BOB: 02B - ASANI - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the warm spot hasn't been present for a couple of hours now. But no doubt a hurricane.

[doomhaMwx]

06Z JTWC estimate came in at 65kts (category 1), which is also supported by an ASCAT pass from a few hours ago. Asani has probably peaked though as the effects of easterly shear on the system are becoming more pronounced.

02B ASANI 220508 0600 11.7N 88.6E IO 65 981

[cycloneye]

[doomhaMwx]

It's already becoming exposed.

[wxman57]

This is the worse I have seen a agency on classifications. JMA for WPAC is not too stellar but is way better than IMD.

Yes, IMD is often challenged when making intensity estimates. In the WPAC, we were attempting to perform some verifications but JMA's and JTWC's "best track" data was quite far apart in both intensity estimates and position. Each "best track" favored its own agency's forecasts. Of course, one issue with JMA is that is only considers 10-min winds. The other issue is JMA's use of the Koba scale for classification, which results in a much lower intensity estimate. South of the Equator, BoM requires tropical storm-force winds to extend more than half way around the center for an upgrade. I believe they also use 2-min or 3-min winds.

Each basin has a different classification method. NHC is, by far, the most "lenient" in granting a name for a weak system. The IMD is on the opposite end of the scale.

Given that convection near the center has dissipated, Asani has definitely weakened. Maybe 50-55 kts now.

[cycloneye]

Down to 55kt at 00z best track.

02B ASANI 220509 0000 14.0N 86.1E IO 55 988

[doomhaMwx]

02B ASANI 220510 0600 14.9N 82.3E IO 65 977

Though Asani is obviously feeling the impacts of unfavorable shear, it has actually been faring better than expected these past few days. JTWC's 65kt (cat 1) estimate appears to be too generous though, judging from a new MW pass just after the estimate was made.

[cycloneye]

Close to making landfall in eastern India and the main hazard will be the copious rains that will cause flooding and mudslides.

[cycloneye]

Effects being felt in India. Look at the zinc flying.

 https://twitter.com/HavaForum/status/1523972768714399745

[shah83]

The CMC takes the trophy for this storm...