Texas Spring 2022

[rwfromkansas]

Since it was mentioned, I checked the FV3. Wow. Has a massive supercell right over DFW and appears to even have a hook or notch.

[Iceresistance]

Since it was mentioned, I checked the FV3. Wow. Has a massive supercell right over DFW and appears to even have a hook or notch.

That would be the worst case Scenario, Little Rock barely dodged a bullet last night.

[rwfromkansas]

Now the HRRR is much more subdued. Even has some collapsing west of DFW. But, I think that's not likely.

[Haris]

Now the HRRR is much more subdued. Even has some collapsing west of DFW. But, I think that's not likely.

Latest run has them survive into your area now,

also N Austin looks to get slammed but hard to locate these hours out exactly.

[cheezyWXguy]

Temperatures have jumped over the last hour across the metro. Most of Dallas and Tarrant counties are at 80 or above

[Iceresistance]

Temperatures have jumped over the last hour across the metro. Most of Dallas and Tarrant counties are at 80 or above

Same at my house, except the wind is CRAZY! Gusting close to 35 many times.

[Iceresistance]

18z Soundings are showing that the Cap is gone in DFW & is weak at OUN

[Haris]

18z Soundings are showing that the Cap is gone in DFW & is weak at OUN

Yeah 18z FWD now had cap eroded almost

[Iceresistance]

NWS Radar is showing 2 couplets from the Supercells, it's splitting.

[bubba hotep]

18z Soundings are showing that the Cap is gone in DFW & is weak at OUN

Yeah 18z FWD now had cap eroded almost

Yea, there is still some cap in place. However, it looks like the 18z HRRR was initialized with more cap in place and totally missing the storms off to the SW of DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

NWS Radar is showing 2 couplets from the Supercells, it's splitting.

OMG!!!!! That's like crossing the streams.

[Iceresistance]

NWS Radar is showing 2 couplets from the Supercells, it's splitting.

OMG!!!!! That's like crossing the streams.

The storm(s) are now severe, with Quarter Sized hail & 60 mph wind gusts.
And it looks like that they are merging instead.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Here’s our lifting mechanism, Dry Line Magic! First storm in the EWX area has developed SE of Del Rio near Jimenez. Here we go!

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1513960575382036493




Here we go

[dhweather]

18Z sounding from KFWD - the cap has eroded quite a bit, CAPE over 3K, steep lapse rates. Not a lot of shear though.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bFzvNS9/20220412-1800-KFWD.png [/url]

18Z sounding from KFWD - the cap has eroded quite a bit, CAPE over 3K, steep lapse rates. Not a lot of shear though.

I did compare it to the RAP model on the Mesoscale analysis, the Shear is stronger than expected.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

NWS Austin/San Antonio may issue a Tornado Watch for counties along the I-35 Corridor and points east in about an hour.. I wish I knew how to post screenshots

[EnnisTx]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0458.gif



Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 122007Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase into the
evening hours across parts of central Texas.

DISCUSSION...One supercell and several additional cells have
developed along and near the dryline in west-central Texas this
afternoon. Storms organization has been slow, likely due to the
convoluted wind profile in the wake of the passing upper-level
trough. However, deep layer flow is expected to improve into this
evening with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear forecast across the
warm sector by 23Z. Additionally, current storm activity is in a
well-mixed airmass with 30+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads and
veered surface flow. As these storms move east, they will encounter
a less mixed airmass with backed surface flow and dewpoints in the
upper 60s. These south-southeasterly surface winds combined with
strengthening lower tropospheric flow, will likely result in a
low-level wind profile favorable for tornadoes. Therefore, a tornado
watch will likely be needed east of watch 110 late this afternoon
into the early evening hours.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/12/2022

[Edwards Limestone]

[Iceresistance]

SW Oklahoma may reach 100, Altus is 96 right now