2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Gut feeling upper texas coast will get nailed this year

Not sure if it's because we are using List 2 this year (much like 1992 and 2004 did, with 1926 and 1950 also being years that would have used List 2 if the naming convention existed back then), but I have a sense that South Florida's luck will end this year. Hopefully not though.

[cycloneye]

As always these fellows do and that is interesting takes about MDR-AMO-AMM and comparisons to other years.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1519806143698284549




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1519808715356057602




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1519809609535574016




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1519815563509477376




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1519820888664944642




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1519821181062467586

[AlphaToOmega]

Should we consider 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as -PDO years during ASO? On the PSL Timeseries webpage, the index lists 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 having +PDO during ASO. However, according to the data provided by NOAA NCEI, those years had -PDO during ASO.

PSL Timeseries PDO data:

2015 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01
2016 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17
2017 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50
2018 0.70 0.37 -0.05 0.11 0.11 -0.04 0.11 0.18 0.09 0.26 -0.05 0.52
2019 0.66 0.46 0.37 1.07 1.03 1.09 1.03 0.38 0.41 -0.45 0.15 0.97
2020 -0.23 -0.68 -0.82 -0.57 0.09 -0.08 -0.38 -0.28 -0.70 -0.69 -1.12 -0.90
2021 -0.16 -0.54 -1.17 -0.91 -1.18 -1.87 -1.12 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90
-9.90

NCEI PDO data:

2015 1.50 1.52 1.33 0.89 0.32 0.81 1.40 0.98 0.96 0.84 0.17 0.28
2016 0.74 1.29 1.55 1.73 1.60 0.85 0.56 -0.61 -0.81 -0.43 0.96 0.60
2017 -0.05 -0.01 0.10 0.56 0.45 0.35 -0.43 -0.63 -0.19 -0.68 -0.59 -0.03
2018 0.40 -0.07 -0.71 -0.81 -0.45 -0.65 -0.01 -0.21 -0.35 -0.57 -0.69 -0.20
2019 -0.34 -0.72 -0.34 0.10 0.27 -0.05 0.55 0.01 0.13 -0.89 -0.49 0.00
2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.76 -0.91 -1.32 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.10 -1.68 -1.85 -2.01 -1.81 -1.94 -0.93 -1.96 -3.11 -2.73 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.92 -1.68-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1520060380223090689




Take a look at the Loop Current!

[Kingarabian]

Should we consider 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as -PDO years during ASO? On the PSL Timeseries webpage, the index lists 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 having +PDO during ASO. However, according to the data provided by NOAA NCEI, those years had -PDO during ASO.

PSL Timeseries PDO data:

2015 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01
2016 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17
2017 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50
2018 0.70 0.37 -0.05 0.11 0.11 -0.04 0.11 0.18 0.09 0.26 -0.05 0.52
2019 0.66 0.46 0.37 1.07 1.03 1.09 1.03 0.38 0.41 -0.45 0.15 0.97
2020 -0.23 -0.68 -0.82 -0.57 0.09 -0.08 -0.38 -0.28 -0.70 -0.69 -1.12 -0.90
2021 -0.16 -0.54 -1.17 -0.91 -1.18 -1.87 -1.12 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90 -9.90
-9.90

NCEI PDO data:

2015 1.50 1.52 1.33 0.89 0.32 0.81 1.40 0.98 0.96 0.84 0.17 0.28
2016 0.74 1.29 1.55 1.73 1.60 0.85 0.56 -0.61 -0.81 -0.43 0.96 0.60
2017 -0.05 -0.01 0.10 0.56 0.45 0.35 -0.43 -0.63 -0.19 -0.68 -0.59 -0.03
2018 0.40 -0.07 -0.71 -0.81 -0.45 -0.65 -0.01 -0.21 -0.35 -0.57 -0.69 -0.20
2019 -0.34 -0.72 -0.34 0.10 0.27 -0.05 0.55 0.01 0.13 -0.89 -0.49 0.00
2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.76 -0.91 -1.32 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.10 -1.68 -1.85 -2.01 -1.81 -1.94 -0.93 -1.96 -3.11 -2.73 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.92 -1.68-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99-99.99

2014-2019 was a dominant +PDO phase. Those months were +PDO.

NOAA NCEI has always been off. There is a problem in either their climo period or they're using an erroneous calculation.

It's best to use JMA's numbers:
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt

They were the closest to JISAO's numbers before it went defunct.

[AlphaToOmega]

Very clear -PDO/+AMO signature:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GEFS showing easterlies in the equatorial Atlantic to start off May, could tip the scales toward +AMM if it verifies, especially if the nascent +AMO signal that has developed over the past week persists.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am quite curious to see how activity in June/July of this year (in other words, early-season activity) would look like compared to some of the recent years. The reason why I say this is that at least going back to 2016, it seems like there has not been a year that featured a MAM-MJJ streak that was -0.5 C or cooler in the Nino 3,4 region, and I am wondering if this may have an effect (at least shear-wise) in the Atlantic.

