Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

The really high Parameters for the Severe Storms have trended south & west, I've found this sounding over OKC on the 6z GFS


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/6z-GFS-OKC-sounding.png

[ElectricStorm]

As expected, a slight west shift for Tuesdays slight risk. If we get a bit more model agreement we'll probably see some 30% areas pretty soon.

I think the GFS is too progressive for Wed and so far the SPC agrees. I wouldn't be surprised to see some west shifts there as well but that one is more uncertain for now.

[HockeyTx82]

The really high Parameters for the Severe Storms have trended south & west, I've found this sounding over OKC on the 6z GFS

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/6z-GFS-OKC-sounding.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/6z-GFS-OKC-sounding.png

Can someone break this down? I'm still not sure what I am looking at here.

[Cpv17]

The Euro isn’t lining up with what the SPC is forecasting. It barely has any qpf at all over the 15% shaded regions.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro isn’t lining up with what the SPC is forecasting. It barely has any qpf at all over the 15% shaded regions.

May have with the Instability, convective storms are somewhat difficult to forecast.

[ElectricStorm]

The really high Parameters for the Severe Storms have trended south & west, I've found this sounding over OKC on the 6z GFS

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/6z-GFS-OKC-sounding.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/6z-GFS-OKC-sounding.png

Can someone break this down? I'm still not sure what I am looking at here.

There's a lot going on there but it's basically showing a favorable environment for supercells/tornadoes. This is just one sounding on a single model run though so it's not very concerning. There's still a lot of factors at play here that could limit severe potential so it's more important to look for trends. If we start seeing consistent runs showing really favorable parameters over the next few days, then it'll be a bit more concerning but for now but for now all we can really say is severe weather is possible/likely over the 15% area.

[Ntxw]

You need convection to take advantage of the parameters. Each day is a set on its own and depending on if convection can fire and at the right time. Sometimes the days you don't expect gets the convection and advantage while the big days get capped and nothing gets going or the east. So like everything else timing and getting qpf is important.

[ElectricStorm]

Also gotta watch Sunday. Marginal risk up, but if we get a bit more moisture and we get cells that can break the cap (that's the main issue) there could be some tornado potential. Shouldn't be anything crazy, but sometimes these kind of setups can be sneaky and end up getting interesting.

[Iceresistance]

Also gotta watch Sunday. Marginal risk up, but if we get a bit more moisture and we get cells that can break the cap (that's the main issue) there could be some tornado potential. Shouldn't be anything crazy, but sometimes these kind of setups can be sneaky and end up getting interesting.

I've seen cases on when the Cap is broken, it also basically ruptures. Which allows more storms to develop.

[ElectricStorm]

CIPS analogues are starting to get a bit concerning for Tuesday, lots of big days in here including 4/2/82 (#1), 4/26/91 (#4), 5/8/2003 (#10), and a few other active days.
https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFH ... map=thbSVR

Of course these analogues don't mean this will be anything like that, it just means that the setup may be similar, as there's a lot of other factors at play here. That being said even though there's still a lot of questions and uncertainty, my concern for Tuesday is slowly starting to rise.

[cheezyWXguy]

Striking pattern shift on the 18z gfs. Even Thursday could be in the mix now if that played out. It might be starting to sniff out what the euro has been cooking

[Lagreeneyes03]

Seems like after the front Tuesday/Wednesday it's going to get pretty chilly for about 2 weeks, CPC seems to have completely flipped on the April forecast, as on March 31 Texas was in the deep red/orange for above normal temps, now as of next week for about 14 days it's way below....hmm.

[Ntxw]

Gusty southwest winds, low dewpoints, willing to bet the farm DFW beats 90 tomorrow. Does look rather chilly for mid April later in the week.

There was improvements on the latest drought update as noted above for parts of NTX. Some dropped out of extreme to severe drought.

[Brent]

Freeze warning here tonight and I'm not convinced it's the last one. Definitely gonna be another shot by next weekend despite the warmup coming tomorrow afternoon

[Iceresistance]

Didn't realize how dangerous this 18z GFS model sounding over OKC for Next Tuesday is until I checked it. & my goodness, it's extremely favorable for Powerful Supercells, even more favorable than Parts of Kansas because the LCL is less favorable there compared to here.


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/18z-GFS-Sounding-over-OKC.png

[ElectricStorm]

Biggest issue for Tuesday is the cap. As we saw a few years ago, even if the setup is "perfect", a strong cap can still completely shut it down. Considering the drought conditions out west, I'm thinking the cap is gonna be pretty dang strong. It's gonna take a lot to break it but if anything is able to, it could be a strong tornado producer. Still 5 days out though so a lot can change. It will be interesting to see what the CAMs show in a couple days, especially the HRRR. I think for now, I'm expecting a few scattered supercells with tornado potential, but with the capping concerns I'm hesitant to go with anything more than that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Biggest issue for Tuesday is the cap. As we saw a few years ago, even if the setup is "perfect", a strong cap can still completely shut it down. Considering the drought conditions out west, I'm thinking the cap is gonna be pretty dang strong. It's gonna take a lot to break it but if anything is able to, it could be a strong tornado producer. Still 5 days out though so a lot can change. It will be interesting to see what the CAMs show in a couple days, especially the HRRR. I think for now, I'm expecting a few scattered supercells with tornado potential, but with the capping concerns I'm hesitant to go with anything more than that.

It’s weird to think about, but Wednesday overnight and again Thursday could offer a higher coverage. 18z and 0z gfs now show a second lobe rounding the base of the trough behind the first one, prolonging the favorable parameter space further toward the end of the week

[ElectricStorm]

Biggest issue for Tuesday is the cap. As we saw a few years ago, even if the setup is "perfect", a strong cap can still completely shut it down. Considering the drought conditions out west, I'm thinking the cap is gonna be pretty dang strong. It's gonna take a lot to break it but if anything is able to, it could be a strong tornado producer. Still 5 days out though so a lot can change. It will be interesting to see what the CAMs show in a couple days, especially the HRRR. I think for now, I'm expecting a few scattered supercells with tornado potential, but with the capping concerns I'm hesitant to go with anything more than that.

It’s weird to think about, but Wednesday overnight and again Thursday could offer a higher coverage. 18z and 0z gfs now show a second lobe rounding the base of the trough behind the first one, prolonging the favorable parameter space further toward the end of the week

Yeah I was noticing that. We'll have to see if that starts to become a trend. I still think we could see some west shifts for Wednesday as well, but that's still 6 days out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another thing I notice is that the latest nam looks like it’s trying to form a surface low SW of dfw in the afternoon/evening on Monday. If you guys recall from Monday, a similar development prompted the SPC to highlight portions of dfw under a local maximum of tornado potential. Since it’s still so far out relative to the nam’s range, it’s not much beyond yet another variable to consider, but if it does play out I wonder what impact it’ll have on shear profiles and the ability to break the cap in ntx

[Haris]