2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AlphaToOmega]

Imho, 2022 definitely has a high ceiling, and if its forecast conditions verify (especially with those weak trades in July), then we may be in for a hyperactive and (possibly) impactful season. Now I do not know how (assuming it is indeed hyperactive) 2022 would compare with 2017 or 2020, but it is something that we really need to watch going forward.

Based on ASO conditions, 2020 actually had a higher ceiling than 2017 because 2020 had a -PDO, but 2017 had a +PDO. However, 2017 ultimately had more ACE than 2020. As for 2022, it will likely have a bigger ceiling than 2017, but I am not so sure about 2020. However, "ceiling" does not equate to actual activity. 2010 actually had the highest ceiling of any recent season, but its ACE was only 6 above the hyperactive threshold; so one season can have a higher "ceiling" than another but be less active.

[skyline385]

More graphics from the CanSIPS model in this twitter thread. This is what I dont want to see happening looking from Puerto Rico.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724858300153857




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724861311762432




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724864851759106




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724868165156864

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1520732624964235272

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1520738019124383745

Lots of good info in that thread, general consensus seems to be that the SIPS run is super bullish and should wait for confirmation.

Also for whatever reason, the model shows shear picking up in the MDR in August compared to June.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

More graphics from the CanSIPS model in this twitter thread. This is what I dont want to see happening looking from Puerto Rico.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724858300153857

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724861311762432

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724864851759106

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724868165156864

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1520732624964235272

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1520738019124383745

Lots of good info in that thread, general consensus seems to be that the SIPS run is super bullish and should wait for confirmation.

Also for whatever reason, the model shows shear picking up in the MDR in August compared to June.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/7152ab2c075dcc7d4c85e8c293fd413a.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/adc9b0d3908832487f63770d9853481b.jpg

That's actually how the model depicts the African Easterly Jet, which is a favorable signal. Note the arrows pointing from the easterly direction in that swath of red. An unfavorable configuration would have those arrows coming from the west which would indicate westerly shear.

[Category5Kaiju]

More graphics from the CanSIPS model in this twitter thread. This is what I dont want to see happening looking from Puerto Rico.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724858300153857

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724861311762432

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724864851759106

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724868165156864

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1520732624964235272

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1520738019124383745

Lots of good info in that thread, general consensus seems to be that the SIPS run is super bullish and should wait for confirmation.

Also for whatever reason, the model shows shear picking up in the MDR in August compared to June.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/7152ab2c075dcc7d4c85e8c293fd413a.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/adc9b0d3908832487f63770d9853481b.jpg

If anything, the EPAC becomes even more sheared in August, and while more parts of the MDR fall into the red in August, the Caribbean seems to have shear lessened too. But yeah, that's an interestingly favorable look for July

[NotSparta]

More graphics from the CanSIPS model in this twitter thread. This is what I dont want to see happening looking from Puerto Rico.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724858300153857

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724861311762432

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724864851759106

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1520724868165156864

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1520732624964235272

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1520738019124383745

Lots of good info in that thread, general consensus seems to be that the SIPS run is super bullish and should wait for confirmation.

Also for whatever reason, the model shows shear picking up in the MDR in August compared to June.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/7152ab2c075dcc7d4c85e8c293fd413a.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220501/adc9b0d3908832487f63770d9853481b.jpg

That is TEJ shear, means you have more easterly 200mb wind than normal. Can shear waves right off the coast of Africa but generally ensures the entire tropics have less shear. This pattern tends to weaken the TUTT too

[weeniepatrol]

Yeah say that august forecast verified it would at most produce enough easterly shear just to prevent waves from developing until it’s too late for a recurvature that avoids land

[Yellow Evan]

Imho, 2022 definitely has a high ceiling, and if its forecast conditions verify (especially with those weak trades in July), then we may be in for a hyperactive and (possibly) impactful season. Now I do not know how (assuming it is indeed hyperactive) 2022 would compare with 2017 or 2020, but it is something that we really need to watch going forward.

