Texas Spring 2022

[Brent]

Squall line moving in here. Tons of lightning. Doesn't seem overly severe from the reports though

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR drives the line through DFW late tonight.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022050223/016/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

[South Texas Storms]

Not looking forward to the first big heat wave of the year this weekend. Probably looking at many areas getting close to 100 already...in early May. Ugh.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest HRRR drives the line through DFW late tonight.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022050223/016/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Yeah the hrrr shows conditions that aren’t all that bad for maintaining the line. CIN is high, but cape is still 1000-1500 and srh is like 300 in the metro when it moves through between 12 and 2am. Could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts/pocket change hail

[bubba hotep]

[ElectricStorm]

Really glad the crashing cold front helped limit the overall tornado potential today. Looks like there were a few weak tornadoes over rural areas earlier with the Seminole storm the only one that looked strong. I'm guessing that one will be EF2+ but we'll have to see what the survey finds.

From a local standpoint however this was a pretty big overperformance. Solid storm this morning followed by the tornadic supercell passing just south of me but still getting some rain from it and then a fantastic squall line to finish it off. Could have done without the tor warning, but it's not very often you get 3 rounds of solid storms in one day. Chasers will probably see today as a pretty big disappointment but besides the damage near Seminole (hopefully it's not that bad) this was a pretty solid event for me.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Mon May 02 2022

Areas affected...much of Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, north
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030253Z - 030853Z

Summary...An elongated MCS will overspread heavy rain across the
discussion area. Flash flooding is possible in the most
hydrologically sensitive areas and near localized training of
cells.

Discussion...Convection across Oklahoma has evolved into a couple
of fairly extensive linear segments this evening - one extending
from near McAllister, OK to Wichita Falls, TX and another from
Okmulgee to Stilwell, OK. The initial band was propagating
quickly southward toward the Red River and north Texas (around 25
knots) while producing occasional rain rates exceeding 1-1.5
inch/hour at times. The second band has taken on a bit more
east-west orientation with more backbuilding, enabling areas of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates and greater MRMS Flash responses
south/southwest of Tulsa. Additional, open-warm-sector initiation
was located just southeast of Fort Smith, AR.

The overall forward progression of convection in the discussion
area is suggestive of only a localized flash flood risk through
09Z - especially near the Red River and into north Texas where
storm motions are relatively fast. The storms will traverse areas
that received 1-4 inches of rainfall last night, however,
suggesting that low-lying and/or urbanized areas may experience
excessive runoff due to wet soils.

The area of somewhat greater concern exists across western
Arkansas and adjacent areas of eastern Oklahoma. Here, the
overall setup appears to support a greater risk of repeating
and/or training storms given the MCS orientation south of Tulsa
and warm-sector initiation near Fort Smith. Additionally, ground
conditions are a bit more sensitive owing to hillier terrain and
areas of 1-3 inch rainfall totals that have fallen over the past
24 hours or so. The presence of a weak warm front will aid in
convection occasionally developing rotation, which could also
enhance rain rates and further enable localized training.

FFGs areawide are generally in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range, but are
lowest in north-central Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and across
north-central Texas. These values could be exceeded at times -
especially where training and/or repeating is observed. Flash
flooding is possible in a few areas given the aforementioned
scenario.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

[Ntxw]

Hopefully it builds more west. It may clip the northern and eastern counties at current trajectory but for most of us it may pass or fade. Outflow ahead of it gives concern it may weaken fast.

[Cpv17]

Not looking forward to the first big heat wave of the year this weekend. Probably looking at many areas getting close to 100 already...in early May. Ugh.

Is the rainy pattern that’s taking place in north Texas/Oklahoma ever going to come down here? Specifically areas south of I-10? I can’t remember the last time we had more than half an inch.

[South Texas Storms]

Not looking forward to the first big heat wave of the year this weekend. Probably looking at many areas getting close to 100 already...in early May. Ugh.

