2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[aspen]

Already a wave train? Looks like the once again active WAM will be a key factor on MDR activity.

https://i.imgur.com/KjuxtPB.png

Looking like another strong WAM year. Really not a surprise. Just continues the streaks and some of the early conditions suggest it won't be too different from the past few years

Now the question is whether or not the WAM becomes so strong that it becomes a detriment, yielding very large waves that take days to consolidate like in 2020. I’m inclined to believe it’ll be more like 2020 this season due to the lack of an Atlantic Nino, but as has been pointed out earlier on this thread, we only have a very small sample size on Atl Nina/Niño impacts on the ITCZ.

[Shell Mound]

Afaik the "suppressive" effects of the Atlantic Nino in 2021 were only applicable to the late season, as by October the ITCZ was too low in latitude to allow waves to develop in the Caribbean. Earlier in the season, it arguably enhanced MDR activity due to low-latitude westerlies generating extra vorticity; a "kick" that may have helped Larry and Sam get going.

Don't forget about Elsa, an extremely anomalous event that likely would not have occurred if there was no Atlantic Niño. A rare Atlantic westerly wind burst birthed by the unusually warm Equatorial Atlantic SSTs helped it get going along with keeping it at a southerly latitude over warmer SSTs and shielding it from early season Saharan air plumes. Like you said, its presence can both be a blessing and a curse when it comes to TC activity, it just depends on the time of year really.

Atlantic Niños actually tend to result in cooler SSTs (=weaker instability) over the MDR (10°–20°N, 20°–60°W). Do you have any evidence that the enhanced low-level convergence associated with the Niño contributed to the formations of Elsa, Larry, and/or Sam?

[NotSparta]

Afaik the "suppressive" effects of the Atlantic Nino in 2021 were only applicable to the late season, as by October the ITCZ was too low in latitude to allow waves to develop in the Caribbean. Earlier in the season, it arguably enhanced MDR activity due to low-latitude westerlies generating extra vorticity; a "kick" that may have helped Larry and Sam get going.

Don't forget about Elsa, an extremely anomalous event that likely would not have occurred if there was no Atlantic Niño. A rare Atlantic westerly wind burst birthed by the unusually warm Equatorial Atlantic SSTs helped it get going along with keeping it at a southerly latitude over warmer SSTs and shielding it from early season Saharan air plumes. Like you said, its presence can both be a blessing and a curse when it comes to TC activity, it just depends on the time of year really.

https://i.ibb.co/ngdhrsJ/ENSOblog-Atlantic-Nino-SST-wind-precip-anomalies-620-0.jpg

Atlantic Niños actually tend to result in cooler SSTs (=weaker instability) over the MDR (10°–20°N, 20°–60°W). Do you have any evidence that the enhanced low-level convergence associated with the Niño contributed to the formations of Elsa, Larry, and/or Sam?

Definitely Elsa. I remember a trade wind reversal at the equator in the Atlantic that gave extra vorticity to low lying waves and helped Elsa develop

[zzh]

Trades will be very relaxed in the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting comparisons of the sstas in MDR of those years to 2022.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1514692686183378950

[Category5Kaiju]

Very interesting comparisons of the sstas in MDR of those years to 2022.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1514692686183378950

Also I think it's quite interesting to see how two of those years with insane MDR sst anomalies ended up with west-based activity instead (2005 and 2020) while 2010, while featuring many strong MDR-tracking systems, saw relatively light impacts as such storms recurved (and mid level dry air for some reason seemed to be a issue during that year). It's hyperactive years like 1996, 1999, 2004, and 2017 that intrigue me, as those years featured powerful MDR systems and were also damaging (2004 and 2017 being extremely damaging) but featured a rather late MDR warmup.

[aspen]

Very interesting comparisons of the sstas in MDR of those years to 2022.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1514692686183378950

As they mentioned, the overall SSTA setup is very similar to 2018-19, with a near-average to cool MDR and a warmer-than-average NW Atlantic near Bermuda. While MDR SSTAs were only a tiny bit warmer at this time last year, the subtropical warm pool was instead in the NE Atlantic; 2017 also had this warm pool, although it wasn’t as pronounced. I think this NE Atl warmth has been linked to MDR activity somewhere on this forum before, but even without it, 2018 and 2019 still produced Florence, Dorian, and Lorenzo.

A breakdown of all the post-2016 years in that Tweet:
—2017: NE Atl warm pool, slightly warmer-than-average MDR, cool neutral ENSO —> hyperactive Cape Verde year. Nothing struggled in the MDR during peak season and blew several ACE records out of the water
—2018: NW Atl warm pool, very cool MDR, warm-neutral ENSO —> moderate MDR activity and overall moderately active year. Florence peaked outside the MDR, Helene was nearly a major near Cape Verde, while the other MDR systems struggled and the subtropics were active
—2019: NW Atl warm pool, slightly below-average MDR, warm-neutral ENSO —> mixed MDR and moderately active overall season. Once again, the big storms that formed in the MDR peaked outside of it, and the subtropics were active but not as much as 2018
—2020: Slightly warmer NE Atl, very warm MDR and ridiculously warm Gulf, La Niña —> hyperactive west-based season. Third year of the biggest MDR storms peaking outside of the region, mainly due to giant waves and a high ITCZ, and the Caribbean/Gulf was bonkers
—2021: Very warm NE Atl, near-average MDR, La Niña —> near-hyperactive season with significant Gulf and MDR activity, including two 30+ ACE Cape Verde storms
—2022: Very warm NW Atl, below-average MDR, La Niña —> ????

Just going by the SSTA configuration and persistence of a La Niña, it’s possible 2022 could be like a juiced-up version of 2018/19. It wouldn’t be as west-based as 2020, but we wouldn’t get multiple MDR majors like 2017 or 2021. Instead, anything that forms in the MDR could struggle until they get further west or into the warm subtropics (Ex: Florence, Dorian, Laura, Paulette). If the NE Atl warm pool is indeed a feature that helps juice up MDR activity, than a 2018/19 season continues to look likely.

Also, I’ve excluded Michael because I believe its RI was due in part to abnormal late-season warming of the northern Gulf. It was something that could not be expected going by pre-season SSTAs alone.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/Nichola76551479/status/1515049201566158856




So while yes, having a warm MDR pre-season (like in the April/May range) is characteristic of many hyperactive seasons, it by no means is foolproof, and this is something that we should keep in mind for this season. Andrew Moore does a pretty good job of showing what years like 1995 or 2004 looked like here (1995 actually sort of surprised me given it was a pretty robust MDR year, featuring storms like Luis and Felix).

Also, there are two good examples imho of historical hyperactive years that lacked major MDR activity but that (I feel) are overshadowed by the 2005/2020 examples: 1932 and 1933. This is 1932:



This is 1933:


As you can see, it is totally possible to have a high ACE storm that accrues ACE just by being powerful and slow while lingering in the western or subtropical Atlantic. I could also give the example of the 1935 Labor Day storm, as that was a slow-moving but very powerful hurricane that did not originate in the MDR. In other words, who knows if this season is indeed a juiced-up subtropical year that ends up being hyperactive as many long-lived, powerful storms occur in the subtropics? As in, "multiple Florences?" It is definitely imho an idea that should be considered, as not all hyperactive seasons must have strong MDR activity/storms.

[Yellow Evan]

There were no satellites in 1932/33. There very easily could have been MDR activity then.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

There were no satellites in 1932/33. There very easily could have been MDR activity then.

Was about to mention this, we don't know how many storms were missed out in the open Atlantic before the advent of satellite imagery.

[Shell Mound]

Don't forget about Elsa, an extremely anomalous event that likely would not have occurred if there was no Atlantic Niño. A rare Atlantic westerly wind burst birthed by the unusually warm Equatorial Atlantic SSTs helped it get going along with keeping it at a southerly latitude over warmer SSTs and shielding it from early season Saharan air plumes. Like you said, its presence can both be a blessing and a curse when it comes to TC activity, it just depends on the time of year really.

https://i.ibb.co/ngdhrsJ/ENSOblog-Atlantic-Nino-SST-wind-precip-anomalies-620-0.jpg

Atlantic Niños actually tend to result in cooler SSTs (=weaker instability) over the MDR (10°–20°N, 20°–60°W). Do you have any evidence that the enhanced low-level convergence associated with the Niño contributed to the formations of Elsa, Larry, and/or Sam?

Definitely Elsa. I remember a trade wind reversal at the equator in the Atlantic that gave extra vorticity to low lying waves and helped Elsa develop

That’s true, but did the Atlantic Niño play a role? Given that Atlantic Niños tend to cool the MDR, I am somewhat skeptical of the notion that they aid TCG.

[Shell Mound]

Very interesting comparisons of the sstas in MDR of those years to 2022.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1514692686183378950

—2017: NE Atl warm pool, slightly warmer-than-average MDR, cool neutral ENSO —> hyperactive Cape Verde year. Nothing struggled in the MDR during peak season and blew several ACE records out of the water
—2018: NW Atl warm pool, very cool MDR, warm-neutral ENSO —> moderate MDR activity and overall moderately active year. Florence peaked outside the MDR, Helene was nearly a major near Cape Verde, while the other MDR systems struggled and the subtropics were active
—2019: NW Atl warm pool, slightly below-average MDR, warm-neutral ENSO —> mixed MDR and moderately active overall season. Once again, the big storms that formed in the MDR peaked outside of it, and the subtropics were active but not as much as 2018
—2020: Slightly warmer NE Atl, very warm MDR and ridiculously warm Gulf, La Niña —> hyperactive west-based season. Third year of the biggest MDR storms peaking outside of the region, mainly due to giant waves and a high ITCZ, and the Caribbean/Gulf was bonkers
—2021: Very warm NE Atl, near-average MDR, La Niña —> near-hyperactive season with significant Gulf and MDR activity, including two 30+ ACE Cape Verde storms
—2022: Very warm NW Atl, below-average MDR, La Niña —> ????

Some corrections/additions:

• 2017’s Irma and Jose attained their respective peaks of 155 and 135 kt while still situated in the MDR (Maria peaked just to W)
• 2018’s Beryl became a rare hurricane in the MDR on 6 July, while Helene in the same season peaked at 95 kt in the MDR as well
• 2019’s Lorenzo attained its first peak of 125 kt while still in the MDR, while Jerry in the same season peaked at 90 kt in the MDR
• 2020’s Teddy was the only storm of the season to become a major hurricane (MSW in BT: 115 kt) while still situated in the MDR
• 2021’s Sam and Larry attained their respective peaks of 135 and 110 kt while still situated in the MDR (Elsa peaked just to the W)

2022 will likely feature a warmer MDR than 2018/‘19, along with much cooler ENSO, during the peak months of ASO. Note that 2019, which is probably a better analog for 2022 than 2018, featured at least one Cat-4+ in the MDR, along with one storm that neared MH status while in the MDR. Given this, I see no reason to doubt that 2022 could feature at least two majors in the MDR, given that it is likely to feature a somewhat warmer MDR and much cooler ENSO (to not mention a -PDO, which was absent in 2018/‘19). Most models currently suggest slightly-above-average SST in the MDR during ASO of 2022.

[NotSparta]

https://i.ibb.co/ngdhrsJ/ENSOblog-Atlantic-Nino-SST-wind-precip-anomalies-620-0.jpg

Atlantic Niños actually tend to result in cooler SSTs (=weaker instability) over the MDR (10°–20°N, 20°–60°W). Do you have any evidence that the enhanced low-level convergence associated with the Niño contributed to the formations of Elsa, Larry, and/or Sam?

Definitely Elsa. I remember a trade wind reversal at the equator in the Atlantic that gave extra vorticity to low lying waves and helped Elsa develop

That’s true, but did the Atlantic Niño play a role? Given that Atlantic Niños tend to cool the MDR, I am somewhat skeptical of the notion that they aid TCG.

In that case, it definitely did. Think of a WWB in the WPAC spinning up a TC. Exact same thing was at play with Elsa. Near equatorial westerlies enhanced vorticity and helped waves try to spin up, and it was successful with Elsa

[zzh]

[Category5Kaiju]

And here we go.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/Tg4dTHp.png

Funny thing is, the NAO technically isn't even negative yet. By the time it does dip it lines up with the stronger anoms (the deeper reds) on the hovmoller chart you posted. By then I'd imagine we'll start to see a more noticeable effect in terms of SSTs.

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515490349858406411

[Kingarabian]

Long term, douldn't a -NAO favor early recurvers? I think in general, La Nina's favor +NAO during the heart of hurricane season.

[SteveM]

https://i.ibb.co/ngdhrsJ/ENSOblog-Atlantic-Nino-SST-wind-precip-anomalies-620-0.jpg

Atlantic Niños actually tend to result in cooler SSTs (=weaker instability) over the MDR (10°–20°N, 20°–60°W). Do you have any evidence that the enhanced low-level convergence associated with the Niño contributed to the formations of Elsa, Larry, and/or Sam?

Definitely Elsa. I remember a trade wind reversal at the equator in the Atlantic that gave extra vorticity to low lying waves and helped Elsa develop

That’s true, but did the Atlantic Niño play a role? Given that Atlantic Niños tend to cool the MDR, I am somewhat skeptical of the notion that they aid TCG.

Is that picture from a specific year? And is there a clear causal link?

[NotSparta]

Long term, douldn't a -NAO favor early recurvers? I think in general, La Nina's favor +NAO during the heart of hurricane season.

Yes, if it can manage to persist into the heart of the season