2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

What you see in May and June related to the sst's in Eastern Atlantic will be the correlation to ACE for whole season.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1511094894428782592

[Category5Kaiju]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYCbh1Rs/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

Except if I recall correctly, that used to be glaringly +ENSO earlier this year (meaning the trend has been cooler over the past months or so)

There seems to be a trend towards a warmer ENSO for this winter:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QBfSnVw/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/d3Z9jCfS/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-8.png

I wonder what could be causing this.

Oh, ok well I was thinking about the initilization dates in February and January and recall how the Cfv2 was predicting a much more potent +ENSO by the end of this year compared to now. I would caution though, there definitely could be something where the Cfv2 is trying to ever so slightly correct for its cold bias. Also, keep in mind that the initialization dates you just posted are relatively close to one another (end of March, very early April), so that alone is not statistically powerful and well indicative of how things will turn out later this year. Honestly, let's face it: there simply is not enough evidence and forcing that would favor an El Nino to form this year, and even +ENSO might be difficult to achieve given the lack of major, sustained WWBs over the Pacific so far. While I am not expecting any crazy low -ENSO this year, I certainly wouldn't expect an El Nino or, at least, bank on a +ENSO state from happening based on chance alone.

[dexterlabio]

What is the longest streak that the ATL had been above-average? I believe the current streak is the longest (since 2016).

[tolakram]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYCbh1Rs/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

Except if I recall correctly, that used to be glaringly +ENSO earlier this year (meaning the trend has been cooler over the past months or so)

There seems to be a trend towards a warmer ENSO for this winter:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QBfSnVw/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/d3Z9jCfS/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-8.png

I wonder what could be causing this.

The spring barrier that makes seasonal forecasting prior to May so difficult. IMO.

[Shell Mound]

What you see in May and June related to the sst's in Eastern Atlantic will be the correlation to ACE for whole season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1511094894428782592

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1511124840627019784




On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1511322430857519106







Hyperactive ACE (>160) on the conservative EC + strong ridging matching composite of big FL hits + -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD ->

[Category5Kaiju]

What you see in May and June related to the sst's in Eastern Atlantic will be the correlation to ACE for whole season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1511094894428782592

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1511124840627019784

On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1511322430857519106

https://i.ibb.co/mvm6MbW/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-15-43-57.png
https://i.ibb.co/z8GnBwb/FLhits.gif

Hyperactive ACE (>160) on the conservative EC + strong ridging matching composite of big FL hits + -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD ->

Yikes.

When Shell Mound gets concerned, that is a cue to be prepared.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is a mixed bag.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1511339321646895112

[AutoPenalti]

That could explain the slightly above average ACE numbers.

[Shell Mound]

That could explain the slightly above average ACE numbers.

Actually, the raw EC data indicate that the modelled output suggests a hyperactive season. Seasonal ACE through October 2022 that is 30% higher than the mean of ~135 would equate to ~175, which is above the threshold (~160) for hyperactivity. For some reason the EC’s precipitation and SST fields do not always match the model’s raw output. Given that last season ended up featuring more CV-type long-trackers than 2020 did despite lower May–June SST in the MDR, 2022 will likely be at least as active as last year insofar as CV-type long-trackers are concerned. I would be surprised if we ended up with fewer than two long-trackers, all other factors being equal.

Comparison between MJ SST in the MDR in 2021 vs. 2020:



Despite featuring cooler SST during the aforementioned timeframe, 2021 eventually yielded the CV-type long-trackers Larry and Sam, whereas 2020 only featured Teddy. Also, note that 2022 to date has featured far more equatorial warmth east of South America than the previous season did. The Canary Current to date in 2022 has also been warmer than in either 2020 or 2021 at this time. There is more persistent warmth over the northern North Atlantic than in either of those two seasons to date. This suggests that 2022’s AMO is higher than some indices suggest, and that the potential is there for the equatorial warmth to migrate northward come ASO.



March 2022’s SSTs offshore of Greenland and Iceland were warmer than the mean of the past two Marches’.

[SFLcane]

Were is that ACE coming from? Yikes to that Z500 prediction if it indeed came to pass.

[AlphaToOmega]

What you see in May and June related to the sst's in Eastern Atlantic will be the correlation to ACE for whole season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1511094894428782592

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1511124840627019784

On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1511322430857519106

https://i.ibb.co/mvm6MbW/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-15-43-57.png
https://i.ibb.co/z8GnBwb/FLhits.gif

Hyperactive ACE (>160) on the conservative EC + strong ridging matching composite of big FL hits + -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD ->

2021 did not achieve hyperactivity because of the Atlantic Nino, which suppressed ITCZ to the South. Without the Atlantic Nino, 2021 would have probably seen major hurricanes in October and/or November, brining it up to hyperactive levels. It only needed 17 more ACE to achieve that.

