2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Iceresistance]

I'm surprised that no one has noticed how fast the Atlantic MDR warmed, it's +0.5°C warmer compared to Mid-April!

What do you mean? When it was still warming that's all everyone was talking about lol

I've not seen recent posts on how fast it warmed compared to 1/2 month ago.

[mixedDanilo.E]

MDR prob gonna start warming back up again as trades reduce a second time and it’s ongoing rn - prob next few days we should notice it. Idk abt the euros forecast for very weak WAM cuz it seems like the typical bias to me.

[Category5Kaiju]

While there's quite a bit of talk now about the sst anomalies and how those will look going into this season (quite understandably as well), I personally am actually more curious to see how the -ENSO state and the weakened subtropical warm pool would impact this season's potential. 2022, unlike the past 6 years (at least for the Atlantic) seems to have the likelihood of having two notable advantages (if you want to term such that): a La Nina base state that is firmly entrenched as the season begins, and a decently cool subtropical warm pool, which greatly weakened recently. Assuming the subtropical pool remains below average in sst anomalies and this La Nina remains (at least) moderate or weak, I genuinely wonder if those factors could hypothetically hold some power in "overriding" sst anomalies that are not as impressive as seasons like 2017 or 2020, for instance, and allow this season to have a relatively high ceiling. I understand how MDR sst anomalies grab most of the attention from us tropical enthusiasts, but I also think it's important to consider what non sst anomaly-related "advantages" this season *could* potentially have that other recent seasons did not have.

[mixedDanilo.E]

While there's quite a bit of talk now about the sst anomalies and how those will look going into this season (quite understandably as well), I personally am actually more curious to see how the -ENSO state and the weakened subtropical warm pool would impact this season's potential. 2022, unlike the past 6 years (at least for the Atlantic) seems to have the likelihood of having two notable advantages (if you want to term such that): a La Nina base state that is firmly entrenched as the season begins, and a decently cool subtropical warm pool, which greatly weakened recently. Assuming the subtropical pool remains below average in sst anomalies and this La Nina remains (at least) moderate or weak, I genuinely wonder if those factors could hypothetically hold some power in "overriding" sst anomalies that are not as impressive as seasons like 2017 or 2020, for instance, and allow this season to have a relatively high ceiling. I understand how MDR sst anomalies grab most of the attention from us tropical enthusiasts, but I also think it's important to consider what non sst anomaly-related "advantages" this season *could* potentially have that other recent seasons did not have.

Tbh I agree - we got still a very impressive +AMO signature rn that we haven’t seen this good in a while and given we are deep into a La Niña and the last time I checked the WAM is very charged up this year - well see how things go bc that might super charge the Atlantic in its own way this year.

[NotSparta]

While there's quite a bit of talk now about the sst anomalies and how those will look going into this season (quite understandably as well), I personally am actually more curious to see how the -ENSO state and the weakened subtropical warm pool would impact this season's potential. 2022, unlike the past 6 years (at least for the Atlantic) seems to have the likelihood of having two notable advantages (if you want to term such that): a La Nina base state that is firmly entrenched as the season begins, and a decently cool subtropical warm pool, which greatly weakened recently. Assuming the subtropical pool remains below average in sst anomalies and this La Nina remains (at least) moderate or weak, I genuinely wonder if those factors could hypothetically hold some power in "overriding" sst anomalies that are not as impressive as seasons like 2017 or 2020, for instance, and allow this season to have a relatively high ceiling. I understand how MDR sst anomalies grab most of the attention from us tropical enthusiasts, but I also think it's important to consider what non sst anomaly-related "advantages" this season *could* potentially have that other recent seasons did not have.

The subtropical warm pool isn't quite gone, but yeah it is weaker. We'll see if it can go actually below average. MDR definitely not looking so hot but the new round of weak trades will probably help with that somewhat

[weeniepatrol]

ACE is more strongly correlated with the robust +AMO horseshoe now present than the near-average ssts in the MDR

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1266107330417979392

[jconsor]

ECMWF seasonal forecast needs to be put into context of its biases and past forecasts.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1522543202590470144

[hurricaneCW]

The wet anomalies along the east coast are alarming.

Last season there was record flooding in the Mid-Atlantic but this year the Euro shows an even wetter anomaly. Maybe a lot of home-brew storms in the gulf/Bahamas.

