2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Shell Mound]

Looking at the models and analogs, there are two seasons that seem like good steering analogs for 2022: 2005 and 2020. These two seasons both had the same SSTA pattern, had impacts in similar places (Louisiana and Central America), and had similar progressions. Looking at the ECMWF Z500 forecast, which actually verifies quite well for a field with very low skill, the pressure pattern for 2022 looks quite similar to that of 2005 and 2020 combined. In fact, the patterns are nearly identical: high pressure over NPac, low pressure over SPac, low pressure near Perth, high pressure over New Foundland, high pressure over European Russia, etc...

https://i.postimg.cc/52Hzhfkx/ps2png-worker-commands-dbd6fcf4b-52sbv-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Mv23r-V.png

https://i.postimg.cc/dtNdNh6H/y-Io-GSthk-Q.png

https://i.ibb.co/nr582J1/201621-ASO500mb.png

It is interesting to see how persistent this general setup has been since 2016: note the same basic configuration and positioning of ridges over the North (+EPO)/South Pacific, eastern Canada, Iberia, and so on. Also observe the persistent Icelandic low, along with the TUTT over the central Atlantic (=sinking air/below-average precipitation near the Leeward Islands). Some of these features seem to have become semi-permanent since 2016 and have dominated the peak months of ASO. On balance the setup has supported TC clusters over the easternmost MDR and in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely contributing in large part to the concentration of hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast since 2016 (the landfalls on the Carolinas can be attributed to the influence of the TUTT + northward displacement of ridging + development outside the MDR):

https://i.ibb.co/xhph2Qx/Peninsular-Hurricanes.png

By contrast, several setups that yielded significant hurricane impacts on peninsular Florida tended to exclude the TUTT from the central Atlantic, coincided with lower heights in the deep tropics, and exhibited a pronounced southwestward extension of the ridge over eastern North America, along with overall westward displacement of the features that are present in 2016–21, e.g., the trough over western North America and the Iberian ridge, the latter of which is replaced by a mid-level low or weakness:

https://i.ibb.co/P4XY3q7/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-16-30-27.png

It seems that the warmer climate of recent decades, along with the subtropical warm pool off the East Coast, has contributed to the semi-permanent ridge/TUTT configuration that we have seen since 2016, and therefore has resulted in persistent “clustering” of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, over Central America, and OTS. This kind of pattern seems to protect peninsular Florida for the most part while placing the Gulf Coast and Central America under threat, along with, to a lesser degree, the Carolinas (Outer Banks). Since 2016 the Gulf Coast has seen thirteen hurricane strikes, while peninsular Florida has seen just one and the East Coast four.

The Gulf Coast’s recent experience has mimicked that of peninsular Florida in the 1940s and that of the East Coast in the ‘50s.

I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.

Wxman57’s latest post on the season

Well, this doesn’t sound like welcome news for Floridians...

[skyline385]

Looking at the models and analogs, there are two seasons that seem like good steering analogs for 2022: 2005 and 2020. These two seasons both had the same SSTA pattern, had impacts in similar places (Louisiana and Central America), and had similar progressions. Looking at the ECMWF Z500 forecast, which actually verifies quite well for a field with very low skill, the pressure pattern for 2022 looks quite similar to that of 2005 and 2020 combined. In fact, the patterns are nearly identical: high pressure over NPac, low pressure over SPac, low pressure near Perth, high pressure over New Foundland, high pressure over European Russia, etc...

https://i.postimg.cc/52Hzhfkx/ps2png-worker-commands-dbd6fcf4b-52sbv-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Mv23r-V.png

https://i.postimg.cc/dtNdNh6H/y-Io-GSthk-Q.png

https://i.ibb.co/nr582J1/201621-ASO500mb.png

It is interesting to see how persistent this general setup has been since 2016: note the same basic configuration and positioning of ridges over the North (+EPO)/South Pacific, eastern Canada, Iberia, and so on. Also observe the persistent Icelandic low, along with the TUTT over the central Atlantic (=sinking air/below-average precipitation near the Leeward Islands). Some of these features seem to have become semi-permanent since 2016 and have dominated the peak months of ASO. On balance the setup has supported TC clusters over the easternmost MDR and in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely contributing in large part to the concentration of hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast since 2016 (the landfalls on the Carolinas can be attributed to the influence of the TUTT + northward displacement of ridging + development outside the MDR):

