Texas Spring 2022

[ElectricStorm]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/tqQgfq1/FR8-BRy-EVk-AA7v90.jpg

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

That escalated quickly. How does SPC blow a moderate this close to go time? Now people are going to panic last minute

Bruh they didn't blow it, 1) There was way too much uncertainty between warm front placement and morning convection. Most of the CAMs except HRRR had a second round of morning convection but it never materialized so now the warm sector is wide open for supercell development as well as the cells that form in TX moving in. 2) They've literally had an enhanced risk up since Day 4 and a slight since Day 6 so people should be prepared

[HockeyTx82]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/tqQgfq1/FR8-BRy-EVk-AA7v90.jpg

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

That escalated quickly. How does SPC blow a moderate this close to go time? Now people are going to panic last minute

Bruh they didn't blow it, 1) There was way too much uncertainty between warm front placement and morning convection. Most of the CAMs except HRRR had a second round of morning convection but it never materialized so now the warm sector is wide open for supercell development as well as the cells that form in TX moving in. 2) They've literally had an enhanced risk up since Day 4 and a slight since Day 6 so people should be prepared

Oh I know. We know that but most of the public is reactionary. I guess had they gone the other way and nothing then people gripe. Spring time in the plains.

I just wish they could have gone moderate this AM, made it conditional in the notes, so word gets out.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Ntxw]

One thing though, it has been slow to fire things off. That can change quickly but thought we'd see more by now nearing peak hours.

[Iceresistance]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/tqQgfq1/FR8-BRy-EVk-AA7v90.jpg

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

That escalated quickly. How does SPC blow a moderate this close to go time? Now people are going to panic last minute

There was too much uncertainty on the mesoscale models concerning a 2nd wave of Storms to materialize. (The HRRR did not do that feature, which turned out to be the right one)

With the 2nd wave likely a bust, this will open the floodgates for very high instability for Supercell development.

[Iceresistance]

This is actually not a good thing for us. If it reinforces the weakness on the Southeast US coast (more impacts there) we actually sit in subsidence only to lock it in place. It's a death trap that only holds the ridge over the South-Central states. GEFS does just that, holds it there and fades.

This is a connecting reason why it gets so hot next week. Trough on the coasts west and southeast, we fry.

Yeah it's gonna suck baking in early May. Typically one of our wettest times of the year and who knows when it will rain again after tomorrow. The drought is going to get much worse I'm afraid.

Yeah I don't see much improvement. The 90s+ near record heat is going to last at least the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow is the last coolish day, perhaps forever...just kidding...maybe until September.

I take that back on the improvement, there's a slight risk for excessive heat for the Eastern Half of Texas next week.

[HockeyTx82]

One thing though, it has been slow to fire things off. That can change quickly but thought we'd see more by now nearing peak hours.

Last HRRR run I looked at keeps most of NTX in the clear and nothing.

Earlier runs had some big ones over Denton County.

Is there a cap holding on?

At 08z has a line forming in far west Texas.....

[Brent]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/tqQgfq1/FR8-BRy-EVk-AA7v90.jpg

Meanwhile here I'm much more concerned about flooding although the tornado threat isn't completely zero. Still pretty cool and stable though already had a lot of rain

That escalated quickly. How does SPC blow a moderate this close to go time? Now people are going to panic last minute

Bruh they didn't blow it, 1) There was way too much uncertainty between warm front placement and morning convection. Most of the CAMs except HRRR had a second round of morning convection but it never materialized so now the warm sector is wide open for supercell development as well as the cells that form in TX moving in. 2) They've literally had an enhanced risk up since Day 4 and a slight since Day 6 so people should be prepared

It's also May. It's peak time of year nobody should be surprised or not expecting this. Heck yesterday was just the anniversary of the 1999 Moore tornado

[HockeyTx82]

Storm just SW of Abilene. Here we go

[Ntxw]

One thing though, it has been slow to fire things off. That can change quickly but thought we'd see more by now nearing peak hours.

