2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AlphaToOmega]

Ok, so I figured that this thought experiment may help a bit:

I would most definitely not consider myself as an expert (an enthusiast is a better term). However, I would like to pose this question as quite frankly, I am not personally 100% sure about what the answer may be and would like to get more insight from someone who has more experience or intel. I have seen comparisons with this season and 2000, 2012, and 2021 being thrown around on social media and Storm2k for example. It is not shocking to see 2000 as that was the other active era third year La Nina, for example. 2012 was also a year that followed two La Nina years, and (I think?) based on current sst anomaly behavior 2021 is being used as a comparison as well. However, what are some factors that make 2022 (or likely will make 2022) different from each of those 3 years? No 2 seasons are mirror images, and I'd have to imagine that history can only go so far as to predict a new season's future behavior?

2000 had a -AMM for ASO, but 2022 is expected to have a +AMM for ASO. 2012 had a +ENSO for ASO, but 2022 is expected to have a -ENSO for ASO. For 2021, it is possible for 2022 to end up as a mirror image of 2021 (and similar to 2007 frankly, given that 2021 and 2007 had nearly identical SSTA patterns) if the Atlantic Nino is positive. However, if the Atlantic Nino is negative, 2022 will not be like 2021 and will instead probably be more like 1998/2001/2005/2010/2011/2020. For hurricane season activity in the North Atlantic, the most important factor is the pattern during ASO.

Edit: If you want to know my analogs for 2022, they are:

1. +AtlNino: 1999, 2007, 2008, and 2021
2. -AtlNino: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513197808282656772




 https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513198603749269510

[mixedDanilo.E]

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513197808282656772

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513198603749269510

Damn the MDR really gonna warm up soon. Gotta see how long tho.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513197808282656772

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513198603749269510

Honestly, if I am not mistaken, that looks to be a very strong westery? In other words, it'll likely indeed warm up the MDR if it verifies?

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513197808282656772

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513198603749269510

Honestly, if I am not mistaken, that looks to be a very strong westery? In other words, it'll likely indeed warm up the MDR if it verifies?

You answered your question.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513197808282656772

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1513198603749269510

Honestly, if I am not mistaken, that looks to be a very strong westery? In other words, it'll likely indeed warm up the MDR if it verifies?

Those pinks shadings (strong westerly anomalies) are in the WPAC. To the far right of the graphic is the Atlantic MDR, which is forecast to have slower than normal trades (weak-moderate westerly anomalies) and that can allow SST's to rise.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.

[Category5Kaiju]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Hmm. Interesting indeed. I believe somebody pointed out earlier in this thread how there seems to be a decent correlation between MDR sst anomalies in like June and whether or not the season ends up being hyperactive in ACE. 2020 was alarmingly warm throughout the spring and summer, so honestly I was not surprised that that ended the way it did. 2017 also seemed to have a decently and anomalously warm MDR by the time June rolled around, and that season ended up being the +220 ACE nightmare we remember it as. 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 did not feature such temperature anomalies by June, and they were above average but not hyperactive. So while the sample size is quite limited, if this pattern were to stand (particularly starting in 2016 when this wretched active, destructive streak began), if by June this year, we see a decently warm MDR....we may need to keep a bigger eye open.

[zzh]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Also note the persistent easterly over the Caribbean.

[NotSparta]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Interesting that it keeps the current pattern shift in place for a while. Not sure it'd get things to 2017/2020 levels or even close but it would probably set 2022 a little apart from the 2018/2019/2021 pack

[Category5Kaiju]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Also note the persistent easterly over the Caribbean.

What exactly does that persistent easterly over the Caribbean mean in the grand scheme of things though?

[Kingarabian]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Also note the persistent easterly over the Caribbean.

The Caribbean and GOM will always have enough OHC regardless. If those trades were situated east of the islands then it'll knock warm anomalies off.

[NotSparta]

The longevity of this relaxed trade wind episode in the MDR will be crucial in determining where we'll stand by the beginning of the season. During this current era of +NAO/-AMO winters this is where seasons like 2017 began to separate themselves from the pack when compared to the rest (save for 2020); if MDR SSTs can trend upwards before the usual WAM-induced warm up then that's when we'll know if the potential is higher for a more active season ACE-wise due to less issues in the way of instability. The most recent long-range EPS run is currently depicting persistent weak trades all throughout its run (late May), which is definitely intriguing, although of course forecast accuracy diminishes the further out you go. But I would imagine we would see tropical Atlantic SSTs rebound quite a bit should this verify.
https://i.ibb.co/M1vf5q1/14-km-EPS-Weekly-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Zonal-Wind-Anomaly-Ens-Mean-4.gif

Also note the persistent easterly over the Caribbean.

The Caribbean and GOM will always have enough OHC regardless. If those trades were situated east of the islands then it'll knock warm anomalies off.

Yeah I think the strong trades there have less effects on the SSTs anyway. Bigger effect of the fast trades there is it just hurts the chance for TCs in the area down the line

[cycloneye]

UKMET seasonal forecast has cool MDR but very warm subtropics. IMO, the key for MDR to warm will be how will NAO be.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501438915354634

[DorkyMcDorkface]

UKMET seasonal forecast has cool MDR but very warm subtropics. IMO, the key for MDR to warm will be how will NAO be.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501438915354634

Ensemble forecast shows this as well with only an avg/slightly above avg Tropical Atlantic. Relative to what the graphic shared is showing in the subtropics this likely would be at least somewhat problematic - it appears the only thing which could dampen the season this year is the Atlantic itself if it fails to warm by any appreciable amount (other factors such as the Pacific appear favorable) which is why it's worth watching how things evolve over the next month or so regarding trades.

[Category5Kaiju]

So it's something I have sort of thought about recently, but aside from seasons like 2010 and 2020 that were expected to be hyperactive and ended up verifying, weren't many people very much caught off guard when seasons like 2004, 2005, and 2017 happened (in other words, the hyperactive seasons that were extremely destructive and also generated 220+ ACE)? My point here is that for reasons that I cannot fully explain myself, it seems to be as if there is some sort of "sneaky element" that may play a role in setting up a season that is extremely active ACE-wise and destructive as well (as characteristic of these so-called "elite" hyperactive seasons).

It is still unclear as to what 2022 has up its sleeve, but I definitely would say that just because the MDR is not warm right now does not mean it cannot warm up to levels that may raise eyebrows by May or so. We shall see.

[AnnularCane]

I seem to recall the MDR cooling at some point during the spring last year, and I think the year before too. That did not last.

[cycloneye]

MDR keeps getting cold but eventually will begin to warm as soon the trades relax a bit but the bigger question is if a sustained -NAO can be prevalent for the next 2-3 months to warm the waters.

[AlphaToOmega]

What matters for hurricane season is the pattern for ASO. The AMM will be positive because we know the impacts that the WAM will have over the MDR, so what matters from here is the Atlantic Nino. If the Gulf of Guinea is cooler than the MDR, the ITCZ will be farther to the north, enhancing Caribbean activity. If the Gulf of Guinea is warmer than the MDR, the ITCZ will be farther to the south, suppressing Caribbean activity; it is still impossible to say how the Atlantic Nino will be by ASO. Thus, even if the MDR becomes warmer-than-average during April, that does not mean 2022 will be hyperactive; and even if the MDR stays near-average during April, that does not mean 2022 will not be hyperactive.

[zzh]

The lows in the Caribbean and subtropical east Atlantic will reduce trades in the MDR. We will see how long those lows persist and how much the MDR can warm.