2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is an interesting question to ponder: why did 2021 feature a more intense CV season than 2020 did? 2021 featured cooler SSTs in the MDR during May–June than 2020 did, which correlates with lower seasonal ACE in the deep tropics, yet 2020 only featured one CV-type, long-lived major hurricane, Teddy, while 2021 featured two such systems, Larry and Sam. I see that some people here are expecting an inactive MDR and relatively low seasonal ACE combined with short-lived systems in the subtropics. Yet one would have expected 2021 to have been less active than 2020 in the MDR, yet the opposite proved to be the case. Moreover, 2021 featured the notorious Atlantic Niño, which should have suppressed the MDR to a greater degree than in 2020, yet 2021 featured the largest number of major hurricanes in the MDR (two) since 2017 (three). My point is this: given that 2022 will likely not feature a robust Atlantic Niño and is already featuring warmer SSTs in key regions (the Canaries, off Greenland, etc.) than 2021 did at this time, why would 2022 feature fewer strong hurricanes in the MDR than last year? After all, both 2020 and 2005 featured warmer SSTs in the MDR during May–June than 2021 did, yet ended up with fewer major hurricanes in that region.

The Atlantic Nino pushed the ITCZ southward in 2021, causing tropical waves to develop in warmer seas in the MDR, making 2021 more MDR-based. However, near the end of the season, the southern ITCZ caused Caribbean development to become impossible despite seemingly favorable conditions in the Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1512069935614382080



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1512075724093636608



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1512073061670920210



 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1512088412655915008



 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1512089189034049538

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1512069935614382080

Interesting that warm subtropics in March actually correlates with above-average activity, instead of below-average that you might expect. Though I do wonder if that's partially a result of the rather persistent subtropical warm pool during the recent active streak skewing the data.

[AlphaToOmega]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.




While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

[SFLcane]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

[AutoPenalti]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

or unfavorable conditions past the MDR

[AutoPenalti]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks sort of similar to 2020 in terms of it being +AMO, -ENSO and +AMM and Atlantic Nina, and the possibility of a strong WAM.

[SFLcane]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

Another active season like 2010 with most storms recurving out to sea.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully, the recurve pattern establishes but I will always prepare here in PR and I am sure our friends in the islands for the worse and hoping for the best case scenario.

[cycloneye]

Analog years from CSU.

[aspen]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

or unfavorable conditions past the MDR

It looks pretty decent in the western Atlantic. The above-normal precip for the Gulf would be very concerning if it verifies. However, the eastern Caribbean looks pretty dry and maybe could end up being pretty hostile like in 2018/19.

A season dominated with strong fish storms like 2010 would be a nice change of pace from the last few years of monsters blowing up right next to land.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1512073659627630599

[NotSparta]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

I'd caution against using these maps to guage steering patterns. All you need is a brief disruption in a pattern for a storm or two to get caught in. Climate models like this can't catch that. It'd be nice if everything recurved but it's no guarantee

[Category5Kaiju]

The April NMME forecast has been released. The things to note are the +AMO, the +AMM, the -PDO, the La Nina, the Atlantic Nina, the -IOD (which is really a result of the -ENSO/-PDO pattern), and the strong WAM. Climate models have been typically biased towards a more negative AMM for the past couple of years, so to see this model forecast a +AMM is certainly intriguing.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0rnvV0y/nmme-global-pratea-2022040800-f005.png
https://i.postimg.cc/vZxVR6G5/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f005.png

While the CFSv2 might forecast ENSO-neutral conditions for this winter, the NMME ensemble still forecasts solid -ENSO for the 2022-2023 winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgnsJTkc/nmme-global-ssta-2022040800-f008.png

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

I'd caution against using these maps to guage steering patterns. All you need is a brief disruption in a pattern for a storm or two to get caught in. Climate models like this can't catch that. It'd be nice if everything recurved but it's no guarantee

Precisely. Also, how accurate were such maps in predicting the tracks of storms in years from 2016-2021? I can't imagine this being a tell-all, crystal ball for what to expect?

[Shell Mound]

Looks like a quick recurve pattern based on those precip anomalies. Other factors involved as usual

I'd caution against using these maps to guage steering patterns. All you need is a brief disruption in a pattern for a storm or two to get caught in. Climate models like this can't catch that. It'd be nice if everything recurved but it's no guarantee

Precisely. Also, how accurate were such maps in predicting the tracks of storms in years from 2016-2021? I can't imagine this being a tell-all, crystal ball for what to expect?

Based on the past five April outlooks for ASO, the placement of anomalies seems to have been rather accurate. The only qualification is that 2020 and ‘21 ended up drier than was initially forecast across much of the MDR and/or Caribbean. Nevertheless, these long-range forecasts do seem to be useful in terms of gauging general steering patterns. My guess is that the latest April NMME is probably overestimating precipitation over the MDR and underestimating the influence of the subtropical warm pool, but otherwise likely has a decent grasp of the eventual steering currents. Four out of the five past several seasons have been consistently dry over peninsular Florida and wet over the northwestern Gulf Coast (especially Texas/Louisiana). The latest April NMME seems to be déjà vu: dry over peninsular Florida, wet over the northwestern Gulf:



It seems as though Texas and Louisiana just can’t catch a break...

[tolakram]

Based on the past five April outlooks for ASO, the placement of anomalies seems to have been rather accurate. The only qualification is that 2020 and ‘21 ended up drier than was initially forecast across much of the MDR and/or Caribbean. Nevertheless, these long-range forecasts do seem to be useful in terms of gauging general steering patterns. My guess is that the latest April NMME is probably overestimating precipitation over the MDR and underestimating the influence of the subtropical warm pool, but otherwise likely has a decent grasp of the eventual steering currents. Four out of the five past several seasons have been consistently dry over peninsular Florida and wet over the northwestern Gulf Coast (especially Texas/Louisiana). The latest April NMME seems to be déjà vu: dry over peninsular Florida, wet over the northwestern Gulf:

I'm not sure why you think 2020 was usable. What are you seeing that I'm not. Green/yellow is drier, blue is wetter.



2020 storm tracks

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1512206819950702609

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1512206819950702609?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So I noticed how Ben said that Atlantic Ninos can enhance activity in his tweets, but based on what we saw last year, wouldn't it be appropriate to conclude that strong Atlantic Ninos can only help a season so much (and then if it lasts too long rob the MDR or higher latitudes of being able to feature storms?)

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1512206819950702609?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So I noticed how Ben said that Atlantic Ninos can enhance activity in his tweets, but based on what we saw last year, wouldn't it be appropriate to conclude that strong Atlantic Ninos can only help a season so much (and then if it lasts too long rob the MDR or higher latitudes of being able to feature storms?)

It can enhance it, but sometimes there's the MJO when it causes Destructive Interference across the ENTIRE world, last year's sudden shutdown of the entire tropics was very unique, & it's very difficult to get something like that to happen again in successive years.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so I figured that this thought experiment may help a bit:

I would most definitely not consider myself as an expert (an enthusiast is a better term). However, I would like to pose this question as quite frankly, I am not personally 100% sure about what the answer may be and would like to get more insight from someone who has more experience or intel. I have seen comparisons with this season and 2000, 2012, and 2021 being thrown around on social media and Storm2k for example. It is not shocking to see 2000 as that was the other active era third year La Nina, for example. 2012 was also a year that followed two La Nina years, and (I think?) based on current sst anomaly behavior 2021 is being used as a comparison as well. However, what are some factors that make 2022 (or likely will make 2022) different from each of those 3 years? No 2 seasons are mirror images, and I'd have to imagine that history can only go so far as to predict a new season's future behavior?