Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

There's a small storm heading for DFW airport, maybe it'll overperform and alone does the 0.25" .

Sounds like that the storm wants to make sure the DFW will get rain before the DFW Dry Slot activates.

EDIT: NWS Radar said that parts of Fort Worth already got .5 inch of rain, so maybe .5 inch at the airport?

[Edwards Limestone]

It wasn't much, but SA and the southern Edwards Plateau got some much needed rain late last night.
Nice after missing out on the last 2-3 events.


https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall1day.png

[Ntxw]

There's a small storm heading for DFW airport, maybe it'll overperform and alone does the 0.25" .

Sounds like that the storm wants to make sure the DFW will get rain before the DFW Dry Slot activates.

EDIT: NWS Radar said that parts of Fort Worth already got .5 inch of rain, so maybe .5 inch at the airport?

Only a trace. It faded as it crossed at least the northern end.

[Iceresistance]

There's a small storm heading for DFW airport, maybe it'll overperform and alone does the 0.25" .

Sounds like that the storm wants to make sure the DFW will get rain before the DFW Dry Slot activates.

EDIT: NWS Radar said that parts of Fort Worth already got .5 inch of rain, so maybe .5 inch at the airport?

Only a trace. It faded as it crossed at least the northern end.

Curses! The DFW Dry Slot strikes again! This time, it's only at DFW Airport!

[bubba hotep]

Decent little storm moved through hear earlier with brief heavy rain and some pea sized hail.

Sometimes areas that pick up early storms see a repeat later in the day with these setups. The 12z models agree that convection will try to fire this afternoon along the dryline in N. TX but it looks like most have these attempts fail and the cap hold strong.

[rwfromkansas]

Do early storms like that help provide a hole in the cap so to speak?

That storm was quite strong for a surprise storm when it passed maybe 2 miles south of me.

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area removed except for the part further north in IA that will probably get upgraded to moderate tomorrow IMO. Partial cap bust likely for KS/OK/TX with a few storms forming but not many. Still some large hail and tornado potential, but it's probably going to join the ever growing list of failed/underwhelming attempts we've seen since 2013. I don't root for outbreaks but we desperately need rain and the only we'll get some tomorrow is if anything can break the cap.

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

[cheezyWXguy]

10 hatched tornado area removed except for the part further north in IA that will probably get upgraded to moderate tomorrow IMO. Partial cap bust likely for KS/OK/TX with a few storms forming but not many. Still some large hail and tornado potential, but it's probably going to join the ever growing list of failed/underwhelming attempts we've seen since 2013. I don't root for outbreaks but we desperately need rain and the only we'll get some tomorrow is if anything can break the cap.

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

You could be right but I think it’s still a bit up in the air, even for today. As far as ntx goes, current temps are running about 3 degrees above what the HRRR is depicting for 1pm. There’s also the chance that the storms earlier left any kind of localized surface boundary or perturbation. Both of these factors probably add support to convective initiation this afternoon, but the question is whether it’s enough to set something off. I’m not convinced either way. However, for tomorrow similar factors should be taken into consideration, every degree the risk area warms above forecast would increase the chances of a cap break.

[HockeyTx82]

10 hatched tornado area removed except for the part further north in IA that will probably get upgraded to moderate tomorrow IMO. Partial cap bust likely for KS/OK/TX with a few storms forming but not many. Still some large hail and tornado potential, but it's probably going to join the ever growing list of failed/underwhelming attempts we've seen since 2013. I don't root for outbreaks but we desperately need rain and the only we'll get some tomorrow is if anything can break the cap.

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

You could be right but I think it’s still a bit up in the air, even for today. As far as ntx goes, current temps are running about 3 degrees above what the HRRR is depicting for 1pm. There’s also the chance that the storms earlier left any kind of localized surface boundary or perturbation. Both of these factors probably add support to convective initiation this afternoon, but the question is whether it’s enough to set something off. I’m not convinced either way. However, for tomorrow similar factors should be taken into consideration, every degree the risk area warms above forecast would increase the chances of a cap break.

What temp do we need to bust the cap?

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area removed except for the part further north in IA that will probably get upgraded to moderate tomorrow IMO. Partial cap bust likely for KS/OK/TX with a few storms forming but not many. Still some large hail and tornado potential, but it's probably going to join the ever growing list of failed/underwhelming attempts we've seen since 2013. I don't root for outbreaks but we desperately need rain and the only we'll get some tomorrow is if anything can break the cap.