[Category5Kaiju]

ECMWF seasonal forecast needs to be put into context of its biases and past forecasts.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1522543202590470144

Ok...wow. It's one thing to just look at 2022's anomaly map and predict that the ECMWF is less bullish and that a less active than anticipated season is going to happen, but compared to 2017-2021, it's quite remarkable that this year has one of the strongest, if not the strongest, wet anomaly signatures in the Caribbean Sea. Not to mention this seems like the first year since 2017 that the ECMWF showed near normal precip (with some slightly below average), while the rest of the years had conspicuous brown spots in the MDR. If this map pans out, I wonder if the ECMWF is trying to suggest that we could see much more intense Caribbean activity than recent years have featured (remote possibility involving the return of Caribbean cruisers)? Either way, now that I have a comparison with other years, it is quite clear than this year's forecast is probably the least MDR-hostile. Maybe CV season isn't so done after all

[SFLcane]

ECMWF seasonal forecast needs to be put into context of its biases and past forecasts.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1522543202590470144

Its probably wrong with its seasonal numbers! Interesting

[crownweather]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[skyline385]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Even if it is a very active season, i don't think any of those storms shown on the CFS should be taken seriously. This is 3 months down the line, might as well toss a coin to predict storm formation.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Well the CFS is showing a very favorable VP config that month so I suppose it wouldn't be surprising if July ultimately ends up busier than usual. Obviously cannot put too much stock into those exact scenarios panning out because, well, it's ultra-long range, but I'm talking in a general sense.

[aspen]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I remember that the CFS did a good job at predicting long-range activity in 2020 and 2021 — Isaias and Ida, an active late-season Caribbean in 2020, multiple inactive phases in 2021, etc. If the CFS continues its success into this season, then there is indeed a heightened chance of an active July. I’m a little skeptical not just due to the long-range, but because we haven’t had any significant July long-trackers since Bertha ‘08 (Isaias doesn’t count because it was only a Cat 1 and didn’t become a TC until in the ECar).

[Category5Kaiju]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I remember that the CFS did a good job at predicting long-range activity in 2020 and 2021 — Isaias and Ida, an active late-season Caribbean in 2020, multiple inactive phases in 2021, etc. If the CFS continues its success into this season, then there is indeed a heightened chance of an active July. I’m a little skeptical not just due to the long-range, but because we haven’t had any significant July long-trackers since Bertha ‘08 (Isaias doesn’t count because it was only a Cat 1 and didn’t become a TC until in the ECar).

Not to mention our firmly entrenched La Nina state (which should decrease shear) and some predictions that the Caribbean may see reduced trades during that timeframe. Idk, something tells me that the CFS may be onto something here, and yes, I do feel that we are overdue for a season with an abnormally busy July as we really have not seen much of that in recent times, but it's not impossible so long as the conditions allow.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I remember that the CFS did a good job at predicting long-range activity in 2020 and 2021 — Isaias and Ida, an active late-season Caribbean in 2020, multiple inactive phases in 2021, etc. If the CFS continues its success into this season, then there is indeed a heightened chance of an active July. I’m a little skeptical not just due to the long-range, but because we haven’t had any significant July long-trackers since Bertha ‘08 (Isaias doesn’t count because it was only a Cat 1 and didn’t become a TC until in the ECar).

Elsa?

[NotSparta]

The extremely long range CFS model, which goes out almost three months, has a very busy look to it from mid-July and beyond. It's most recent run shows 2 important storms - one a MDR storm that passes near the Leeward Islands & VI and then heads towards the E Coast of the US. Second storm is right behind it and it ends up being a Caribbean cruiser.

It should be pointed out, FWIW, that the CFS model has been quite consistent in showing a very active tropics for July.

Link - https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=1908&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I remember that the CFS did a good job at predicting long-range activity in 2020 and 2021 — Isaias and Ida, an active late-season Caribbean in 2020, multiple inactive phases in 2021, etc. If the CFS continues its success into this season, then there is indeed a heightened chance of an active July. I’m a little skeptical not just due to the long-range, but because we haven’t had any significant July long-trackers since Bertha ‘08 (Isaias doesn’t count because it was only a Cat 1 and didn’t become a TC until in the ECar).

Not to mention our firmly entrenched La Nina state (which should decrease shear) and some predictions that the Caribbean may see reduced trades during that timeframe. Idk, something tells me that the CFS may be onto something here, and yes, I do feel that we are overdue for a season with an abnormally busy July as we really have not seen much of that in recent times, but it's not impossible so long as the conditions allow.

I would consider July 2020 to be pretty busy, though there were no long trackers

[cycloneye]

Blend of 2008-2017=More Cabo Verde hurricanes.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608164444721156




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608168454479872

[Category5Kaiju]

Blend of 2008-2017=More Cabo Verde hurricanes.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608164444721156

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608168454479872

The seasons with Ike, Irma, and Maria, as well as strong W Atlantic storms like Harvey, Gustav, and Paloma? Oof, yeah I’ll take a pass on that

[skyline385]

Blend of 2008-2017=More Cabo Verde hurricanes.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608164444721156




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522608168454479872

Going to hard disagree on that post, what similarities is he seeing with the 2008 SST? In 2008, most of the super warm pool was near the African coast including nearly half of the MDR which would obviously support development of CV storms but that's not the case for 2022.

It's even worse for the 2017 comparison where the super warm pool existed between 10N and 20N latitude which is literally the MDR which is not the case for 2022. The warm pool for 2022 is below the MDR and the MDR itself is at average SST. So the comparison with 2017 makes no sense.

Both 2008 and 2017 had very warm MDRs particularly near the African coast which very much supported development of MDR runners but that is literally not the case for 2022.