BOB: 02B - ASANI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

92B INVEST 220504 1800 7.8N 94.4E IO 15 1010

Models develop it as a moderate to strong cyclone that may threat Bangladesh or India.

[cycloneye]

[doomhaMwx]

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.05.2022

BAY OF BENGAL:
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORMED OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT
0000 UTC AND LAY OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH MAY 2022.
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE SAME
REGION AROUND 06TH MAY. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST BOB, SOUTHEAST BOB AND
ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH BOB & EASTCENTRAL BOB.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL LOW MODERATE HIGH

[cycloneye]

00z best track.

92B INVEST 220505 0000 8.5N 93.3E IO 15 1010

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOMPAKA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050027 SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B
WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

JTWC did an update but remains low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF PT. BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051322Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT BROAD
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS
AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Slowly trying to begin consolidation.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track. According to models, it may not be very strong on the winds at landfall somewhere in India or Bangladesh but it may dump a lot of rain that may cause massive floodings.

92B INVEST 220506 0000 8.7N 92.7E IO 15 1005

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 93.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 052229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT BROAD
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 061330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 92.8E TO 12.4N 89.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 92.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061016Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS DEEP AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE NASCENT COREOF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, CONSOLIDATE, AND INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071330Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Looks like is on the verge to become a TC.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

92B INVEST 220506 1800 8.4N 92.5E IO 30 1002

[Kingarabian]

Looks like is on the verge to become a TC.

https://i.imgur.com/D8ffUiK.gif

It should be classified a TC already.

[cycloneye]

Looks indeed like a TC and should be classified very shortly.

[Hurricane2021]

No upgrade to Tropical Storm status so far.

Invest 92B
As of 00:00 UTC May 07, 2022:

Location: 9.2°N 91.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: N/A

[Hurricane2021]

 https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1522758140797804544

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Officially, it's still a depression according to IMD. JTWC's predicted 65 intensity appears to be too high.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1522935779869310976

[cycloneye]

15:00z warning:

WTIO31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.4N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.7N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.9N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.9N 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.5N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.0N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.5N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 90.1E.
07MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN