Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

The SOI index is starting to go down, but don't blame me if I speak too soon!

[cstrunk]

3.15" measured IMBY in Longview from today's storms.

Flight got delayed, but luckily I was able to rebook for tomorrow morning without really impacting my plans much.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman — Damage surveys continue, with EF3 damage found near Lockett, Texas from last night's storm. Metal power poles bent almost down to the ground. EF3 damage near Lockett, with 140 mph winds likely. #texomawx #tornado

[Texas Snowman]

Wedge tornado near Seminole, Oklahoma last night:

@NWSNorman — EF2 Damage has been found in Seminole from last night. Nearly a mile wide multiple vortex tornado occurred, ranging from near Maude to west of Okemah. #okwx #tornado

[Yukon Cornelius]

Too close to me for comfort.

[Iceresistance]

This is why I love watching Pecos Hank, he was there in Texas

[youtube]https://youtu.be/e-C0UFEe_ec[/youtube]

[rwfromkansas]

That forecast is brutal. I expect it in June/July, but May is painful.

[DallasAg]

That forecast is brutal. I expect it in June/July, but May is painful.

Reminding me way too much of 1998, 2006, and 2008 May. At least no 80 degree mornings yet - probably because the humidity has been low thanks partially to the drought.

Heat Advisories raised for areas just to our west. Here. We. Go.

[captainbarbossa19]

While it will be very hot next week, some hope may be on the horizon. The 0z GFS last night showed an ULL moving from the Rockies into western Texas around next weekend. While the GFS dropped it, the 12z Euro now shows it. This tells me that the models are picking up on something. Whether or not it materializes remains to be seen. At the minimum, temperatures should begin to return near climatological norms by next weekend.

[cheezyWXguy]

Please let there be a good MCS season this year

[Ntxw]

While it will be very hot next week, some hope may be on the horizon. The 0z GFS last night showed an ULL moving from the Rockies into western Texas around next weekend. While the GFS dropped it, the 12z Euro now shows it. This tells me that the models are picking up on something. Whether or not it materializes remains to be seen. At the minimum, temperatures should begin to return near climatological norms by next weekend.

I noticed too and hope it is real but might be short lived. Analogs, tropical forcing, and regional conditions suggest another heat wave after next weekend. I'm worried the feedback mechanism is going to get triggered. Long way out though so things can change.

[rwfromkansas]

We left DFW for Abilene this morning for Mother’s Day. Um, nice and cloudy in DFW. Here? 102 already. It likely will far exceed forecast. Maybe 107-109.

[Brent]

Haven't even had one day above 85 here and about to have a weeks worth starting tomorrow

Apparently Amarillo earliest 100 ever by 8 days

[dpep4]

We left DFW for Abilene this morning for Mother’s Day. Um, nice and cloudy in DFW. Here? 102 already. It likely will far exceed forecast. Maybe 107-109.

But at least you've got a very dry 36 dew point. Here in Fort Worth we've skyrocketed from a dp of 62 at dawn to 74 at 3pm.

I'd gladly trade 108 and very dry vs. 94 and sauna. I don't care what the heat index says, I hate being in a veggie steamer. The biggest reason I permanently fled Houston.

[Ntxw]

500mb heights aren't even that high less than 590dm today. This is how you know the drought is amplifying the heat.

[Iceresistance]

Stopping in Ocala for the night, My current location will change per Hotel stop until I've reached back home.

But goodness! 108 just SW of DFW compared to 88 in DFW itself?

[Ntxw]

Stopping in Ocala for the night, My current location will change per Hotel stop until I've reached back home.

But goodness! 108 just SW of DFW compared to 88 in DFW itself?

That area SW of DFW relative to normal is under some of the worst drought conditions in the state.

[Iceresistance]

Joe B is thinking that this Heatwave is not going to last very long . . .

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1522989523373801472

[bubba hotep]

Joe B is thinking that this Heatwave is not going to last very long . . .

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1522989523373801472?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I don't know if I buy that 100% but I do think this will be a somewhat limited heatwave. Also, looking at some analog stuff and early May heatwaves don't really correlate with above normal July/August. That isn't to say we won't have a hot summer but the drivers behind the current pattern don't really roll forward. Maybe it's bad luck and we roast throughout but I still remain skeptical. However, I did call for a below normal temp and above normal precp May

The Euro does see some rain chances over the next week... (remember when you could take the Euro to the bank and not just laugh it off )

[bubba hotep]

There will be some huge CAPE around today but it looks like the convective temp for the DFW area is b/w 102-105F. So it will be hot today but not hot enough