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

You could be right but I think it’s still a bit up in the air, even for today. As far as ntx goes, current temps are running about 3 degrees above what the HRRR is depicting for 1pm. There’s also the chance that the storms earlier left any kind of localized surface boundary or perturbation. Both of these factors probably add support to convective initiation this afternoon, but the question is whether it’s enough to set something off. I’m not convinced either way. However, for tomorrow similar factors should be taken into consideration, every degree the risk area warms above forecast would increase the chances of a cap break.

Yeah we'll see. A lot of times the complete opposite of what I say happens so if KS/OK/TX goes off and IA cap busts tomorrow don't come hunt me down lol

[cheezyWXguy]

10 hatched tornado area removed except for the part further north in IA that will probably get upgraded to moderate tomorrow IMO. Partial cap bust likely for KS/OK/TX with a few storms forming but not many. Still some large hail and tornado potential, but it's probably going to join the ever growing list of failed/underwhelming attempts we've seen since 2013. I don't root for outbreaks but we desperately need rain and the only we'll get some tomorrow is if anything can break the cap.

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

You could be right but I think it’s still a bit up in the air, even for today. As far as ntx goes, current temps are running about 3 degrees above what the HRRR is depicting for 1pm. There’s also the chance that the storms earlier left any kind of localized surface boundary or perturbation. Both of these factors probably add support to convective initiation this afternoon, but the question is whether it’s enough to set something off. I’m not convinced either way. However, for tomorrow similar factors should be taken into consideration, every degree the risk area warms above forecast would increase the chances of a cap break.

What temp do we need to bust the cap?

Not totally sure but it looks like around 90. Capping is virtually gone over the metro from 3-6pm on the hrrr when it forecasts temps around that. Still, no initiation from it though. It must be due to lack of forcing, it seems like a bird fart could set off a storm in these kinds of conditions.

[Iceresistance]

You could be right but I think it’s still a bit up in the air, even for today. As far as ntx goes, current temps are running about 3 degrees above what the HRRR is depicting for 1pm. There’s also the chance that the storms earlier left any kind of localized surface boundary or perturbation. Both of these factors probably add support to convective initiation this afternoon, but the question is whether it’s enough to set something off. I’m not convinced either way. However, for tomorrow similar factors should be taken into consideration, every degree the risk area warms above forecast would increase the chances of a cap break.

What temp do we need to bust the cap?

Not totally sure but it looks like around 90. Capping is virtually gone over the metro from 3-6pm on the hrrr when it forecasts temps around that. Still, no initiation from it though. It must be due to lack of forcing, it seems like a bird fart could set off a storm in these kinds of conditions.

More like a loaded cannon that is absolutely ready to fire, but the Spark is missing, even thought it does not take much spark for the Supercells to literally explode on radar.

[Iceresistance]

We're probably going to set some sort of record for number of extreme fire risk days this year, at least that's what it feels like so far.

I've looked at the list of Extreme Fire Risk Days, & 2006 had 20 of them, with the first one (Ironically) on New Years day in Oklahoma & Texas

[cheezyWXguy]

18z 3k NAM shows initiation today in ntx around 6pm

[Iceresistance]

18z 3k NAM shows initiation today in ntx around 6pm
[url]=https://ibb.co/2PwZYrk[/url]
[url]=https://ibb.co/yyL3qny[/url]

Maybe the early morning storms over DFW messed up the capping potential?

[Iceresistance]

The NWS-Springfield Radar is dead, Lightning struck it & blew up some parts, they're trying to get replacement parts back in as fast as possible, but the restoration time is unknown

[cheezyWXguy]

18z 3k NAM shows initiation today in ntx around 6pm
[url]=https://ibb.co/2PwZYrk[/url]
[url]=https://ibb.co/yyL3qny[/url]

Maybe the early morning storms over DFW messed up the capping potential?

Maybe but it doesn’t even seem like capping is the issue. Nam and hrrr have been showing next to no capping for a few runs now, maybe they were overestimating how much forcing it would take to fire these off. Still, I guess we won’t know until something actually happens

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado watch is up with 70/40 probs. Dangerous day ahead

[Haris]

18z 3k NAM shows initiation today in ntx around 6pm
[url]=https://ibb.co/2PwZYrk[/url]
[url]=https://ibb.co/yyL3qny[/url]

Maybe the early morning storms over DFW messed up the capping potential?

Those were too small for impact. And more importantly the models never had anything before either

[HockeyTx82]

Seeing some small returns west of Ponder from UNT.

Maybe something trying to get going?

The clouds look very elevated.... who knows