Texas Spring 2022

[Brent]

Amazing how a city an hour north of me has seen 5 inches of rain, 5” hail and tornadoes and we’ve barely had a cloud in the sky.

Not that I’m complaining

Didn't even get a storm to form up here in Oklahoma which originally had today's hype. Funny how things work sometimes

And yeah I'm sure they would have been big ones had that developed so it's not the worst case scenario for sure

[captainbarbossa19]

Starting to look a bit more encouraging:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022041218/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

I hope this verifies. I had few light showers today, but barely any measurable amount. If the rain starts though, we could be looking at a similar situation to last year where most of the spring rain came in mid-April to late May.

[cstrunk]

A line of storms is developing/moving through the Dallas area this morning. The SPC is considering a tornado watch for the Ark-la-tex region.

[bubba hotep]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

[Ntxw]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Looks like thin band of 1-2" in southeastern Dallas, another thin band 2-3" in Rockwall county.

[Ntxw]

DFW officially received 0.25" of rainfall yesterday . That's 1.58" for April so far, for now, is running a little ahead of normal.

[cstrunk]

70/40 probs on the new tornado watch for the Arklatex region.

[Ntxw]

70/40 probs on the new tornado watch for the Arklatex region.

It's gonna be a big tornado day from the Ark-LA to MS/TN valleys. Dixie alley living up to the name of late.

[bubba hotep]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Storms are now firing along the cold front after it pushed past the airport lol

The tale of two DFWs continues with rainfall east of the airport running 2 to 3 times higher than areas west of the airport for April.

[gpsnowman]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Storms are now firing along the cold front after it pushed past the airport lol

The tale of two DFWs continues with rainfall east of the airport running 2 to 3 times higher than areas west of the airport for April.

Driving around Irving and the airport you can see how amazingly high the storm clouds east of here are. And not a cloud in the sky from DFW west. Unreal is reality now.

[Iceresistance]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Storms are now firing along the cold front after it pushed past the airport lol

The tale of two DFWs continues with rainfall east of the airport running 2 to 3 times higher than areas west of the airport for April.

Driving around Irving and the airport you can see how amazingly high the storm clouds east of here are. And not a cloud in the sky from DFW west. Unreal is reality now.

And it's only Mid-April, I have a really bad feeling for May . . .

[Brent]

Freeze warning here tonight

[Haris]

These ensembles are looking mighty fine for week 2

[utpmg]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1514348797303963652

[HockeyTx82]

These ensembles are looking mighty fine for week 2

Context?

[Haris]

These ensembles are looking mighty fine for week 2

Context?

Lotta rain

[Ntxw]

SOI continues to remain very high. I make note because it is very unusual this time of year for it to be sustained like this, even in the best La Ninas it isn't sustained to this magnitude. Mid to late spring ENSO seasonable variability favors SOI falls even during -ENSO events. For this reason it is coupled with our usual 'wet' season. The years that stay high in the spring are not many and they are ugly summer wise such as 1999, 2000, and 2011.

Hoping for a crash soon.

Monthly SOI source

[Cpv17]

These ensembles are looking mighty fine for week 2

Context?

Lotta rain

Are you referring to the EPS? Because the GEFS has actually taken a couple steps back in the wrong direction today.

[Haris]

Context?

Lotta rain

Are you referring to the EPS? Because the GEFS has actually taken a couple steps back in the wrong direction today.

Yes and GEPS

[Iceresistance]

SOI continues to remain very high. I make note because it is very unusual this time of year for it to be sustained like this, even in the best La Ninas it isn't sustained to this magnitude. Mid to late spring ENSO seasonable variability favors SOI falls even during -ENSO events. For this reason it is coupled with our usual 'wet' season. The years that stay high in the spring are not many and they are ugly summer wise such as 1999, 2000, and 2011.

Hoping for a crash soon.

Monthly SOI source

The long range Ensembles have been thinking that it will crash in the next 5 days based on the high Rainfall anomalies for the Southern Plains starting next week, although I could be wrong for that manner.