Texas Spring 2022

[starsfan65]

Mostly sunny here with a quick increase in temp and humidity. Any hint of cool air is gone.

Very rich dewpoints. A lot of energy.

https://i.imgur.com/WJFwVri.png

The 70 degree dewpoints are moving North.

[ElectricStorm]

The automated Nadocast index seems to agree with the idea of increasing tornado probs and expanding them southward

[url]https://i.ibb.co/DC92Bgt/68-F994-D3-6-DB2-455-F-BBDA-209-E93-A130-F5.jpg [/url]

Note: this is not an SPC product, but the color scheme is intended to match it

Their newest one went down a bit but increased for the western areas.
[Tweet]https://mobile.twitter.com/nadocast/status/1521824499280367619?cxt=HHwWhsC-obbUzZ4qAAAA[/Tweet]

That being said I think it will increase again. I don't know what models this is based on but some models were showing more morning convection moving through behind the first round and that didn't happen.

EDIT: Apparently I can't make it show up on mobile

[cheezyWXguy]

The automated Nadocast index seems to agree with the idea of increasing tornado probs and expanding them southward

[url]https://i.ibb.co/DC92Bgt/68-F994-D3-6-DB2-455-F-BBDA-209-E93-A130-F5.jpg [/url]

Note: this is not an SPC product, but the color scheme is intended to match it

Their newest one went down a bit but increased for the western areas.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nadocast/status/1521824499280367619?cxt=HHwWhsC-obbUzZ4qAAAA

That being said I think it will increase again. I don't know what models this is based on but some models were showing more morning convection moving through behind the first round and that didn't happen.

EDIT: Apparently I can't make it show up on mobile

Ah, yeah I missed that one at 10z. I think you’re right that it’ll increase again though, since it was released to early to catch the 13z and 14z HRRRs

Also, looks like it uses the HRRR, SREF, HREF, and RAP

[ElectricStorm]

Moderate risk is up pretty much right where I expected it. Might see it expanded east a bit if model trends continue

[Quixotic]

Cape in the 2k - 3k range already.

[Iceresistance]

The Summer Cockroach Death Ridge may not last long in May.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1521847535358390275

[captainbarbossa19]

Glad folks up in north Texas are getting rain, but I am ready for this spring to be over already weather-wise. The forecast for my area just looks dire. After the maybe rain tomorrow, it's going to be very hot and dry. Drought conditions are really getting serious down here.

[rwfromkansas]

I will believe the MJO when it stays for awhile.

[Ntxw]

The Summer Cockroach Death Ridge may not last long in May.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1521847535358390275?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

[HockeyTx82]

Tornado Watch just went up.

NW Texas into SW OK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0176.html

[HockeyTx82]

Sounds like the cap may hold on, maybe not. Buckle up

[South Texas Storms]

The Summer Cockroach Death Ridge may not last long in May.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1521847535358390275?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

Yeah it's gonna suck baking in early May. Typically one of our wettest times of the year and who knows when it will rain again after tomorrow. The drought is going to get much worse I'm afraid.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not looking fun up this way this afternoon into tonight..

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, the GFS keeps us in the 90s through the end of the run, which means likely some days will be much hotter than currently progged based on history. Ugh. I just brought a strawberry hanging basket back from Kansas since it was supposed to be good for Texas and is good with heat, but I don't think going from 70 to 95+ for weeks is probably good. Lol.

[Ntxw]

The Summer Cockroach Death Ridge may not last long in May.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1521847535358390275?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

Yeah it's gonna suck baking in early May. Typically one of our wettest times of the year and who knows when it will rain again after tomorrow. The drought is going to get much worse I'm afraid.

Yeah I don't see much improvement. The 90s+ near record heat is going to last at least the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow is the last coolish day, perhaps forever...just kidding...maybe until September.

[Haris]

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

Yeah it's gonna suck baking in early May. Typically one of our wettest times of the year and who knows when it will rain again after tomorrow. The drought is going to get much worse I'm afraid.

Yeah I don't see much improvement. The 90s+ near record heat is going to last at least the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow is the last coolish day, perhaps forever...just kidding...maybe until September.

The couple inches this week across NTX will help knock it to D0 or D1 but its localized and maybe temporary

[gpsnowman]

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

Yeah it's gonna suck baking in early May. Typically one of our wettest times of the year and who knows when it will rain again after tomorrow. The drought is going to get much worse I'm afraid.

Yeah I don't see much improvement. The 90s+ near record heat is going to last at least the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow is the last coolish day, perhaps forever...just kidding...maybe until September.

September is forever when it comes to heat. That's it, the talk of moving to a cooler climate has begun!!

[ElectricStorm]

[Brent]

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

[HockeyTx82]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/tqQgfq1/FR8-BRy-EVk-AA7v90.jpg

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

That escalated quickly. How does SPC blow a moderate this close to go time? Now people are going to panic last minute