instability will overlap in dfw for a longer window.


free image hosting

[rwfromkansas]

Well, the HRRR is definitely ramping things up into bigger cells than it showed earlier, and more of them. I am going to be leaving as soon as I can to avoid any hailers. The temp is still going up IMBY getting close to 70, with dewpoint now in the mid-60s. Largely missed the first round to the east, so there is a big area of warmth over me and west.

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado warning for one of the cells in the severe thunderstorm watch area. The other one next to it also has rotation. It's gonna be a long day

[txtwister78]

And the NAM caves (as if we haven't heard that before). Good for temps during winter...terrible model for severe weather.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022032118/003/refcmp.us_sc.png

Caves for what?

Had almost nothing for several runs across SC and central tx up until most recent 18z output which is now more in line with HRRR.

[rwfromkansas]

Anybody know what the 18z balloon showed for DFW?

A guy I used to follow for weather is pooh-poohing it, but he has frankly gone nuts over the past year or so, so don't trust him.

The storms look pretty strong to me on radar.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Watch has been issued for Texas, it's not the PDS watch, but I'm sure it's close to one.

[txtwister78]

[HockeyTx82]

Tornado Watch has been issued for Texas, it's not the PDS watch, but I'm sure it's close to one.

You can't say that. Either is a PDS or is not. You don't know internally what they talked about and it makes no mention in the explanation that I saw.

[Tireman4]

True TX weather...blizzard warning out for Amarillo region now. Amazing.

Well, you know..Texas is going to....Texas...

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Watch has been issued for Texas, it's not the PDS watch, but I'm sure it's close to one.

You can't say that. Either is a PDS or is not. You don't know internally what they talked about and it makes no mention in the explanation that I saw.

Whoops, I did not see that post!

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a tornado on the ground heading towards Jacksboro. Debris ball and very strong rotation.

[Tireman4]

Tornado Warning
TXC237-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.220321T2046Z-220321T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Jack County in north central Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 346 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located 7 miles east
of Bryson, or 9 miles southwest of Jacksboro, moving northeast at
35 mph. This tornado is headed for Jacksboro. Seek shelter now!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic storm will be near...
Jacksboro around 405 PM CDT.
Newport around 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3344 9798 3343 9792 3324 9792 3304 9824
3312 9840 3347 9807 3347 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 222DEG 32KT 3312 9826

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Gordon

[Bhow]

STP really spikes over Austin between 5-6. I hope people left early and there isn’t the typical rush hour parking lot on 35 and mopac

[dpep4]

Dagnabbit, sun has broken through in Fort Worth.