Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk stretching from Austin, TX to OKC to Central Iowa next Tuesday

[bubba hotep]

SW expansion of ENH with the 1st update. Based on hi-res trends, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets expanded again down to the Red River or even down into NE DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

SW expansion of ENH with the 1st update. Based on hi-res trends, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets expanded again down to the Red River or even down into NE DFW.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody1.png

What's your thoughts for today and tomorrow for DFW and Denton area?

Monday looks to he very conditional and maybe east and NE of the metro, imo.

Tuesday, I'm not sure what to think. I don't see this being a once and decade event but who knows.

[Ntxw]

WPC 7 day forecast now shows 0.25" or less of qpf. Some of us may see isolated storms, while most may see almost zip. That is the bust risk (Texas I-35 centric).

[HockeyTx82]

WPC 7 day forecast now shows 0.25" or less of qpf. Some of us may see isolated storms, while most may see almost zip. That is the bust risk (Texas I-35 centric).

So is this whole thing trending down from all hell breaking loose?

Dew points are up, dry line to the west......

What are we not getting and why is qpf down now?

[cheezyWXguy]

I think I see why the nam is depicting such minimal initiation across ntx tomorrow. Its expanse of surface temps greater than 80 degrees is way more confined to the dryline than the other cams that show more widespread initiation. Should it play out as the nam says, the cap would hold strong, but I doubt that

[Iceresistance]

The GFS now has Supercells consistently blowing up in Central & Northern Texas, one of them blows through DFW

[cheezyWXguy]

WPC 7 day forecast now shows 0.25" or less of qpf. Some of us may see isolated storms, while most may see almost zip. That is the bust risk (Texas I-35 centric).

So is this whole thing trending down from all hell breaking loose?

Dew points are up, dry line to the west......

What are we not getting and why is qpf down now?

I don’t think so, events shouldn’t really be defined by their potential ceilings. The ceiling is still that high imo, but I don’t think it’s ever been a particularly high chance to reach it. Still I personally am erring toward the side with more generous convective initiation. We’ve seen this many times before, where more storms fire than expected.

My main question for tomorrow is how far east of the dryline can these storms travel before any remaining capping cuts off their surface inflow. In my opinion that will determine how widespread and severe the impacts are, especially since the llj kicks in late afternoon and evening east of the dryline

[HockeyTx82]

WPC 7 day forecast now shows 0.25" or less of qpf. Some of us may see isolated storms, while most may see almost zip. That is the bust risk (Texas I-35 centric).

So is this whole thing trending down from all hell breaking loose?

Dew points are up, dry line to the west......

What are we not getting and why is qpf down now?

I don’t think so, events shouldn’t really be defined by their potential ceilings. The ceiling is still that high imo, but I don’t think it’s ever been a particularly high chance to reach it. Still I personally am erring toward the side with more generous convective initiation. We’ve seen this many times before, where more storms fire than expected.

My main question for tomorrow is how far east of the dryline can these storms travel before any remaining capping cuts off their surface inflow. In my opinion that will determine how widespread and severe the impacts are, especially since the llj kicks in late afternoon and evening east of the dryline

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is over the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

[Ntxw]

WPC 7 day forecast now shows 0.25" or less of qpf. Some of us may see isolated storms, while most may see almost zip. That is the bust risk (Texas I-35 centric).

So is this whole thing trending down from all hell breaking loose?

Dew points are up, dry line to the west......

What are we not getting and why is qpf down now?

Parameters are set up for thunderstorms to blow up and go strong. But as with anything, you can have the best parameters in the world but if there's no convection to take advantage it doesn't mean anything. Forcing is way to the north with this system as compared to others and will be dependent on a weak disturbance coming out of the Baja trying to initiate storms along a potential dry line.

My hunch is some of the dry models will be wrong, there will be some initiation along it that will quickly go severe but more limited in scope. Of course they'll grow in scale once they head east/north east as forcing improves for tomorrow. It is April, any storm has a good chance.

[Haris]

So is this whole thing trending down from all hell breaking loose?

Dew points are up, dry line to the west......

What are we not getting and why is qpf down now?

I don’t think so, events shouldn’t really be defined by their potential ceilings. The ceiling is still that high imo, but I don’t think it’s ever been a particularly high chance to reach it. Still I personally am erring toward the side with more generous convective initiation. We’ve seen this many times before, where more storms fire than expected.