https://i.ibb.co/xhph2Qx/Peninsular-Hurricanes.png

By contrast, several setups that yielded significant hurricane impacts on peninsular Florida tended to exclude the TUTT from the central Atlantic, coincided with lower heights in the deep tropics, and exhibited a pronounced southwestward extension of the ridge over eastern North America, along with overall westward displacement of the features that are present in 2016–21, e.g., the trough over western North America and the Iberian ridge, the latter of which is replaced by a mid-level low or weakness:

https://i.ibb.co/P4XY3q7/Ska-rmavbild-2022-04-05-kl-16-30-27.png

It seems that the warmer climate of recent decades, along with the subtropical warm pool off the East Coast, has contributed to the semi-permanent ridge/TUTT configuration that we have seen since 2016, and therefore has resulted in persistent “clustering” of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, over Central America, and OTS. This kind of pattern seems to protect peninsular Florida for the most part while placing the Gulf Coast and Central America under threat, along with, to a lesser degree, the Carolinas (Outer Banks). Since 2016 the Gulf Coast has seen thirteen hurricane strikes, while peninsular Florida has seen just one and the East Coast four.

The Gulf Coast’s recent experience has mimicked that of peninsular Florida in the 1940s and that of the East Coast in the ‘50s.

I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.

Wxman57’s latest post on the season

Well, this doesn’t sound like welcome news for Floridians...

It's kinda funny how it's well accepted that model accuracy falls off a cliff 5 days onwards yet so many are arguing about steering currents for July onwards in April. I am not saying that anyone is wrong in their reasoning but that it's April right now and that it's probably a coin toss on who ends up being right.

[Audrey2Katrina]

NHC director.

https://twitter.com/wx4keg/status/1516789559824044040

Was just going to post that as well. Such a crazy stat.

Selective statistics like that don't impress me. We're talking a total of 6 IF you buy into the barely 130 mph (made it by 1 mph) landfall of Harvey. So you have 5 or 6 landfalling Cat 4 or 5's ... I could say you'd only have about 1 less if you counted storms from 1960-1969... Camille being a more powerful 5 than Michael, and I'm not going to bicker over Categories that we didn't have the equipment to be sure of with storms like Donna, Betsy, Carla, Dora, (very high 3 as compared to Harvey's very low 4). Statistics can be played around with a lot. While we can say, yes, more US landfalls over this stretch of time than that... the fact remains that the adage statistics can lie, and liars love statistics comes to mind. No, not calling Graham a liar, just saying selectively picking the time frame he chose paints a convenient picture for those who might think that we can draw generalized conclusions across 4 or 5 years, as opposed to the preceding 50 years or so... but it's all in what time frame we select, and what specific categories we narrow it down to to make it more impressive. And in considering just how many we truly are talking about. Just a quick example, I could have said we had more landfalling Category 5's in the second time frame as in the first--yes it's misleading because it spans quite a stretch of years, although I could narrow it a bit by saying that from 1969 to 1992 (23 years) we had twice as many landfalling Cat 5's in the US as we had in the 28 years that followed from 1993-2021. JMHO. Now had the stat showed they had more "Major" landfalling US hurricanes in that 5 year span, than in the previous 50--and it had been by at least 3 to 5 more.... then I would have to take note--and be impressed, but selecting ONLY 4's and 5's (a very narrow range -- hence small numbers, among which one of which I feel is questionable at landfall and the only 5 had to be upgraded) I just feel it's manipulation of statistics, and if you say that's what I did-- You'd be right.. I did.. to show my point.

[USTropics]

Just wanted to clarify some of the comments earlier on the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (or Atlantic Nino), there are some misconceptions on how this translates to MDR SSTAs later in the season and its relationship to the Pacific ENSO.

