Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...Western Pacific

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like the Phillipines may be under the gun in the coming days!

WTPN21 PGTW 112030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112021Z NOV 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N2 140.2E7 TO 13.9N3
132.3E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MET­
SAT IMAGERY AT 112000Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.4N6 139.4E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTH­
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCU­
LATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPIRAL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. MIN­
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 122030Z8.//

NNNN

[Anonymous]

Should move right over the Philippines...further intensification is possible once in the SCS.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Something to watch indeed!

[Anonymous]

Further intensification in the SCS now being forecasted by the JTWC as expected.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/a ... 111318.gif