2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[mixedDanilo.E]

The weak trade winds are very prevenlant in the northern MDR tho throughout the entire run so idk if we will see a pause in warming in the northern MDR - the NAO is still very negative and pressure patterns across the Atlantic are very weak still - honestly I think the trades being hinted might be a weird response to som stuff that won’t even have implications on the MDR. So I don’t see Atlantic warming stopping at all at least in the northern MDR.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517510597633576965

[Kingarabian]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the GFS and its enhanced MDR trades solution until proven otherwise.

The 90 day CFS agrees with the EPS. The CFS bands from the EQ to 7.5N/7.5N to 15N show very weak trades or even raw westerlies over the MDR east of 40W. Trades will be enhanced over the ECaribbean though, but that is to be expected.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Check out that warm patch near 25N/35W migrating southward, wonder if we could be starting a transition away from the current EOF2 +AMO phase we're in into something more classic-looking (EOF1) thanks to the trade winds slackening.


If the GFS is correct the strongest westerly anoms haven't even started yet.

[Long John]

those westerlies will be short-lived based on model projections

[AlphaToOmega]

The MDR has warmed to 0.178 C above-average today, and further warming is expected until April 28.

[NotSparta]

Check out that warm patch near 25N/35W migrating southward, wonder if we could be starting a transition away from the current EOF2 +AMO phase we're in into something more classic-looking (EOF1) thanks to the trade winds slackening.
https://i.ibb.co/jV99wCT/crw-ssta-tropatl-2.gif
https://i.ibb.co/c300fPs/crw-sstac-tropatl.gif
If the GFS is correct the strongest westerly anoms haven't even started yet.
https://i.ibb.co/phwySYb/gfs-15-N-hov-uanom-2022042306.png

That area is even more pronounced on OISST

[Category5Kaiju]

Check out that warm patch near 25N/35W migrating southward, wonder if we could be starting a transition away from the current EOF2 +AMO phase we're in into something more classic-looking (EOF1) thanks to the trade winds slackening.
https://i.ibb.co/jV99wCT/crw-ssta-tropatl-2.gif
https://i.ibb.co/c300fPs/crw-sstac-tropatl.gif
If the GFS is correct the strongest westerly anoms haven't even started yet.
https://i.ibb.co/phwySYb/gfs-15-N-hov-uanom-2022042306.png

That area is even more pronounced on OISST

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/967482895021273138/mdr_warming_2022.gif

Wow, that's already looking pretty remarkable for a warm-up. If the GFS is right and we have yet to see the strong westerlies, this is going to be quite interesting to watch.

[NotSparta]

Check out that warm patch near 25N/35W migrating southward, wonder if we could be starting a transition away from the current EOF2 +AMO phase we're in into something more classic-looking (EOF1) thanks to the trade winds slackening.
https://i.ibb.co/jV99wCT/crw-ssta-tropatl-2.gif
https://i.ibb.co/c300fPs/crw-sstac-tropatl.gif
If the GFS is correct the strongest westerly anoms haven't even started yet.
https://i.ibb.co/phwySYb/gfs-15-N-hov-uanom-2022042306.png

That area is even more pronounced on OISST

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/967482895021273138/mdr_warming_2022.gif

Wow, that's already looking pretty remarkable for a warm-up. If the GFS is right and we have yet to see the strong westerlies, this is going to be quite interesting to watch.

I wonder what happens when the near normal/stronger than usual trades reappear. Does it try to sink back towards where it is? Or does it just kind of stop warming but not really cool off

[Long John]

cooling will likely resume when those easterlies come back

[cycloneye]

Good discussions going on in twitter about the MDR and the warming.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1517868722962247681




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1517880010786459655




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1517899201736282113




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1517883317508616193




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1517905059069272065




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1517907556609396737




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1517950326657138688




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1517982075307147271

[SFLcane]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568

[NotSparta]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

Then there's this. We'll see which wins in the end

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1517975684991406082

[AlphaToOmega]

Interestingly, the models seem to be backing off of a sustained period of strong trade winds. MDR warming is going to halt on April 29, but what happens after that is still an open question. If the trade winds go back to being weak, warming will continue (warming will obviously be slower than it is right now because the anomalies will not be nearly as large), but if the trade winds stay strong, two things could happen: the MDR could cool back to pre-negative-NAO levels, or the MDR could remain slightly above-average but not change in SSTAs.

[Kingarabian]

It's also better not to monitor warming only a daily basis. Have to go week by week. There are times when modeled trades fail to cool waters and vice versa.

[skyline385]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first? Also has 57 said anywhere that he also thinks it's going to be a hyperactive season, i only read his post sharing his discussion with Phil.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first? Also has 57 said anywhere that he also thinks it's going to be a hyperactive season, i only read his post sharing his discussion with Phil.

Pretty sure he was referring to this post.

[NotSparta]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first? Also has 57 said anywhere that he also thinks it's going to be a hyperactive season, i only read his post sharing his discussion with Phil.

Pretty sure he was referring to this post.

Besides technically CSU already explicitly forecast a hyperactive season, though borderline

[skyline385]

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first? Also has 57 said anywhere that he also thinks it's going to be a hyperactive season, i only read his post sharing his discussion with Phil.

Pretty sure he was referring to this post.

Besides technically CSU already explicitly forecast a hyperactive season, though borderline

Don't want to be pedantic but CSU explicitly forecast an above-average season not hyperactive just yet. Yes it on the higher end of above-average but it's not a hyperactive prediction.

And yea that's the wxman post i was talking about, in it he only mentions that Phil is going to revise his numbers. He didn't talk about his own numbers in that post which is what i was asking about.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517989440181919745