Texas Spring 2022

[txtwister78]

Some decent agreement on the 12z globals this afternoon for mid next week but of course still several days to see how it all evolves.

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty big bust for Lafayette, LA today. Not a single severe warning within 50+ miles on a day with a very rare (for here) 4/5 Moderate risk. At least we picked up .62" of rain since we are entering another very long dry stretch.

[Brent]

EF3 in Jacksboro is so far the most significant tornado found

[HockeyTx82]

EF3 in Jacksboro is so far the most significant tornado found

Goes back to what I said yesterday. They were in. SVR Thunderstorm Watch....... odd choice for that part of Texas imo from SPC

[Haris]

2 in the metroplex

[Ntxw]

EF3 in Jacksboro is so far the most significant tornado found

Goes back to what I said yesterday. They were in. SVR Thunderstorm Watch....... odd choice for that part of Texas imo from SPC

One of the most underrated locations in a strong wound up system is the triple point. The area where the cold front, dry line, and warm front intersect. The dynamics are some of the best for severe/tornadic activity, even with a limited atmosphere. There was an EF4 tornado up in Iowa earlier in the month in a similar feature. Had the system been a little further east the triple point would have been a few counties over in Denton and Collin.

[ElectricStorm]

Kingston, OK tornado prelim EF2 but NWS says it isn't expected to go any higher. Still though, a sigtor in that area was rather unexpected

[HockeyTx82]

EF3 in Jacksboro is so far the most significant tornado found

Goes back to what I said yesterday. They were in. SVR Thunderstorm Watch....... odd choice for that part of Texas imo from SPC

One of the most underrated locations in a strong wound up system is the triple point. The area where the cold front, dry line, and warm front intersect. The dynamics are some of the best for severe/tornadic activity, even with a limited atmosphere. There was an EF4 tornado up in Iowa earlier in the month in a similar feature. Had the system been a little further east the triple point would have been a few counties over in Denton and Collin.

Don't jinx me. But yes I agree. Still begs the question why the Thunderstorm vs Tornado Watch if that's the case.

That Tornado in Carrollton, the funnel went right over my mom's house. Unlike good advice she went outside with my stepdad looking for it...... he grew up in Joplin. In fact his mom was in that nursing home that got hit by the EF5 and she survived. She had dementia so remembered nothing of it.

[rwfromkansas]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/x6RGYd6/98249399-D15-E-4002-8-D44-BB74-B952-F7-B7.jpg [/url]

2 in the metroplex

I believe the 100mph plot in Tarrant is incorrect. That was south of 820. There wasn’t even a warning where that was plotted. I was paying close attention since I was in the northern edge of the warning last night.

[Iceresistance]

Only got up to 41/42°F today, one of the coldest highs of Late March!

[Brent]

Only got up to 41/42°F today, one of the coldest highs of Late March!

Pretty sure our high for the day was this morning but yeah it's chilly now

[HockeyTx82]

Just another day in Texas. At least it put him upright so he could continue on his way.

https://youtu.be/KU3A25IOoEk

[captainbarbossa19]

Just another day in Texas. At least it put him upright so he could continue on his way.

https://youtu.be/KU3A25IOoEk

I wonder if the person in the truck saw the tornado coming and couldn't escape or if they thought they should chase it and got trapped?

[Ntxw]

Not Texas but New Orleans got hit by a big tornado in the lower 9th ward and st Bernard parish today. Some of the video and damage is pretty intense.

[ElectricStorm]

Models may be starting to hint at another potential severe weather event about a week from now. SPC started to mention it in today's extended outlook. It's a ways out, but something to watch.

[Iceresistance]

Models may be starting to hint at another potential severe weather event about a week from now. SPC started to mention it in today's extended outlook. It's a ways out, but something to watch.

Just before that is a mini heatwave with Highs in the Mid-80s & dew points reaching the 60s, plenty of moisture for any storms that develop during that time-frame.

[Brent]

[cheezyWXguy]

:eek:

https://i.ibb.co/p2vcRkc/20220323-145703.jpg

Yeah this could be one for both the plains and the Deep South this time. The gfs has been surprisingly consistent over the past few runs, although it keeps skipping around with the placement of the surface low between KS/NE or NW TX closer to the 500mb center. No point in getting bogged down with surface features at this point though, way too far out. Euro seems horribly inconsistent and cmc is somewhere in between.

[Iceresistance]

:eek:

https://i.ibb.co/p2vcRkc/20220323-145703.jpg

Yeah this could be one for both the plains and the Deep South this time. The gfs has been surprisingly consistent over the past few runs, although it keeps skipping around with the placement of the surface low between KS/NE or NW TX closer to the 500mb center. No point in getting bogged down with surface features at this point though, way too far out. Euro seems horribly inconsistent and cmc is somewhere in between.

I don't know Mike Ventrice very well, how trusted are his forecasts?

[ElectricStorm]

:eek:

https://i.ibb.co/p2vcRkc/20220323-145703.jpg

Yeah this could be one for both the plains and the Deep South this time. The gfs has been surprisingly consistent over the past few runs, although it keeps skipping around with the placement of the surface low between KS/NE or NW TX closer to the 500mb center. No point in getting bogged down with surface features at this point though, way too far out. Euro seems horribly inconsistent and cmc is somewhere in between.

I don't know Mike Ventrice very well, how trusted are his forecasts?

I don't really follow him but I think that's some sort of an automated program he set up. From what I've seen it tends to run way too high, like I think it had a 45% area for yesterday while in reality it was a 15. But the area of severe seems pretty decent. But like I said I don't really know much about it.