Also, a hyperactive season is not guaranteed. The ECMWF also forecasted an ACE 30% above the 1993-2016 mean for 2021, but that did not verify. This might or might not verify, but it is too early to tell.

[aspen]

ECMWF is a mixed bag.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1511339321646895112

I think we could see another 20+ NS, quantity-over-quality season with a lot of shorties in the subtropics. If the MDR ends up being too stable, we could have to worry about west-shifted activity like in 2020.

[Teban54]

On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

I could be totally wrong on this, but wasn't the EC showing similarly high ACE last year at around this time, higher than past years including 2020? IIRC it was showing ~160, which didn't verify.

Of course it can just be an anomaly, but is it possible that Euro is now having a high bias in ACE, or correcting its low bias that was demonstrated earlier in this active streak?

(Feels so weird to be tampering down Shell Mound's expectations...)

[AlphaToOmega]

I would like to mention something few have mentioned: the Atlantic Nino/Nina.

For all of its faults (especially with AMM), the ECMWF does a pretty good job forecasting Atlantic Nino. It foresaw the Atlantic Nino of 2021 and the Atlantic Nada of 2020. I have ten current analogs for 2022, and they can be separated into two groups: Atlantic Nino and no Atlantic Nino.

1. +AtlNino: 1999, 2007, 2008, and 2021
2. -AtlNino: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020

I have always kept the Atlantic Nino as a tossup. However, with the new ECMWF monthly, I think I am ready to change that to leaning -AtlNino, meaning that an Atlantic Nina is favored for ASO this year.



What would this mean? This would mean that the ITCZ would not be suppressed to the south like it was in 2021. The Coriolis Force would not be an issue, and the Caribbean development would actually be possible (unlike in 2021). Of course, this could change, but the Gulf of Guinea is shaping up to be cooler than last year.

[Category5Kaiju]

I would like to mention something few have mentioned: the Atlantic Nino/Nina.

For all of its faults (especially with AMM), the ECMWF does a pretty good job forecasting Atlantic Nino. It foresaw the Atlantic Nino of 2021 and the Atlantic Nada of 2020. I have ten current analogs for 2022, and they can be separated into two groups: Atlantic Nino and no Atlantic Nino.

1. +AtlNino: 1999, 2007, 2008, and 2021
2. -AtlNino: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020

I have always kept the Atlantic Nino as a tossup. However, with the new ECMWF monthly, I think I am ready to change that to leaning -AtlNino, meaning that an Atlantic Nina is favored for ASO this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqjWxNsM/ps2png-worker-commands-68f4c845bf-7hxpt-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-NGuf6i.png

What would this mean? This would mean that the ITCZ would not be suppressed to the south like it was in 2021. The Coriolis Force would not be an issue, and the Caribbean development would actually be possible (unlike in 2021). Of course, this could change, but the Gulf of Guinea is shaping up to be cooler than last year.

The Atlantic Nino last year was just phenomenal. It was so intense that the otherwise poorly studied phenomenon started grabbing the attention of many weather-goers, and I honestly think that had that not happened last year, "Atlantic Nino" would still be a relatively elusive term in the wx community. But yes, I do agree that this year will likely not feature such a powerful Atlantic Nino, the chances of that happening just do not seem to be there.

[NotSparta]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYCbh1Rs/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

Except if I recall correctly, that used to be glaringly +ENSO earlier this year (meaning the trend has been cooler over the past months or so)

There seems to be a trend towards a warmer ENSO for this winter:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QBfSnVw/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/d3Z9jCfS/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-8.png

I wonder what could be causing this.

Might just be the change in month from March to April, for some reason that messes with the CFS SST forecasts

[Shell Mound]

ECMWF is a mixed bag.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1511339321646895112

I think we could see another 20+ NS, quantity-over-quality season with a lot of shorties in the subtropics. If the MDR ends up being too stable, we could have to worry about west-shifted activity like in 2020.

Not so fast:

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1511402424354889733




You will also need to explain how 2021 ended up with a more intense CV system than 2020 did despite featuring cooler SSTs in the MDR.

On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

I could be totally wrong on this, but wasn't the EC showing similarly high ACE last year at around this time, higher than past years including 2020? IIRC it was showing ~160, which didn't verify.

Of course it can just be an anomaly, but is it possible that Euro is now having a high bias in ACE, or correcting its low bias that was demonstrated earlier in this active streak?