Is the rainy pattern that’s taking place in north Texas/Oklahoma ever going to come down here? Specifically areas south of I-10? I can’t remember the last time we had more than half an inch.

Unfortunately I'm not seeing any big signs of that happening anytime soon. More likely we'll see the hot and dry conditions expand northward into north Texas and Oklahoma later this month.

[Haris]

Good rains across the metroplex

[gpsnowman]

Good rains across the metroplex

Yes another solid round of rain. I'll take rain any time but man I miss daytime storms.

[WacoWx]

1.32" IMBY. The Lightning and thunder was more intense this round than the night before. Should be very green here in Dallas today.

[rwfromkansas]

Another half inch so up an inch over a few days. Good stuff.

[cstrunk]

1.53" of rain in Longview! Glad to see north and east Texas getting some good rain.

[wxman57]

Not looking forward to the first big heat wave of the year this weekend. Probably looking at many areas getting close to 100 already...in early May. Ugh.

Is the rainy pattern that’s taking place in north Texas/Oklahoma ever going to come down here? Specifically areas south of I-10? I can’t remember the last time we had more than half an inch.

Unfortunately I'm not seeing any big signs of that happening anytime soon. More likely we'll see the hot and dry conditions expand northward into north Texas and Oklahoma later this month.

Ah, pleasant late July weather in early May! I finally might get a chance to thaw out this weekend and next week. The hot/dry weather across Texas, should it continue into the summer, may be good as far as the hurricane threat. Might shift that threat farther east.

[Ntxw]

Is the rainy pattern that’s taking place in north Texas/Oklahoma ever going to come down here? Specifically areas south of I-10? I can’t remember the last time we had more than half an inch.

Unfortunately I'm not seeing any big signs of that happening anytime soon. More likely we'll see the hot and dry conditions expand northward into north Texas and Oklahoma later this month.

Ah, pleasant late July weather in early May! I finally might get a chance to thaw out this weekend and next week. The hot/dry weather across Texas, should it continue into the summer, may be good as far as the hurricane threat. Might shift that threat farther east.

Forecast looks like well into the 90s for everybody most of next week. 100F widespread possible west of I-35. Your kind of weather sir.

Enjoying my last bit of arctic air this morning 54F at DFW.

[Brent]

Unfortunately I'm not seeing any big signs of that happening anytime soon. More likely we'll see the hot and dry conditions expand northward into north Texas and Oklahoma later this month.

Ah, pleasant late July weather in early May! I finally might get a chance to thaw out this weekend and next week. The hot/dry weather across Texas, should it continue into the summer, may be good as far as the hurricane threat. Might shift that threat farther east.

Forecast looks like well into the 90s for everybody most of next week. 100F widespread possible west of I-35. Your kind of weather sir.

Enjoying my last bit of arctic air this morning 54F at DFW.

Wind chill of 44 here

Not seeing a huge severe day tomorrow but it looks like a lot more heavy rain

Sunday may push 90. We have not been remotely close yet

[ElectricStorm]

Ah, pleasant late July weather in early May! I finally might get a chance to thaw out this weekend and next week. The hot/dry weather across Texas, should it continue into the summer, may be good as far as the hurricane threat. Might shift that threat farther east.

Forecast looks like well into the 90s for everybody most of next week. 100F widespread possible west of I-35. Your kind of weather sir.

Enjoying my last bit of arctic air this morning 54F at DFW.

Wind chill of 44 here

Not seeing a huge severe day tomorrow but it looks like a lot more heavy rain

Sunday may push 90. We have not been remotely close yet

Yeah I agree OK looks like a slop-fest tomorrow. NW TX might see a decent severe event though, and maybe parts of SW OK but I think that enhanced risk will be moved a bit south.

[DallasAg]

1.23" over the last 2 days IMBY (.44" + .79"). Total for the last 31 days has been 4.07" - basically just keeping up with climatology for April/May. Not closing the deficit but at least keeping it from getting worse, which I guess in the current mode is about as good as we can hope.