Texas Spring 2022

[Cpv17]

1.23" over the last 2 days IMBY (.44" + .79"). Total for the last 31 days has been 4.07" - basically just keeping up with climatology for April/May. Not closing the deficit but at least keeping it from getting worse, which I guess in the current mode is about as good as we can hope.

Heck that’s a whole lot better than what I’m getting down here. I’ve only had .3 in the last 4 weeks.

[Ntxw]

As we like to call it "cockroach ridge of death" pays a visit next week. Core of the 500mb will center itself in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. As hot as this weekend may be, sometime next week the forecast may go higher as the ridge begins to flex.

100-105+ in the drought areas to the west.


>594dm

[Brent]

Flood watch here NWS has up to 6 inches nearby

[South Texas Storms]

As we like to call it "cockroach ridge of death" pays a visit next week. Core of the 500mb will center itself in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. As hot as this weekend may be, sometime next week the forecast may go higher as the ridge begins to flex.

100-105+ in the drought areas to the west.


>594dm
https://i.imgur.com/otGucWd.gif

What's really frustrating about this and the upcoming horrible weather that's coming with it is that the ensembles were in agreement a few days ago that it would be a short lived heat wave this weekend. Now the models keep the trough over the West Coast instead of the Plains which would've been a nice wet pattern for us next week. I should've known it was too good to be true with the super high SOI values and La Nina strengthening again. Ugh.

[Ntxw]

As we like to call it "cockroach ridge of death" pays a visit next week. Core of the 500mb will center itself in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. As hot as this weekend may be, sometime next week the forecast may go higher as the ridge begins to flex.

100-105+ in the drought areas to the west.


>594dm
https://i.imgur.com/otGucWd.gif

What's really frustrating about this and the upcoming horrible weather that's coming with it is that the ensembles were in agreement a few days ago that it would be a short lived heat wave this weekend. Now the models keep the trough over the West Coast instead of the Plains which would've been a nice wet pattern for us next week. I should've known it was too good to be true with the super high SOI values and La Nina strengthening again. Ugh.

Yeah that's been the fear is that ridging starts to gear towards where the path of least resistance is. And that's what makes hot years notable, what starts as an every day upper level ridge lasts longer and upscales over the arid terrain. May isn't a stranger to hot 90+ weather, but a lasting period is unusual. North Texas and Oklahoma so far is spared due to the northward movement of PVa, eventually seasonal trends takes it so far north we get into the summer regime. Some years earlier some later. We need a regional weakness to keep that in check, otherwise the hot regime will start sooner.

DFW has a shot at record highs almost every day next week.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR looking much less messy than earlier. If this continues there's probably gonna be a 15 hatched

[Brent]

:eek:
0z HRRR looking much less messy than earlier. If this continues there's probably gonna be a 15 hatched
https://i.imgur.com/aYSXQxS.png

Yeah the news mentioned that run earlier but did say it was the extreme solution for the area. Massive uncertainty tomorrow for sure

I think the big question is how much does it rain in the morning and does it clear out in the afternoon at all. We're gonna have to significantly warm up probably

[869MB]

The following tweet is a good synopsis of the large-scale weather pattern responsible for amplifying the ridge over the southern plains including TX and Northern MX. We needed that wave train to shift a little further east with the western US trough digging further south and east closer to Texas. As depicted below, the mass upper air divergence created by the trough is forecasted to be centered over the Northern/Central Plains and Mid-West.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1521657097426976770

[ElectricStorm]

After that crazy HRRR run last night, looks like it's back to showing less of a threat as expected. The entire eastern half of the 10 hatched will probably be dealing with convection/cloud cover issues for most of if not all of the day. HRRR has shifted towards bringing the main line in a few hours later than earlier runs now which looks like a wind threat but not much tornado threat for C OK. Overall I'd say the best chance for a tornado is in NW TX and maybe SW OK if something can form in the warm sector.

The flooding threat across OK will be the much bigger deal than the severe threat, with up to 6 inches possible on top of everything we just got Monday it could get ugly out there.

[Brent]

After that crazy HRRR run last night, looks like it's back to showing less of a threat as expected. The entire eastern half of the 10 hatched will probably be dealing with convection/cloud cover issues for most of if not all of the day. HRRR has shifted towards bringing the main line in a few hours later than earlier runs now which looks like a wind threat but not much tornado threat for C OK. Overall I'd say the best chance for a tornado is in NW TX and maybe SW OK if something can form in the warm sector.

The flooding threat across OK will be the much bigger deal than the severe threat, with up to 6 inches possible on top of everything we just got Monday it could get ugly out there.

.
.
Already storming like crazy here. Gonna be a long event

And just popped a severe for quarter sized hail

[WacoWx]

Is there any way I get to tee off at 8:30a in Arlington tomorrow? I am not seeing any scenarios where the atmosphere is worked over enough for this to not be a complete washout.

[ElectricStorm]

Can't post right now but 13z HRRR... Wow. Looking pretty nasty. It keeps going back and forth so we'll see what happens
I still have doubts about warm front placement but I'd be surprised not to see a 15 hatched at some point today for the western parts of the current 10 hatched area

[Brent]

Can't post right now but 13z HRRR... Wow. Looking pretty nasty. It keeps going back and forth so we'll see what happens
I still have doubts about warm front placement but I'd be surprised not to see a 15 hatched at some point today for the western parts of the current 10 hatched area

Trying to show a supercell getting close to me. I dunno if I believe that. Back to the SW is my concern

[cheezyWXguy]

Can't post right now but 13z HRRR... Wow. Looking pretty nasty. It keeps going back and forth so we'll see what happens
I still have doubts about warm front placement but I'd be surprised not to see a 15 hatched at some point today for the western parts of the current 10 hatched area

I noticed that run too. Haven’t seen Ice on here lately, but there’s a pretty big supercell going over his area on that run

[Brent]

Can't post right now but 13z HRRR... Wow. Looking pretty nasty. It keeps going back and forth so we'll see what happens
I still have doubts about warm front placement but I'd be surprised not to see a 15 hatched at some point today for the western parts of the current 10 hatched area

I noticed that run too. Haven’t seen Ice on here lately, but there’s a pretty big supercell going over his area on that run

Hes out of town I think. That Seminole tornado on Monday wasnt too far away

[cheezyWXguy]

Another thing I’m noticing is that the HRRR is starting to drag supercell coverage down into the dfw area as well. Might need to drag the slight risk line south of i20 if trends continue.

[Ntxw]

Another thing I’m noticing is that the HRRR is starting to drag supercell coverage down into the dfw area as well. Might need to drag the slight risk line south of i20 if trends continue.

Timing would be pretty good. The warm front boundary is going to help sustain some activity even down this way. While not a huge day per say but has a good chance to overperform. NW Texas is primed and areas in North Texas are too if storms can fire.

[cheezyWXguy]

The automated Nadocast index seems to agree with the idea of increasing tornado probs and expanding them southward



Note: this is not an SPC product, but the color scheme is intended to match it

[gpsnowman]

Mostly sunny here with a quick increase in temp and humidity. Any hint of cool air is gone.

[Ntxw]

Mostly sunny here with a quick increase in temp and humidity. Any hint of cool air is gone.

Very rich dewpoints. A lot of energy.