Texas Spring 2022

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hriverajr
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#781 Postby hriverajr » Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Models are convening as some have posted, being April there will be severe weather risks. Though with the further north low track, any rainfall forecasts, begrudgingly, I'd cut it in half for seasonal trends.


Not looking good for the southern half of the state. Luckily for me I’ve picked up over 3.50” so far this month.


I'm in Del Rio. Since the beginning of the year have only had .15 of rain here at my home. Pretty bad situation here.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#782 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:18 am

hriverajr wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Models are convening as some have posted, being April there will be severe weather risks. Though with the further north low track, any rainfall forecasts, begrudgingly, I'd cut it in half for seasonal trends.


Not looking good for the southern half of the state. Luckily for me I’ve picked up over 3.50” so far this month.


I'm in Del Rio. Since the beginning of the year have only had .15 of rain here at my home. Pretty bad situation here.


That’s just catastrophic. I don’t know how people can live out there. It would be a really bad place to live for someone who’s passionate about the weather.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#783 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:25 am

I was so glad to leave Midland. Hated the dust storms and dryness. Always, every time, got a sinus infection after the dust blew. We did get snow a bit easier, but not often. Some say the desert is pretty. I don’t get how brown is pretty. Exception is Arizona due to mountains etc.

Anyway, Tuesday looks interesting. But, primarily overnight. Hopefully it can be a bigger mass of rain than the usual skinny line.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#784 Postby Ntxw » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:30 am

Looks like La Nina is going to continue through at least the Fall. This will be the rare third year Nina.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#785 Postby lukem » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:57 am

Ntxw wrote:Looks like La Nina is going to continue through at least the Fall. This will be the rare third year Nina.


We were in a La Nina last summer, correct? Any chance we see a repeat of the cool/wet weather this summer? I know El Ninos often have hot dry summers, so I was hoping La Nina was maybe the opposite.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#786 Postby Ntxw » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:01 am

lukem wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Looks like La Nina is going to continue through at least the Fall. This will be the rare third year Nina.


We were in a La Nina last summer, correct? Any chance we see a repeat of the cool/wet weather this summer? I know El Ninos often have hot dry summers, so I was hoping La Nina was maybe the opposite.


That will largely depend on the drought situation broad scale. We've entered a period of severe to exceptional drought. La Nina's + drought is precursor to hot summer feedback. A couple of rainfalls here and there every few weeks won't cut it. Need 2-3 months of persistent rainfall. El Nino and La Nina can have mixed signals, but make no doubt about it a drought will bring a hot summer almost guaranteed.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#787 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:
lukem wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Looks like La Nina is going to continue through at least the Fall. This will be the rare third year Nina.


We were in a La Nina last summer, correct? Any chance we see a repeat of the cool/wet weather this summer? I know El Ninos often have hot dry summers, so I was hoping La Nina was maybe the opposite.


That will largely depend on the drought situation broad scale. We've entered a period of severe to exceptional drought. La Nina's + drought is precursor to hot summer feedback. A couple of rainfalls here and there every few weeks won't cut it. Need 2-3 months of persistent rainfall. El Nino and La Nina can have mixed signals, but make no doubt about it a drought will bring a hot summer almost guaranteed.


Yeah I'm not very optimistic about summer right now I mean maybe we can pick up a more rain but if we don't yeah it's gonna suck most likely no way around it
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#788 Postby Haris » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Not looking good for the southern half of the state. Luckily for me I’ve picked up over 3.50” so far this month.


I'm in Del Rio. Since the beginning of the year have only had .15 of rain here at my home. Pretty bad situation here.


That’s just catastrophic. I don’t know how people can live out there. It would be a really bad place to live for someone who’s passionate about the weather.


I would never move anywhere S or W of Austin. This is my extreme limit
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#789 Postby Ntxw » Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:47 pm

Aside from the trending backwards with qpf, there will be some high fire danger before and after the system next week. Sub 990mb deepening low pressure will generate brisk winds.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#790 Postby hriverajr » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:27 pm

Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
I'm in Del Rio. Since the beginning of the year have only had .15 of rain here at my home. Pretty bad situation here.


That’s just catastrophic. I don’t know how people can live out there. It would be a really bad place to live for someone who’s passionate about the weather.


I would never move anywhere S or W of Austin. This is my extreme limit


Good chance our summer will be quite exceptional and not in a good way. Who knows something can always change. There is no spring greenery here. Absolutely none.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#791 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:31 pm

Probably not a good sign for summer when DFW may hit 90 tomorrow :spam:
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#792 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:37 am

Brent wrote:Probably not a good sign for summer when DFW may hit 90 tomorrow :spam:


It would be a truly bad sign if it was in February, but it's almost April.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#793 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:44 am

Broad Slight Risk in place for most of Texas & Oklahoma

Image
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/Broad-Slight-Risk.gif
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#794 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:48 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Probably not a good sign for summer when DFW may hit 90 tomorrow :spam:


It would be a truly bad sign if it was in February, but it's almost April.

The average first 90 for DFW is about three weeks into April so it is quite early for 90s. It will be a 90 without humidity so that is a plus. The fam and I have a day planned walking around downtown Grapevine so it will be hot no matter what. I'm thinking a large margarita from Esparzas will help with the heat.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#795 Postby Quixotic » Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:04 am

Brent wrote:Probably not a good sign for summer when DFW may hit 90 tomorrow :spam:

Meh. Ninas are notorious for this. 96 we went from a low of 8 to a high of 98 two weeks later in February. Don’t recall the summer being all that hot. It’s a lot of dry air.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#796 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 27, 2022 12:27 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Probably not a good sign for summer when DFW may hit 90 tomorrow :spam:


It would be a truly bad sign if it was in February, but it's almost April.

The average first 90 for DFW is about three weeks into April so it is quite early for 90s. It will be a 90 without humidity so that is a plus. The fam and I have a day planned walking around downtown Grapevine so it will be hot no matter what. I'm thinking a large margarita from Esparzas will help with the heat.

I'm going to be in Grapevine in June, as part of my Vacation Season. :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#797 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Mar 27, 2022 2:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
It would be a truly bad sign if it was in February, but it's almost April.

The average first 90 for DFW is about three weeks into April so it is quite early for 90s. It will be a 90 without humidity so that is a plus. The fam and I have a day planned walking around downtown Grapevine so it will be hot no matter what. I'm thinking a large margarita from Esparzas will help with the heat.

I'm going to be in Grapevine in June, as part of my Vacation Season. :lol:

I recommend Esparzas on Worth St. just off Main. Good food but the margaritas are strong. You are too young anyway. :D
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#798 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 27, 2022 2:53 pm

There are two drought years that did feature relatively cool summers 2013 and 2014. Both did see a rise in sunspot activity like now and both did feature dominant -EPO throughout the year.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#799 Postby Brent » Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:31 pm

91 at DFW although it is a dry heat :lol:

It's crazy because up here I'm still not above 70 :lol: been cooler than forecast for days
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#800 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:40 pm

Brent wrote:91 at DFW although it is a dry heat :lol:

It's crazy because up here I'm still not above 70 :lol: been cooler than forecast for days


Since 2000 there have been two years where the first 90F or greater occurred in March at DFW, 2006 and 2017.
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