Texas Spring 2022

[somethingfunny]

Surprised we pulled out over an inch in my Richardson backyard last night... 1.2"! 3.74" on the month and 5.89" for the year so far. Could be better... But could be much worse.

[captainbarbossa19]

Surprised we pulled out over an inch in my Richardson backyard last night... 1.2"! 3.74" on the month and 5.89" for the year so far. Could be better... But could be much worse.

Definitely not 2011 levels of rain, thankfully.

[Cpv17]

Surprised we pulled out over an inch in my Richardson backyard last night... 1.2"! 3.74" on the month and 5.89" for the year so far. Could be better... But could be much worse.

Definitely not 2011 levels of rain, thankfully.

In 2011 I only received about 11” the entire year.

I got 4” this month alone.

[rwfromkansas]

Surprised we pulled out over an inch in my Richardson backyard last night... 1.2"! 3.74" on the month and 5.89" for the year so far. Could be better... But could be much worse.

Definitely not 2011 levels of rain, thankfully.

In 2011 I only received about 11” the entire year.

I got 4” this month alone.

Wow. That is the amount of rain I averaged when I lived in the West Texas desert. Insane how bad 2011 was.

[Ntxw]

For DFW 2011 rain wise wasn't actually that bad. For north Texas 25" for the year 2011, 2014 actually had less with 21" (yet a coolish summer). It's not in particular a signal of a hot year, but any significant drought large scale can set stage for one if the right atmospheric pattern settles in and feedback locks it. If we had significant soil moisture then it can negate the ridging from amplifying.

It's cumulative the long term drought. The region doing best currently is the Austin-SAT-Hou corridor and deep south Texas. The rest of the state is not in great shape and we need 8-12" of surplus to make up the loss. Spring is a wet season and we'll see rainfall but is it going to make up the deficit or add to it once summer (dry season) arrives?

[Iceresistance]

There's BIG Wildfires in Southern Texas right now, Flowerton, TX is under Fire Evacuation orders right now because of a wildfire.

[captainbarbossa19]

For DFW 2011 rain wise wasn't actually that bad. For north Texas 25" for the year 2011, 2014 actually had less with 21" (yet a coolish summer). It's not in particular a signal of a hot year, but any significant drought large scale can set stage for one if the right atmospheric pattern settles in and feedback locks it. If we had significant soil moisture then it can negate the ridging from amplifying.

It's cumulative the long term drought. The region doing best currently is the Austin-SAT-Hou corridor and deep south Texas. The rest of the state is not in great shape and we need 8-12" of surplus to make up the loss. Spring is a wet season and we'll see rainfall but is it going to make up the deficit or add to it once summer (dry season) arrives?

https://i.imgur.com/O5A3RT5.png

One thing somewhat misleading about dry conditions on this map is that prior to the last 180 days featured an exceptionally wet summer for most of SE and East Texas. Average rainfall for the year was very close to normal for these areas. The past 180 days have certainly been much drier, but with the excessive rainfall prior to this point, ground moisture levels are really not as dry as this map seems to imply. Also, keep in mind that evapotranspiration levels are much lower during winter into early spring compared to summer and fall. With that being said, if my area were to receive 8-12 inches like this map says we have as a deficit, we would have problems with flooding. Of course, if the rainfall was spread out over about a week, this would not be an issue. We are technically in a meteorological drought, but sometimes this does not mean that an area should receive a surplus of rainfall at some point to make up for the lost average rain. In my opinion, ground dryness is the best way to determine how severe drought is for an area.

[Iceresistance]

Take his forecasts as a Grain of Salt, but another outbreak is possible in Texas on April 4th

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1509251920657006601

[rwfromkansas]

Take his forecasts as a Grain of Salt, but another outbreak is possible in Texas on April 4th

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1509251920657006601?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I am skeptical, but he was right lessening Texas severe the day before yesterday. So, maybe it has some merit.

[Ntxw]

For DFW 2011 rain wise wasn't actually that bad. For north Texas 25" for the year 2011, 2014 actually had less with 21" (yet a coolish summer). It's not in particular a signal of a hot year, but any significant drought large scale can set stage for one if the right atmospheric pattern settles in and feedback locks it. If we had significant soil moisture then it can negate the ridging from amplifying.

