Texas Spring 2022

[bubba hotep]

March was a tale of two DFW's with Eastern (esp NE) DFW getting nice rains while western portions of DFW really struggled. Much of the NE burbs got b/w 3-4" while areas from the airport west got about half of that. We jackpotted pretty good IMBY, and a small local pond went from very low at the beginning of March to totally full.

[Iceresistance]

Brief burst of rain at my house

[Ntxw]

April climo wise is the peak tornado activity month for North TX and Southern Oklahoma. May shifts to Central and Western Oklahoma. Nothing too wild on radar (yet) we've had some cool down periods. Perhaps mid month, would love some rain.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 slight risk up for Sunday for wind and hail. Shouldn't be anything crazy but still needs to be watched. Hopefully these areas at least get some good rain to help with the drought.

[bubba hotep]

A large portion of the state is highlighted in the D3. Hopefully, this comes with some widespread rainfall.

[Ntxw]

Models have been backing off qpf inside 5 days. Does look like April chill end of the week. QPF 0.75-1.25 optimistically. April, May, and early June are the bread and butter months for rainfall.

[ElectricStorm]

Updated outlook for Sunday

[bubba hotep]

Need to watch trends but the 06z 3K NAM looks pretty good for those north of I20

[Haris]

Need to watch trends but the 06z 3K NAM looks pretty good for those north of I20

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022040306/060/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Lol the 12z hrrr is even more bullish

[cheezyWXguy]

I initially wasn’t paying much attention to this event, but I think it’s worth it now. In addition to the rainfall potential shown above, I wouldn’t sleep on the severe threat, even though this isn’t exactly a high end event.

A couple things are different than the overnight event last week that didn’t amount to much, at least going by the NAM. For one, the timing is earlier, around 9pm-12am, instead for 3-4am. Instability is a fair bit higher too. And most notable to me is that flow at the surface is much more backed from the se, instead of the last event where flow was out of the ssw. Pairing this with a storm motion that’s not as parallel to the boundary, these storms look like they’ll have more of a shot at taking in surface flow and realizing some degree of tornado potential, probably a few qlcs spinups but nothing too crazy.

[Iceresistance]

Need to watch trends but the 06z 3K NAM looks pretty good for those north of I20

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022040306/060/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Lol the 12z hrrr is even more bullish

For some reason, the HRRR always has the only storm of today over me.

[Iceresistance]

The wind outside is just crazy right now

[rwfromkansas]

Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow.

So, while I think fairly low-end, should actually have a good amount of severe probably.

[rwfromkansas]

Latest NAM has a dry hole under me. Again. Would be nice to be a jackpot for once.

[bubba hotep]

Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow.

So, while I think fairly low-end, should actually have a good amount of severe probably.

Based on 12z hi-res, I also expect an upgrade for the excessive rainfall outlook. Here is the current:

[Ntxw]

Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow.

So, while I think fairly low-end, should actually have a good amount of severe probably.

For our region the enhanced is for the MCS in the evening. Good LLJ.

[txtwister78]

More of a damaging wind threat overall for the DFW region tomorrow. Could be some embedded spin ups but a messy/clustered storm mode with minimal instability should keep the hail/tornado threat on the lower end of the severe scale I think. Of course it just takes one. Good soaking rain opportunity though for that region.

[bubba hotep]

Day 2 upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow.

So, while I think fairly low-end, should actually have a good amount of severe probably.

For our region the enhanced is for the MCS in the evening. Good LLJ.

It seems like it's been a while since we've seen a big MCS move through N. Texas. IIRC, timing has been off the past couple of springs with MCS arriving as they were deteriorating.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the SPC is seeing the same things I was. It’ll be interesting to see what the 18z NAM and HRRR show

[Iceresistance]

There's some storms in Western Texas right now