My main question for tomorrow is how far east of the dryline can these storms travel before any remaining capping cuts off their surface inflow. In my opinion that will determine how widespread and severe the impacts are, especially since the llj kicks in late afternoon and evening east of the dryline

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is of the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think so, events shouldn’t really be defined by their potential ceilings. The ceiling is still that high imo, but I don’t think it’s ever been a particularly high chance to reach it. Still I personally am erring toward the side with more generous convective initiation. We’ve seen this many times before, where more storms fire than expected.

My main question for tomorrow is how far east of the dryline can these storms travel before any remaining capping cuts off their surface inflow. In my opinion that will determine how widespread and severe the impacts are, especially since the llj kicks in late afternoon and evening east of the dryline

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is of the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Agreed, a lot of the events over the last month have verified. As for Doc V, I view him a lot like Joe B in the sense that he’s usually fixated on the potential ceiling instead of what’s most likely to play out. I like reading his posts and keep tabs on the accuracy of his maps, but he’s not the SPC and shouldn’t be treated as such

[HockeyTx82]

I don’t think so, events shouldn’t really be defined by their potential ceilings. The ceiling is still that high imo, but I don’t think it’s ever been a particularly high chance to reach it. Still I personally am erring toward the side with more generous convective initiation. We’ve seen this many times before, where more storms fire than expected.

My main question for tomorrow is how far east of the dryline can these storms travel before any remaining capping cuts off their surface inflow. In my opinion that will determine how widespread and severe the impacts are, especially since the llj kicks in late afternoon and evening east of the dryline

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is of the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Oh, I'm not saying things have not elsewhere. I'm just saying with social media and other sources there seems to more perceived hype and worst case scare tactics going around. I know alot of people who moved here from California and they are so scared of storms now, or just the mention of them. I think it's just we have so many tools at our disposal and, like with winter storms, only talk about the extreme. While this board is not bad I think it's just a general rant towards social media.

As a kid growing up in NTX in the 80's and 90's. Weatherman said might have some thunderstorms, might be bad. If your regional based weather radio alarms see where it's for and act accordingly. If you hear sirens take cover. Things were simpler and I just went about my day not worrying about something I could do nothing about.

Just be prepared folks and act accordingly.

[Ntxw]

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is of the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Oh, I'm not saying things have not elsewhere. I'm just saying with social media and other sources there seems to more perceived hype and worst case scare tactics going around. I know alot of people who moved here from California and they are so scared of storms now, or just the mention of them. I think it's just we have so many tools at our disposal and, like with winter storms, only talk about the extreme. While this board is not bad I think it's just a general rant towards social media.

As a kid growing up in NTX in the 80's and 90's. Weatherman said might have some thunderstorms, might be bad. If your regional based weather radio alarms see where it's for and act accordingly. If you hear sirens take cover. Things were simpler and I just went about my day not worrying about something I could do nothing about.

Just be prepared folks and act accordingly.

A part of the issue is maps and models are more readily available and the interpretation without understanding or better communicating of what it shows adds to it. A large area of very high parameters doesn't mean everyone in that real estate will blow up with supercells, in fact a very tiny percentage actually does with most outbreaks. MCS events has larger coverage and may provide higher odds when talking about highlighted circles and ovals.

It'll be a significant outbreak for the central plains and MS valley, I know they've had enough this season so far.

[HockeyTx82]

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Oh, I'm not saying things have not elsewhere. I'm just saying with social media and other sources there seems to more perceived hype and worst case scare tactics going around. I know alot of people who moved here from California and they are so scared of storms now, or just the mention of them. I think it's just we have so many tools at our disposal and, like with winter storms, only talk about the extreme. While this board is not bad I think it's just a general rant towards social media.

As a kid growing up in NTX in the 80's and 90's. Weatherman said might have some thunderstorms, might be bad. If your regional based weather radio alarms see where it's for and act accordingly. If you hear sirens take cover. Things were simpler and I just went about my day not worrying about something I could do nothing about.

Just be prepared folks and act accordingly.

A part of the issue is maps and models are more readily available and the interpretation without understanding or better communicating of what it shows is the issue. A large area of very high parameters doesn't mean everyone in that real estate will blow up with supercells, in fact a very tiny percentage actually does with most outbreaks.