2016 was bound to suffer some of the lingering effects of the Super El Nino from 2015, 2017 featured a period of warm neutral in the early summer, 2018 featured a steady rising trend from weak La Nina to dead neutral by MJJ, 2019 was bound to suffer some of the lingering effects of 2018's weak La Nina, and 2020 featured a "pseudo-El Nino" effect as OND (2019)-JFM (2020) featured +0.5-0.6 C anomalies. 2021 did come quite close to featuring a continuous La Nina, but it did see -0.4 C anomalies in MJJ and JJA. 2022 on the other hand could very well feature a continuing (at least weak La Nina) throughout the early summer, which makes 2022 quite different from 2016-2021. 2016-2021 did not feature any super strong June/July systems, but interestingly, 2021's Elsa could have conceivably attained major status if it simply slowed down. While I am sure nothing is a guarantee, I do wonder if due to this La Nina 2022's early-season months could be more conducive for activity.

[skyline385]

I am quite curious to see how activity in June/July of this year (in other words, early-season activity) would look like compared to some of the recent years. The reason why I say this is that at least going back to 2016, it seems like there has not been a year that featured a MAM-MJJ streak that was -0.5 C or cooler in the Nino 3,4 region, and I am wondering if this may have an effect (at least shear-wise) in the Atlantic.

2016 was bound to suffer some of the lingering effects of the Super El Nino from 2015, 2017 featured a period of warm neutral in the early summer, 2018 featured a steady rising trend from weak La Nina to dead neutral by MJJ, 2019 was bound to suffer some of the lingering effects of 2018's weak La Nina, and 2020 featured a "pseudo-El Nino" effect as OND (2019)-JFM (2020) featured +0.5-0.6 C anomalies. 2021 did come quite close to featuring a continuous La Nina, but it did see -0.4 C anomalies in MJJ and JJA. 2022 on the other hand could very well feature a continuing (at least weak La Nina) throughout the early summer, which makes 2022 quite different from 2016-2021. 2016-2021 did not feature any super strong June/July systems, but interestingly, 2021's Elsa could have conceivably attained major status if it simply slowed down. While I am sure nothing is a guarantee, I do wonder if due to this La Nina 2022's early-season months could be more conducive for activity.

If your criteria is only a very persistent La Nina in the previous year and a strong Nina through spring in current year, then 2000 is a good example. Alberto, the first major for the season, looked pretty similar to Sam as well. Isaac, another C4 took went on a very similar route.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1520446114884993024

[AlphaToOmega]

We need to see what this does to the MDR. It is currently 0.284 C above-average, but it will change.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1520446114884993024

And to add to a more favorable setup compared to 2008, the EPAC is currently cooler near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 than it was in May 2008.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 2008 comparisons being brought up are quite interesting, and mildly concerning to an extent. 2008 was the last season to feature a major hurricane in July, and while it was not operationally hyperactive, it could have very well been so had it had slightly more total named storms or longer-lasting/more powerful storms (for instance, if Gustav or Ike even briefly became a Cat 5, that would have driven 2008's ACE easily up to the hyperactive threshold). But what really intrigues me is how that was a ripe year for multiple severe land impacts, much like 2004, 2005, and 2017.

If 2022 adopts a sst anomaly configuration like 2008, that may not be a good sign. Things can change though, so I'm staying tuned.

*also, question for the experts/folks into hurricane history, but didn't 2008 also have record low shear in the Caribbean in the early hurricane season months? I remember hearing something like that, though I am not sure if that is true

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1520446114884993024

And to add to a more favorable setup compared to 2008, the EPAC is currently cooler near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 than it was in May 2008.

2008 made more sense as an analog last year due to 2nd year Nina and strong Atlantic Nino. These are not the case this year. This Nina is persistent enough that we're somewhat in uncharted territory right now and most of the 3rd year Ninas had a -AMO for some reason or at least an EOF2 +AMO. I'm definitely more bullish than I was at the start of the month.

[AlphaToOmega]

The CanSIPS has been fixed:

[cycloneye]

More graphics from the CanSIPS model in this twitter thread. This is what I dont want to see happening looking from Puerto Rico.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724858300153857




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724861311762432




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724864851759106




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724868165156864

[SFLcane]

Just speculating but it looks like everything shoved into Central America potentially from the looks at that steering. 2007 perhaps? Well see

[SFLcane]

Wait what? Westerly anomalies across the entire basin in July? Last time I saw this was I won’t say it 2005.

[NotSparta]

Wait what? Westerly anomalies across the entire basin in July? Last time I saw this was I won’t say it 2005.

Think it said something like that last year too. We'll see if it can actually verify this year

[Category5Kaiju]

Imho, 2022 definitely has a high ceiling, and if its forecast conditions verify (especially with those weak trades in July), then we may be in for a hyperactive and (possibly) impactful season. Now I do not know how (assuming it is indeed hyperactive) 2022 would compare with 2017 or 2020, but it is something that we really need to watch going forward.