Texas Spring 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1021 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:47 am

Isolated freeze across East Texas with widespread mid to upper 30s this morning.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1022 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:52 am

Managed to fall to 32°F this morning
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1023 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:57 am

I was at 39 at 7:15, 57 now. Fast warm-up.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1024 Postby Brent » Sat Apr 09, 2022 10:13 am

30 at the airport but already up to 56
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1025 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 09, 2022 10:15 am

The 12z NAM has Isolated development in Central Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, could be a sneaky event
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1026 Postby Ntxw » Sat Apr 09, 2022 10:43 am

From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1027 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:18 am

12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1028 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:25 am

Weather Dude wrote:12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1029 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:40 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event
1 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1030 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:52 am

Weather Dude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:12z NAM is a cap bust.

That being said, I think that's a common bias in the NAM, although I don't usually follow it since it's generally not great. We'll see what the CAMs show tomorrow, but even they're not great until the day before sometimes even the day of.

Lots of possibilities here.

You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event


Is this the end of time? I mean all this talk has me wondering.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1031 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:17 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:You talking 12k or 3k? 12k I agree but the 3k shows initiation at 7pm Monday on the dryline. With cape as high as 4600, that cap is toast, at least south of the red river. Gonna have to wait for the 18z to see far enough into how the rest of the evening goes

12k sorry should have specified. I will add though that if that cap were to break, it would be absolutely explosive. We're probably looking at a fine line here between nothing and a major event


Is this the end of time? I mean all this talk has me wondering.

No, they were talking about the NAM model, the 12k is different than the 3k
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1032 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

https://i.imgur.com/fC4ffY0.gif


Rather disappointing but not surprising. The H5 flow looks to end up much more progressive than what models were showing last week when people were talking "historic" multi day outbreak. Rainfall totals will depend on daily convective evolution but not seeing any signs of large rain producing MCS being triggered by this setup for Texas.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1033 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:15 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:From WPC. The forecast for most outside of the eastern edges the next 7 days <0.75". The severe weather has a good ceiling but it also has a high bust potential outside of the Ozarks. It is a multi-day set up with various impulses coming through so we'll have to look at conditions daily.

https://i.imgur.com/fC4ffY0.gif


Rather disappointing but not surprising. The H5 flow looks to end up much more progressive than what models were showing last week when people were talking "historic" multi day outbreak. Rainfall totals will depend on daily convective evolution but not seeing any signs of large rain producing MCS being triggered by this setup for Texas.


These systems coming out are ejecting way too far north for most of Texas to cash in. Especially my area.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1034 Postby Ntxw » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:21 pm

I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1035 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

https://i.imgur.com/BcrkdR2.png


The Surface Pressure in Tahiti has really increased lately, only a sudden crash of the surface pressure & SOI will reverse this trend.

(And also, where's the site that features it? I would like to track it myself.)
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1036 Postby Ntxw » Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:21 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I know I'm beating a dead horse but...strong SOI rise signals below normal period of precipitation is ahead. Just as very negative crashes signals wet periods, the opposite is also true.

https://i.imgur.com/BcrkdR2.png


The Surface Pressure in Tahiti has really increased lately, only a sudden crash of the surface pressure & SOI will reverse this trend.

(And also, where's the site that features it? I would like to track it myself.)


Here you go! (Australia meteorology.) Great source for MJO data as well at the BOM meteorology page.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1037 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:12 pm

Big fire ongoing in northern Bexar county this evening. Droughts suck.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1038 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:59 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Big fire ongoing in northern Bexar county this evening. Droughts suck.

Yes they do!! I flew from Harlengen to Houston today. I SAW NO GREEN VEGETATION until we were approaching the far Western outskirts of the Houston metro area! Most of the lakes, reservoirs and even some obvious rivers and/or creeks were obviously low and/or dried out! Really brought home how bad the drought in Texas is!!
1 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1039 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:16 am

Most models continue to show very strong capping on Tuesday. However, they're also showing very favorable parameters if any storm is able to break the cap and take advantage of it. Since the SPC has a 30% area up, they seem to be pretty confident that there will be at least a few storms that can break it, despite the models not really showing it right now. I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they end up drastically changing their outlooks, I think we'll be looking at some sort of isolated supercell development along the dryline Tuesday. There may not be a whole lot of storms, but the ones that do form could be explosive, with very large hail and tornadoes likely. Still 4 days out so a lot can (and will) change.

Unfortunately from a rain perspective, this isn't looking very good. The best scenario for rain would be a linear event/MCS, but that doesn't appear to be the case here. There may be another potential system coming through around a week from now, maybe we can get some rain then.
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1040 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:21 am

Weather Dude wrote:Most models continue to show very strong capping on Tuesday. However, they're also showing very favorable parameters if any storm is able to break the cap and take advantage of it. Since the SPC has a 30% area up, they seem to be pretty confident that there will be at least a few storms that can break it, despite the models not really showing it right now. I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they end up drastically changing their outlooks, I think we'll be looking at some sort of isolated supercell development along the dryline Tuesday. There may not be a whole lot of storms, but the ones that do form could be explosive, with very large hail and tornadoes likely. Still 4 days out so a lot can (and will) change.

Unfortunately from a rain perspective, this isn't looking very good. The best scenario for rain would be a linear event/MCS, but that doesn't appear to be the case here. There may be another potential system coming through around a week from now, maybe we can get some rain then.

Yeah with that much fuel in the atmosphere it’s hard to believe nothing will pop in ok or tx on Monday or Tuesday. From what I’ve seen, the models tend to underdo coverage this far out when capping is a factor
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests