Invest 97L - very complex scenario unfolding ...

[Stormsfury]

It's clearly evident on visible imagery of a LLS NW of PR/NE of Hispanola ... currently that low appears to be drifting SW back towards Hispanola or nearly stationary. However, you can clearly see south of the LLS a beginning of a change in the windflow pattern just west of the convective mass with lower clouds now beginning to push towards the south ... the area is associated with a large inverted surface trough ... there is evidence (shown by wxman57) that there indeed is a MLC (strong 500mb vort max) embedded within the deep convective mass ... however, also pointed out was the medium wind flow west of the convection was SSW ... this has become quite a complex situation ... apparent on WV imagery that the enhancement is baroclinicly driven with westerly shear becoming strongly divergent over the MLC at this time.
Basically, the models may be having a hard time trying to find a dominant feature at this time ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The 00z CMC Ensembles are just as mystifiying ... as it's a widely divergent as the operational and including spinning up a new feature late in the period (CMC5 from the remnant swirl) ... most of the ensemble members sweep the system into the full latitude trough) ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The NOGAPS offers an interesting scenario as well with the splitting of energy with the current LLS ending up in the SW Caribbean and moving inland over Honduras/Nicaragua and with the current MLC being swept up but then a new piece of energy being left behind somewhat in the Central Atlantic ... something that would be supported by the NOGAPS ensemble members. The NOGAPS ens. members (link below) sweep a full latitude trough deep into the Atlantic and would serve to sweep the system N and then NE ...

500mb Mean Geo Heights
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/j ... 00_sd.html

500mb Spaghetti Plots (or basically put, the spread of the ensemble members).
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/j ... _spag.html

Mean MSLP and 1000-500mb Thickness
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/j ... r_thk.html

Again, the UKMET is basically the only model which totally doesn't sweep the system into the Atlantic ... instead driving it south after the trough bypasses it ... and I still don't buy that solution ...

Anyways, in the short term ...

Expect more of what Puerto Rico and surrounding islands do NOT need right now, and that is more potentially very heavy rains ... and the evolution of this system should development occur is a very slow one at best ...

Stay safe down there in the Islands.

SF

[msbee]

thanks for the report Stormsfury
it's much appreciated
I just wish someone could tell us when it is going to stop raining here

[Steve H.]

CMC05 looks pretty cool. Its still a wait and see (sea)

[Rainband]

Stay safe all of you

[wxman57]

thanks for the report Stormsfury
it's much appreciated
I just wish someone could tell us when it is going to stop raining here

The heaviest squalls are already passing to your east. There should be only lingering light rain there in PR by Thursday morning.

[Ola]

local mets are saying that it will rain even more tomorrow. We will see.

[msbee]

The heaviest squalls are already passing to your east. There should be only lingering light rain there in PR by Thursday morning.

wxman
I AM East of PR!

[Stormsfury]

Well, the Eastern Atlantic just doesn't want to simmer down convection wise, does it? Anyway, here's a 3 HOURLY IR Temperatures for the last 5 days in the Tropical Atlantic ... you can see just when the current invest (97L) really began to flare up beginning back on the 8th.