Last HRRR run I looked at keeps most of NTX in the clear and nothing.

Earlier runs had some big ones over Denton County.

Is there a cap holding on?

At 08z has a line forming in far west Texas.....

Slower timing of lift. The model runs with good t-storm development is faster and more vigorous with lift, slower of the latest runs.

There's good probably of a line late tonight into tomorrow morning. I need .20" at least to beat the top end of this week's 1" to 1.5" guess qpf. DFW has 1.31" so far.

[ElectricStorm]

19z HRRR says we're still an hour or two before the big stuff fully gets going in NW Texas. Storms in OK should start going up by 4 and getting mature by 5. Not seeing much out there now but we'll have to watch it. 18z OUN sounding had a pretty stable boundary layer but dewpoints are higher now so this will be interesting. We'll probably get the leftovers of the Texas cells here in C OK but it would help with lowering the tornado threat if we didn't see any warm sector supercells.

EDIT: Literally as soon as I type this some activity starts showing up on radar lol

[HockeyTx82]

One thing though, it has been slow to fire things off. That can change quickly but thought we'd see more by now nearing peak hours.

Last HRRR run I looked at keeps most of NTX in the clear and nothing.

Earlier runs had some big ones over Denton County.

Is there a cap holding on?

At 08z has a line forming in far west Texas.....

Slower timing of lift. The model runs with good t-storm development is faster and more vigorous with lift, slower of the latest runs.

There's good probably of a line late tonight into tomorrow morning. I need .20" at least to beat the top end of this week's 1" to 1.5" guess qpf. DFW has 1.31" so far.

So what are you saying? Sorry, not sure how to read your reply about lift. Storms or no storms for DFW this afternoon?

[Ntxw]

Last HRRR run I looked at keeps most of NTX in the clear and nothing.

Earlier runs had some big ones over Denton County.

Is there a cap holding on?

At 08z has a line forming in far west Texas.....

Slower timing of lift. The model runs with good t-storm development is faster and more vigorous with lift, slower of the latest runs.

There's good probably of a line late tonight into tomorrow morning. I need .20" at least to beat the top end of this week's 1" to 1.5" guess qpf. DFW has 1.31" so far.

So what are you saying? Sorry, not sure how to read your reply about lift. Storms or no storms for DFW this afternoon?

Cap 18z FW sounding. Without the better upper lift it's harder to break the cap. Probably not for DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

So what's the lack of coverage all about everywhere else
Heck a strom in thr panhandle just fell apart.

Not complaining, just wondering.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://twitter.com/WxLiz/status/1521968173590925313

[Ntxw]

So what's the lack of coverage all about everywhere else
Heck a strom in thr panhandle just fell apart.

Not complaining, just wondering.

It ran too far north away from the warm front into more stable conditions. There's an area from Lubbock to NW Texas where best lift + good conditions the next few hours to grow. Further south and east (NTX region and slightly to the west) forcing is weak as noted with lift issues to break the cap fully. N of the warm front in Oklahoma is relatively more stable for now.

So generally NW Texas into Far SW Oklahoma is where the ingredients is best.

On the flip side there's an outbreak going on in Mexico across the Rio Grande with huge supercells! This area seemingly has an outbreak every few days, highly underrated severe weather capital of Mexico.

[ElectricStorm]

Weak multi vortex tornado on the ground near Maud, OK. Storm south of me has a large wall cloud on news 9

[Ntxw]

Looks like Seminole, Oklahoma is in direct path if something is on the ground.

[bubba hotep]

Cell going up in SE Tarrant County. Tower just popped through the overhead cirrus that is streaming in from the west.

[bubba hotep]

Nasty looking cell SW of Vernon, TX

[Ntxw]

Cell going up in SE Tarrant County. Tower just popped through the overhead cirrus that is streaming in from the west.

Looks like a quick rain burst in the mid cities and airport coming in. The northern counties may want to keep on eye on this one if they hold up.