First want to state that the Pacific ENSO is THE dominating global climate pattern and has a well-researched and proven impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, both in terms of SSTs and wind shear anomalies. There is no apparent direct, synchronous relationship between the Atlantic Equatorial Mode and the Pacific ENSO, with the Atlantic Nino usually peaking in boreal summer and the Pacific ENSO usually peaking in boreal winter.

Some correlation between the Pacific ENSO and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode’s spatiotemporal diversity exists. Just like the Pacific ENSO has periodic variations with El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) phases, the Atlantic Equatorial Mode has distinct variations as well. It’s a little more complex, but there are 4 “common” varieties labeled as early-terminating, persistent, early-onset, and late-onset (there can also be “mixed” varieties, but these are typically only referenced in research literature). As you can see from the common variety labels, the Atlantic Equatorial Mode is subject to onset-driven mechanisms that typically has some sort of external forcing, while the Pacific ENSO is subject more to ocean-atmosphere coupled mechanisms (i.e., driven by sea surface temperature changes and atmospheric pressure changes).

It's important to clarify that the most direct impact the Atlantic Equatorial Mode has in terms of global climate variability is rainfall anomalies over West Africa and South America and equatorial SSTAs confined to the Atlantic. This is some of the material I posted last season, but will also post it here for those that are interested (added 2021 to persistent data set):



Category: Early termination
Years: 1974, 1991, and 1996
SSTA observations: Rapid and complete termination of Atlantic Nino and warm equatorial Atlantic SSTAs shortly after August. From December-May, SSTAs in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) are typically cooler and SSTAs in the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) are typically warmer.
Precipitation observations: Precipitation over West Africa/sub-Sahel region (0-10N latitude) persists only through July-August. Reduced precipitation over northeastern South America from April-May.
Mode observations: -AMM develops in DJF and persists through MAM. Cold SSTAs in the equatorial Pacific along with La Nina conditions are exhibited in boreal winter.
Wind observations: Positive northeasterly wind anomalies in in TNA and positive northwesterly wind anomalies in TSA during MAM.

Category: Persistent
Years: 1963, 1973, 1984, 1987, 2010, 2016, 2019, and 2021
SSTA observations: Strong SSTAs observed in the Atlantic Nino area and warm equatorial Atlantic SSTAs that continue through the end of the year.
Precipitation observations: Precipitation is enhanced over northeastern South America September-December but exhibits reduced rainfall in this region from January-May.
Mode observations: Strong Pacific El Nino events during the preceding boreal winter are typical, but not always a leading indicator.
Wind observations: Weak trade wind anomalies in both hemispheres from December-May. Increased southwesterly wind anomalies located directly off the west coast of Africa reduces coastal upwelling (reinforcing Atlantic Nino).
 
Category: Early onset
Years: 1988, 1995, 1998
SSTA observations: Gradual development of equatorial warm SSTAs starting in January but begin to dissipate as early as March. Southwest Africa develops warm SSTAs in DJF. Cooler SSTAs are common in TNA from December-May. Positive SSTAs are confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic region.
Precipitation observations: Increased precipitation is typically not observed over West Africa/sub-Sahel region before July, and especially between the months of January-April. West Africa/sub-Sahel region exhibits increased precipitation anomalies between the months of July-August. South America experiences enhanced precipitation from April-May.
Mode observations: Strong Pacific El Nino events during the preceding boreal winter are typical.
Wind observations: Persistent interhemispheric wind anomalies from December-May.

Category: Late onset
Years: 1949, 1951, 1968, 1981, 1993, and 2018
SSTA observations: A sudden and late development of warm equatorial SSTAs that begin in May and peak in June. Warm SSTAs persist through much of Summer in the Atlantic Nino and equatorial Atlantic region.
Precipitation observations: Enhanced precipitation rates are over West Africa and the sub-Sahel region from July-October. Neutral precipitation rates over northeastern South America are observed from July-October. Reduced rainfall over the Sahelian region (10-20N latitude) is reduced during June-September (i.e., a weakened West African monsoon during boreal summer).
Wind observations: Neutral wind anomalies are typical from December-May.



Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies


Precipitation Anomalies


200mb Velocity Potential Anomalies


500mb Heights Anomalies


500mb Relative Humidity Anomalies


10m Zonal Wind Anomalies


10m Meridional Wind Anomalies

[Iceresistance]

Amazing post, USTropics!

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on this, the Gulf of Mexico is still wetter-than-average:



Previous 2 years:

[Category5Kaiju]

That -NAO is beginning to really do its magic

[skyline385]

Curious as to what everyone here thinks of this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1514610969145581586

Think it has some merit as Global Mean SSTA does affect each basin like the interaction from the WPAC typhoon last season.

Here is what the latest plot looks like even after the MDR warming

[SFLcane]

Wondering what new data Phil and 57 saw to increase ace for the season to 170-190 I really see nothing right now to support that.

[NotSparta]

Curious as to what everyone here thinks of this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1514610969145581586

Think it has some merit as Global Mean SSTA does affect each basin like the interaction from the WPAC typhoon last season.

Here is what the latest plot looks like even after the MDR warming

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220422/a073509a61faeb81c985a181cb616ab6.jpg

It has begun to warm a little yes but the meat of the -NAO has yet to arrive. I'd probably wait at least a week or so before making judgments as it could easily warm a good bit from that (or perhaps not). Once we know what it looks like a few days into May then I think we'll have a better idea of if we're going into the season with a coolish MDR or not

[AlphaToOmega]

The weak trade winds are expected, according to the GFS to continue until April 28. Over the past 4 days, the MDR SSTAs have increased by 0.14 C thanks to the weak trade winds. What this means is that the MDR could have SSTAs of 0.35 C before the trade winds come back, which might mean something, but what is still more important is the pattern for ASO.



As for the 170-190 ACE, I can only speculate, but for the CSU June forecasts, four indices are used to predict the hurricane season: NAtl SSTs (analogous to AMO), subtropical NAtl pressures (analogous to NAO), trade winds over equatorial Pacific (analogous to ENSO), and SSTs east of Australia. Data have shown that May AMO and May SSTs east of Australia have positive correlations to ACE and that May NAO and May ENSO have negative correlations to ACE. Right now, it seems that the AMO is positive, that the SSTs east of Australia are positive, that the ENSO is negative, and that the NAO is negative. Plus, according to the April forecast, the models all showed a hyperactive season: the CSU's statistical model showed 168 ACE; the ECMWF showed 180 ACE; the UKMET showed 166 ACE; the JMA showed 231 ACE.

[NotSparta]

The models are the big thing in the CSU forecast. You can tell with the numbers they spat out CSU was trying to adjust lower where they could but they still ended up with that 160 ACE number. As for the -NAO, it seems those very weak trade winds from it will be not that long lived, but it could provide a decent bump in the MDR SSTAs. So far that is the big thing holding this season back it seems

[skyline385]

:uarrow:

The models are the big thing in the CSU forecast. You can tell with the numbers they spat out CSU was trying to adjust lower where they could but they still ended up with that 160 ACE number. As for the -NAO, it seems those very weak trade winds from it will be not that long lived, but it could provide a decent bump in the MDR SSTAs. So far that is the big thing holding this season back it seems

I am not sure if that is the big thing holding back this season. We are still in April, so much could happen until June/July.

[weeniepatrol]

Curious as to what everyone here thinks of this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1514610969145581586

Think it has some merit as Global Mean SSTA does affect each basin like the interaction from the WPAC typhoon last season.

Here is what the latest plot looks like even after the MDR warming

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220422/a073509a61faeb81c985a181cb616ab6.jpg

I think less than nothing of this and here are examples why:

1999



2018



2019



2021



It's been proven again and again, slightly below normal ssts at this time of year means nothing. Every single one of these years was above-average in ACE and years like 1999/2021 had numerous major hurricanes in the MDR.

[skyline385]

Curious as to what everyone here thinks of this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1514610969145581586

Think it has some merit as Global Mean SSTA does affect each basin like the interaction from the WPAC typhoon last season.