It's cumulative the long term drought. The region doing best currently is the Austin-SAT-Hou corridor and deep south Texas. The rest of the state is not in great shape and we need 8-12" of surplus to make up the loss. Spring is a wet season and we'll see rainfall but is it going to make up the deficit or add to it once summer (dry season) arrives?

https://i.imgur.com/O5A3RT5.png

One thing somewhat misleading about dry conditions on this map is that prior to the last 180 days featured an exceptionally wet summer for most of SE and East Texas. Average rainfall for the year was very close to normal for these areas. The past 180 days have certainly been much drier, but with the excessive rainfall prior to this point, ground moisture levels are really not as dry as this map seems to imply. Also, keep in mind that evapotranspiration levels are much lower during winter into early spring compared to summer and fall. With that being said, if my area were to receive 8-12 inches like this map says we have as a deficit, we would have problems with flooding. Of course, if the rainfall was spread out over about a week, this would not be an issue. We are technically in a meteorological drought, but sometimes this does not mean that an area should receive a surplus of rainfall at some point to make up for the lost average rain. In my opinion, ground dryness is the best way to determine how severe drought is for an area.

The PDO is currently negative and with no aspect of a Nino soon the drier than normal settings are unlikely to change. That doesn't flip overnight it takes seasons to years. That's the thing though long term, conventional wisdom says it will continue. CPC drought maps are not made for fun, there is a large area of Texas in severe to exceptional drought conditions and it will persist. It is not limited to Texas it is a large scale problem across the entire western half of the US. When I said surplus of course you want it over months. Preferably each month you would want a few inches above normal, but that hasn't been happening.

I certainly hope it improves but it's better to be ready for it because it's here.

[Ntxw]

And here is the soil moisture from NOAA. The ground is dry for a large area of real estate, right now it is somewhat masked by the spring growth but in time, unless things change drastically we may likely see an earlier browning/yellowing of vegetation.



This may not be 2011, likely not, but it's definitely a period of weakest rainfall since we got out of the last drought years prior to 2015 and the PDO suggest it's a long haul.

[hriverajr]

And here is the soil moisture from NOAA. The ground is dry for a large area of real estate, right now it is somewhat masked by the spring growth but in time, unless things change drastically we may likely see an earlier browning/yellowing of vegetation.

https://i.imgur.com/NomvYIt.png

This may not be 2011, likely not, but it's definitely a period of weakest rainfall since we got out of the last drought years prior to 2015 and the PDO suggest it's a long haul.

Spring growth? What's that (DRT)

[captainbarbossa19]

And here is the soil moisture from NOAA. The ground is dry for a large area of real estate, right now it is somewhat masked by the spring growth but in time, unless things change drastically we may likely see an earlier browning/yellowing of vegetation.

https://i.imgur.com/NomvYIt.png

This may not be 2011, likely not, but it's definitely a period of weakest rainfall since we got out of the last drought years prior to 2015 and the PDO suggest it's a long haul.

Great maps, thank you for sharing. I do not deny that we are in a drier than normal pattern right now, but my point I am trying to make is that this year is most likely not going to be record-breaking dry like 2011. Hopefully we get out of negative ENSO after this fall and return to neutral or positive territory by this upcoming winter/spring 2023. At some point soon, ENSO will stop being negative. It's just now a question of when.

[TheProfessor]

Woke up to a solid 2-3" of snow on the ground lol. We will likely finish right at 4" of rain for the month which is great for up here.

Long-term definitely looks bleak with a possible 3rd year La Nina, however these short term victories can have an influence on medium term weather. At least here in the Central Plains I'm confident that if we can stay wet in April our main severe season (May/June) should be active as long as the MJO is relatively friendly. Further south it is a different story with April and early May being the more favorable months.

[Iceresistance]

Already worth watching, even though it's on April 4th


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/day5p24iwbg_fill-1.gif

[Iceresistance]

Tornado count so far in 2022, as of March 25th

2021 did not feature 200+ Tornadoes already, but 2022 now does


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/2022_United_States_tornado_count.png

[HockeyTx82]

Tornado count so far in 2022, as of March 25th

2021 did not feature 200+ Tornadoes already, but 2022 now does

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/2022_United_States_tornado_count.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/2022_United_States_tornado_count.png

So are these confirmed touchdowns or just radar indicated rotation?

Big difference.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado count so far in 2022, as of March 25th

2021 did not feature 200+ Tornadoes already, but 2022 now does

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/2022_United_States_tornado_count.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/2022_United_States_tornado_count.png

So are these confirmed touchdowns or just radar indicated rotation?

Big difference.

All confirmed tornadoes from the NWS, it'll update once every several days because some previously undetected tornadoes get discovered or more than 1 reported on the same tornado, the NWS has a good ratio calculation to avoid overcount.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1509362540706414592

Tornado in Springdale, AR has been rated EF3. As far as I'm aware this is the first EF3 in TSA's CWA since 2010. There was a likely EF3-EF4+ on 11/30/18 but it was rated EF2 as it didn't hit much thankfully.

[Haris]

make image url
Would be helpful for at least some