Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Had a brief small barrage of Positive Lightning strikes.

[Iceresistance]

Had a THUNDERBANG of a Positive Strike! That strike SCARED me!

[Cpv17]

I’ll take 3-4” of rain.

Heck yeah, you got that right. Maybe towards mid month areas south of I-10 might get in on the action. At least I’m hoping.

[Iceresistance]

Another Thunderbang earlier, but it's nothing compared to the first one.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...Central/North-Central Texas and extreme
South-Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 042325Z - 050100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 0030-0100z for
portions of Central/North-Central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Moist boundary-layer surge, characterized by mid 60s
surface dew points, is advancing north across central TX and will
soon spread into the Metroplex. Latest satellite and radar imagery
support this with scattered showers now evident just east of Waco
into Ellis County. Given the approaching short wave there is
increasing concern that scattered supercells will evolve within this
more buoyant, and strongly sheared environment. Current thinking is
the warm frontal position may not advance appreciably north from its
current position and given the amount of convection observed over
southern OK this seems reasonable. As LLJ strengthens into the
Arklatex this evening there is increasing concern for the potential
for tornadoes. Tornado watch will likely be warranted by 01z across
this region.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/04/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

[rwfromkansas]

The latest FWD graphic targets north of DFW. Hope it’s too conservative.

[bubba hotep]

I would watch for any front runners that can fire on the nose of that moisture surge.

[Iceresistance]

3rd Powerful Thunderbang, shook the entire house!

[rwfromkansas]

Nothing really developing west/southwest of DFW. Expected it much further south.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

I'm now under a Flash Flood Warning, fun . . .

[gpsnowman]

Nothing really developing west/southwest of DFW. Expected it much further south.

Yeah the trajectory isn't quite there yet for Tarrant and Dallas counties. Hopefully it fills in soon.

[Ntxw]

Not too overly impressed with the severe factor, but pretty good rains in the Red River counties.

[rwfromkansas]

Tarrant getting the screw job again. Again. Just rinse and repeat.

[Ntxw]

Tarrant getting the screw job again. Again. Just rinse and repeat.

If we believe the short range models there should be a skinny line forming from the southwest and west but there's an outflow boundary blowing out now so not sure. It'll be really skinny though.

[bubba hotep]

Tarrant getting the screw job again. Again. Just rinse and repeat.

Some storms building back to the SW. This will be a multicellular blob vs. a line of storms. Some places will only get one round but others will see multiple rounds, that's how the models get 3-4" in an area.

[Haris]

Patience is a word

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado warning and solid meso just E of Denton

[gpsnowman]

Tornado warning and solid meso just E of Denton

It is near the town of Aubrey. We have a forum member from Aubrey. Denton county is getting hammered, Collin is next.