It'll be a significant outbreak for the central plains and MS valley, I know they've had enough this season so far.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Someone without an understanding see a hatched area of sig tor or hail and assumes the worst for that whole area. Someone who has a better understanding knows higher chance but not the enitre area.

I'm just salty today everyone. Apologies if I set a tone. I'll stop now.

[Iceresistance]

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Oh, I'm not saying things have not elsewhere. I'm just saying with social media and other sources there seems to more perceived hype and worst case scare tactics going around. I know alot of people who moved here from California and they are so scared of storms now, or just the mention of them. I think it's just we have so many tools at our disposal and, like with winter storms, only talk about the extreme. While this board is not bad I think it's just a general rant towards social media.

As a kid growing up in NTX in the 80's and 90's. Weatherman said might have some thunderstorms, might be bad. If your regional based weather radio alarms see where it's for and act accordingly. If you hear sirens take cover. Things were simpler and I just went about my day not worrying about something I could do nothing about.

Just be prepared folks and act accordingly.

A part of the issue is maps and models are more readily available and the interpretation without understanding or better communicating of what it shows adds to it. A large area of very high parameters doesn't mean everyone in that real estate will blow up with supercells, in fact a very tiny percentage actually does with most outbreaks. MCS events has larger coverage and may provide higher odds when talking about highlighted circles and ovals.

It'll be a significant outbreak for the central plains and MS valley, I know they've had enough this season so far.

I know a relative in Phenix City, AL that has been dealing with a LOT of storms, she does have a storm shelter if things get nasty.

We're planning to visit her for the first time ever in May.

[Ntxw]

There's a small storm heading for DFW airport, maybe it'll overperform and alone does the 0.25" .

[HockeyTx82]

Storms firing in Ft Worth and south....

Was that expected this early in the day?

[cheezyWXguy]

My thing is we keep seeing that on mets Twitter post popping up on this site with lots of high end potential days out. We then get close to the day and nothing posts and models show that far out seem to play out. I get it, we are here to talk about weather and learn but this constant high end high octane type events wear some people out. Sure, will we get some really bad weather at some point this bring, yes and we have. Was it historic, no, unless you were directly impacted but aside from some very unfortunate deaths is it mostly damage to buildings.

I guess what I am saying is, and others who have been here a while, is of the last two or so years we seem to have lots of high end events being talked up days out and then we back down the day of or before. Maybe I'm just getting tired and old, who knows.

I don’t know if you’re referring to Texas alone or in general but regardless, the tornado outbreak in central Texas verified 200%. The outbreak over Mississippi last week verified completely with 60+ tornadoes. I don’t really see a pattern of overhyping. The parameters the sky high. It’s all or nothing, but that all has the potential to be significant if it happens. Better safe than sorry

Oh, I'm not saying things have not elsewhere. I'm just saying with social media and other sources there seems to more perceived hype and worst case scare tactics going around. I know alot of people who moved here from California and they are so scared of storms now, or just the mention of them. I think it's just we have so many tools at our disposal and, like with winter storms, only talk about the extreme. While this board is not bad I think it's just a general rant towards social media.

As a kid growing up in NTX in the 80's and 90's. Weatherman said might have some thunderstorms, might be bad. If your regional based weather radio alarms see where it's for and act accordingly. If you hear sirens take cover. Things were simpler and I just went about my day not worrying about something I could do nothing about.

Just be prepared folks and act accordingly.

Haha yeah, I have a few friends who are new to the area as well, and a few friends who never really paid attention to weather until I started talking their ears off about it.

While I do agree there’s a decent amount of hype on social media, a lot of the people I follow put out some valid information and I think there’s some nuance in figuring out who’s posting information and their biases, that’s often lost on the general public when they get exposed to it. If all you pay attention to is chasers, they’re likely going to pick out valid aspects that depict the higher end scenario because they’re hyped to go chasing now that winter is over. Some private Mets, even respected ones, will probably hype for more weather weenie viewership. I think equal platforming on social media just comes with the price of higher difficulty of contextualization. As bad as the overhype can be at times, I feel fortunate that the weather community is so much lower in outright misinformation than a lot of other circles out there.

Also of note, the 12z HRRR managed to initiate storms both today and tomorrow in ntx

[HockeyTx82]

There's a small storm heading for DFW airport, maybe it'll overperform and alone does the 0.25" .

Can we move on to fall if so?