Here is what the latest plot looks like even after the MDR warming

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220422/a073509a61faeb81c985a181cb616ab6.jpg

I think less than nothing of this and here are examples why:

1999

https://i.imgur.com/E4wvnMy.png

2018

https://i.imgur.com/SiIbOtm.png

2019

https://i.imgur.com/mwMRmdI.png

2021

https://i.imgur.com/Xnl2dSD.png

It's been proven again and again, slightly below normal ssts at this time of year means nothing. Every single one of these years was above-average in ACE and years like 1999/2021 had numerous major hurricanes in the MDR.

I dont think you read my post correctly.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow:

The models are the big thing in the CSU forecast. You can tell with the numbers they spat out CSU was trying to adjust lower where they could but they still ended up with that 160 ACE number. As for the -NAO, it seems those very weak trade winds from it will be not that long lived, but it could provide a decent bump in the MDR SSTAs. So far that is the big thing holding this season back it seems

I am not sure if that is the big thing holding back this season. We are still in April, so much could happen until June/July.

What's another unfavorable indicator right now? It seems to me the MDR being cool is the biggest one at the time

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I noticed that the G(E)FS has been trending away from the idea of a significant trade surge in the wake of the current -NAO/relaxed trades today in the longer term. Could help the ongoing warmup persist for longer.

[skyline385]

:uarrow:

The models are the big thing in the CSU forecast. You can tell with the numbers they spat out CSU was trying to adjust lower where they could but they still ended up with that 160 ACE number. As for the -NAO, it seems those very weak trade winds from it will be not that long lived, but it could provide a decent bump in the MDR SSTAs. So far that is the big thing holding this season back it seems

I am not sure if that is the big thing holding back this season. We are still in April, so much could happen until June/July.

What's another unfavorable indicator right now? It seems to me the MDR being cool is the biggest one at the time

What I meant to say was that SST isn't the only deciding factor and temps are already between 27-28C in the western MDR and the Caribbean and that is in April. The SSTs could be 30C and and the MDR could still be disrupted by something like Saharan dust. You don't need super hot SSTs for a season to be bad. In 2020 for example, the Atlantic was burning hot in April but most MDR runners still struggled. Teddy was the only exception and even that underwent RI right at the northern edge of the MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am not sure if that is the big thing holding back this season. We are still in April, so much could happen until June/July.

What's another unfavorable indicator right now? It seems to me the MDR being cool is the biggest one at the time

What I meant to say was that SST isn't the only deciding factor and temps are already between 27-28C in the western MDR and the Caribbean and that is in April. The SSTs could be 30C and and the MDR could still be disrupted by something like Saharan dust. You don't need super hot SSTs for a season to be bad. In 2020 for example, the Atlantic was burning hot in April but most MDR runners still struggled. Teddy was the only exception and even that underwent RI right at the northern edge of the MDR.

What's quite interesting imho is how years like 2005 and 2020 pretty much had a wicked warm MDR that lasted throughout spring but nevertheless had MDR tracker issues. 2005 had no major hurricanes in the MDR, and 2020 just barely had Teddy. 2010, while also a year that had insane MDR warmth that lasted throughout the spring and summer, did feature storms like Igor and Julia, but for some reason, it seemed to have a mid-level dry air issue that persisted in the season and prevented the season from being even more active. While a small sample size, it is quite interesting to see how these "fiery MDR" years that seem like they are going to go ballistic everywhere seem to struggle with some degree of dust/dryness problems, per se, during the actual season.

[NotSparta]

I am not sure if that is the big thing holding back this season. We are still in April, so much could happen until June/July.

What's another unfavorable indicator right now? It seems to me the MDR being cool is the biggest one at the time

What I meant to say was that SST isn't the only deciding factor and temps are already between 27-28C in the western MDR and the Caribbean and that is in April. The SSTs could be 30C and and the MDR could still be disrupted by something like Saharan dust. You don't need super hot SSTs for a season to be bad. In 2020 for example, the Atlantic was burning hot in April but most MDR runners still struggled. Teddy was the only exception and even that underwent RI right at the northern edge of the MDR.

Oh, I was misunderstanding you. I meant moreso the setup going into the season. There are other variables that don't have to do with SSTs but it happens that the one that is most negative for the Atlantic has to do with SSTs