(Feels so weird to be tampering down Shell Mound's expectations...)

Actually, the EC’s forecast ACE for 2021 ended up slightly below the observed total, but was otherwise almost exactly right.

As can be seen in the graphic above, ACE totals for every season since 2016 have been at least slightly underestimated.

Finally, the graphic also indicates that the forecast for ‘22 actually anticipates slightly higher ACE than was forecast for ‘21.

[Teban54]

On another note, the latest long-range EC seasonal outlook is indicating a seasonal ACE of ~175 through October 2022.

I could be totally wrong on this, but wasn't the EC showing similarly high ACE last year at around this time, higher than past years including 2020? IIRC it was showing ~160, which didn't verify.

Of course it can just be an anomaly, but is it possible that Euro is now having a high bias in ACE, or correcting its low bias that was demonstrated earlier in this active streak?

(Feels so weird to be tampering down Shell Mound's expectations...)

https://i.ibb.co/FhTnNXj/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-06-kl-09-13-44.png

Actually, the EC’s forecast ACE for 2021 ended up slightly below the observed total, but was otherwise almost exactly right.

As can be seen in the graphic above, ACE totals for every season since 2016 have been at least slightly underestimated.

Finally, the graphic also indicates that the forecast for ‘22 actually anticipates slightly higher ACE than was forecast for ‘21.

Thanks for the plot! Seems like EC's ACE forecasts are generally underestimates in active years, and overestimates in average or below-average years. (Except 2007, 2008 and 2021, but 2007 was an oddball in itself.) So that would mean it has relatively little skill after all...?

I'm also not sure if the historical data from many years back is useful. Their models have probably been updated many times over the decades. If we only consider the recent active streak, then yes, the trend of underestimations is clear (mayyybe except 2021).

But leaving aside the concerns of validity, it's interesting that the ACE forecast for 2022 is similar to 2000, which ended up below expectations and which was a 3rd year La Nina.

[AlphaToOmega]

I could be totally wrong on this, but wasn't the EC showing similarly high ACE last year at around this time, higher than past years including 2020? IIRC it was showing ~160, which didn't verify.

Of course it can just be an anomaly, but is it possible that Euro is now having a high bias in ACE, or correcting its low bias that was demonstrated earlier in this active streak?

(Feels so weird to be tampering down Shell Mound's expectations...)

https://i.ibb.co/FhTnNXj/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-06-kl-09-13-44.png

Actually, the EC’s forecast ACE for 2021 ended up slightly below the observed total, but was otherwise almost exactly right.

As can be seen in the graphic above, ACE totals for every season since 2016 have been at least slightly underestimated.

Finally, the graphic also indicates that the forecast for ‘22 actually anticipates slightly higher ACE than was forecast for ‘21.

Thanks for the plot! Seems like EC's ACE forecasts are generally underestimates in active years, and overestimates in average or below-average years. (Except 2007, 2008 and 2021, but 2007 was an oddball in itself.) So that would mean it has relatively little skill after all...?

I'm also not sure if the historical data from many years back is useful. Their models have probably been updated many times over the decades. If we only consider the recent active streak, then yes, the trend of underestimations is clear (mayyybe except 2021).

But leaving aside the concerns of validity, it's interesting that the ACE forecast for 2022 is similar to 2000, which ended up below expectations and which was a 3rd year La Nina.

That graphic is for MJJASO; hurricane season is JJASON.

[Shell Mound]

Here is an interesting question to ponder: why did 2021 feature a more intense CV season than 2020 did? 2021 featured cooler SSTs in the MDR during May–June than 2020 did, which correlates with lower seasonal ACE in the deep tropics, yet 2020 only featured one CV-type, long-lived major hurricane, Teddy, while 2021 featured two such systems, Larry and Sam. I see that some people here are expecting an inactive MDR and relatively low seasonal ACE combined with short-lived systems in the subtropics. Yet one would have expected 2021 to have been less active than 2020 in the MDR, yet the opposite proved to be the case. Moreover, 2021 featured the notorious Atlantic Niño, which should have suppressed the MDR to a greater degree than in 2020, yet 2021 featured the largest number of major hurricanes in the MDR (two) since 2017 (three). My point is this: given that 2022 will likely not feature a robust Atlantic Niño and is already featuring warmer SSTs in key regions (the Canaries, off Greenland, etc.) than 2021 did at this time, why would 2022 feature fewer strong hurricanes in the MDR than last year? After all, both 2020 and 2005 featured warmer SSTs in the MDR during May–June than 2021 did, yet ended up with fewer major hurricanes in that region.