Based on ASO conditions, 2020 actually had a higher ceiling than 2017 because 2020 had a -PDO, but 2017 had a +PDO. However, 2017 ultimately had more ACE than 2020. As for 2022, it will likely have a bigger ceiling than 2017, but I am not so sure about 2020. However, "ceiling" does not equate to actual activity. 2010 actually had the highest ceiling of any recent season, but its ACE was only 6 above the hyperactive threshold; so one season can have a higher "ceiling" than another but be less active.

Does PDO really matter that much in terms of ceiling? We've seen hyperactive seasons in both +PDO and -PDO regimes.

[NotSparta]

Imho, 2022 definitely has a high ceiling, and if its forecast conditions verify (especially with those weak trades in July), then we may be in for a hyperactive and (possibly) impactful season. Now I do not know how (assuming it is indeed hyperactive) 2022 would compare with 2017 or 2020, but it is something that we really need to watch going forward.

Based on ASO conditions, 2020 actually had a higher ceiling than 2017 because 2020 had a -PDO, but 2017 had a +PDO. However, 2017 ultimately had more ACE than 2020. As for 2022, it will likely have a bigger ceiling than 2017, but I am not so sure about 2020. However, "ceiling" does not equate to actual activity. 2010 actually had the highest ceiling of any recent season, but its ACE was only 6 above the hyperactive threshold; so one season can have a higher "ceiling" than another but be less active.

Does PDO really matter that much in terms of ceiling? We've seen hyperactive seasons in both +PDO and -PDO regimes.

Yeah, some of the most active seasons there are +PDOs, but usually with -PMMs that keep the EPAC quiet

[AutoPenalti]

Still active.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1521134917345693696

[Category5Kaiju]

Still active.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1521134917345693696

Unlike last year, iirc, that forecast explicitly shows sinking air over the EPAC while last year there was a small rising cell. Yeah, not a cool sign. If La Nina does not change as Ben says, then this could really charge the Atlantic basin.

[skyline385]

Still active.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1521134917345693696

The rising air should help tropical waves coming out of Africa but to me it seems we have positive VP over the Atlantic which shouldn't be aiding cyclonogenesis at all unless i am not looking at this right.

[NotSparta]

Still active.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1521134917345693696

The rising air should help tropical waves coming out of Africa but to me it seems we have positive VP over the Atlantic which shouldn't be aiding cyclonogenesis at all unless i am not looking at this right.

A little counterintuitive but a hyperactive season actually typically features negative VP only really over the eastern Atlantic and Africa. That sort of circulation reduces shear and allows storms to get going more easily in the MDR. Same sort of thing is why El Niño years are active in the WPAC

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1521147337892151298

[wxman57]

A little counterintuitive but a hyperactive season actually typically features negative VP only really over the eastern Atlantic and Africa. That sort of circulation reduces shear and allows storms to get going more easily in the MDR. Same sort of thing is why El Niño years are active in the WPAC

Ah, now that you've mentioned the WPAC, I wonder if any of you here knows a link to a WPAC typhoon season forecast? Nothing at TSR yet. I've been directed to come up with a typhoon season forecast for our WPAC clients, and I'm really not sure what to look at for that basin. I know that the Indian Ocean Dipole comes into play. In the grand scheme of things, the seasonal forecast is only a curiosity. Can't really take specific actions based upon the forecast.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1292126380319289346




Bringing this 2-year-old tweet back just to show the vague similarity.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1521194421840142337

[Category5Kaiju]

Alright, so it looks like MDR westerlies will continue well into mid-May, with some strong westerlies even beginning to manifest in the WCAR by then as well.

Also, as a sidenote, but my sincere apologies; I realized that I have a habit of not uploading images onto Imgur and as a result images such as sst anomalies that I have posted in the past changed. Will be sure to try not to do that again lol

[zzh]

AO will likely be positive for a long time, that's going to keep NAO positive.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1521837799124701187

[AlphaToOmega]

OISST refusing to update (not updated on Climate Reanalyzer either)