2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.

On cyclonicwx the SST maps still have not updated from May 6 (at least for OISSTv2, which I use).

The OISSTv2 does say that MDR SSTAs were 0.3 C above-average on May 6, though.

For some reason lately OISST has not been updating as much lately. Coral Reef Watch data is still transmitting normally though

[Yellow Evan]

Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes

Yes but it’s important because cool or warm SST anomalies are less favorable or more atmospheric conditions because the ocean and atmosphere are coupled.

[Kingarabian]

90 day CFS has been consistent in showing a moderate/strong WWB over the MDR and ECaribb during the last week of May and throughout June.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.

Stronger trades mean stronger wind and cooling for the most part. Trades are weak for now which has allowed for some warming recently

Okay guys, time to pack it up, a -AMO is coming so we’ll only get 10 NS /s

But in all seriousness, MDR SSTAs are fluctuating so much that I’m leaning towards 2022 having a near-average MDR in terms of SSTs like 2021.

[cycloneye]

Andy counters.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434949633712129




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434953408536577




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523451033535467521

[AlphaToOmega]

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.

Stronger trades mean stronger wind and cooling for the most part. Trades are weak for now which has allowed for some warming recently

Okay guys, time to pack it up, a -AMO is coming so we’ll only get 10 NS /s

But in all seriousness, MDR SSTAs are fluctuating so much that I’m leaning towards 2022 having a near-average MDR in terms of SSTs like 2021.

Looking at MDR SSTAs for ASO, we find interesting data:

• For 2016, MDR SSTAs were 0.616 C during ASO
• For 2017, MDR SSTAs were 0.697 C during ASO
• For 2018, MDR SSTAs were 0.055 C during ASO
• For 2019, MDR SSTAs were 0.575 C during ASO
• For 2020, MDR SSTAs were 0.702 C during ASO
• For 2021, MDR SSTAs were 0.506 C during ASO

From 2016 onwards, we have been in a strong WAM regime, and from 2016 to 2021, only one season has failed to have MDR SSTAs below 0.5 C during ASO: 2018, which had a -AMM during ASO and an extremely prominent -AMM horseshoe during spring. 2022 is expected to have a +AMM for ASO, so an above-average MDR for ASO is expected.

[zzh]

Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes

Yep... and a coolish Eastern MDR would only delay consolidation and strengthening until the waves are further West= higher chances of land impacts

Keep in mind that MDR SSTA correlates well with the OVERALL season activity, not MDR activity. A warm MDR usually means a busy season and has a higher chance of landfall hurricanes. You can't have big landfall seasons such as 2005, 2017 and 2020 without a warm MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes

Yep... and a coolish Eastern MDR would only delay consolidation and strengthening until the waves are further West= higher chances of land impacts

Keep in mind that MDR SSTA correlates well with the OVERALL season activity, not MDR activity. A warm MDR usually means a busy season and has a higher chance of landfall hurricanes. You can't have big landfall seasons such as 2005, 2017 and 2020 without a warm MDR.

Looking at those years, 2010 really stands out as an oddball, one would have thought that that year would have been a high impact, high landfall year with those crazy MDR sst anomalies

[skyline385]

Andy counters.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434949633712129

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434953408536577

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523451033535467521

Going to side with Andy here, I have noticed that Danny tends to be very biased towards bullish activity in his outlooks.

Remember couple of days back when he posted the current SSTs comparing them to a blend of 2008 and 2017 (both had super warm MDRs) even though 2022 is almost the opposite of both those years with barely any MDR warming so far.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Andy counters.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434949633712129

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434953408536577

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523451033535467521

Going to side with Andy here, I have noticed that Danny tends to be very biased towards bullish activity in his outlooks.

Remember couple of days back when he posted the current SSTs comparing them to a blend of 2008 and 2017 (both had super warm MDRs) even though 2022 is almost the opposite of both those years with barely any MDR warming so far.

I would have to disagree - I wouldn't call it "barely any warming" really. Around this time last month SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic were decidedly below average, and the warm pool in the subtropics was more pronounced. Since then they have improved quite a bit - sure it's not "blow you out of the water" warm like 2017 or 2020 but as of right now the MDR is in better shape than any of the other years within this current above average streak.

[cycloneye]

Andy counters.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434949633712129

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434953408536577

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523451033535467521

Going to side with Andy here, I have noticed that Danny tends to be very biased towards bullish activity in his outlooks.

Remember couple of days back when he posted the current SSTs comparing them to a blend of 2008 and 2017 (both had super warm MDRs) even though 2022 is almost the opposite of both those years with barely any MDR warming so far.

I would have to disagree - I wouldn't call it "barely any warming" really. Around this time last month SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic were decidedly below average, and the warm pool in the subtropics was more pronounced. Since then they have improved quite a bit - sure it's not "blow you out of the water" warm like 2017 or 2020 but as of right now the MDR is in better shape than any of the other years within this current above average streak.

https://i.ibb.co/MCsv5RL/ezgif-com-gif-maker-4.gif

All discussions are about MDR but GOM and Western Caribbean are warming.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Going to side with Andy here, I have noticed that Danny tends to be very biased towards bullish activity in his outlooks.

Remember couple of days back when he posted the current SSTs comparing them to a blend of 2008 and 2017 (both had super warm MDRs) even though 2022 is almost the opposite of both those years with barely any MDR warming so far.

I would have to disagree - I wouldn't call it "barely any warming" really. Around this time last month SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic were decidedly below average, and the warm pool in the subtropics was more pronounced. Since then they have improved quite a bit - sure it's not "blow you out of the water" warm like 2017 or 2020 but as of right now the MDR is in better shape than any of the other years within this current above average streak.

https://i.ibb.co/MCsv5RL/ezgif-com-gif-maker-4.gif

All discussions are about MDR but GOM and Western Caribbean are warming.

Gulf and WCarib SSTs are usually never an issue - they will almost always be warm enough to foster cyclogenesis, additionally there is a much stronger correlation between MDR SSTs and overall seasonal activity than the rest of the Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

Andy counters.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434949633712129

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1523434953408536577

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523451033535467521

Going to side with Andy here, I have noticed that Danny tends to be very biased towards bullish activity in his outlooks.

Remember couple of days back when he posted the current SSTs comparing them to a blend of 2008 and 2017 (both had super warm MDRs) even though 2022 is almost the opposite of both those years with barely any MDR warming so far.

I would have to disagree - I wouldn't call it "barely any warming" really. Around this time last month SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic were decidedly below average, and the warm pool in the subtropics was more pronounced. Since then they have improved quite a bit - sure it's not "blow you out of the water" warm like 2017 or 2020 but as of right now the MDR is in better shape than any of the other years within this current above average streak.

https://i.ibb.co/MCsv5RL/ezgif-com-gif-maker-4.gif

The present warm belt off of Iceland/Western Europe/Canary Islands is quite insane imho, it almost reminds me of what 2004 kind of looked like during June and July.





Sure, the MDR may not be ridiculously warm, but I feel like this is perhaps the earliest in the calendar year in recent years that we got the Atlantic to adopt a decent +AMO horseshoe look. Not perfect, but closer than years like 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 at this point in time.

[SFLcane]

You know I was thinking tonight that I hope for everyone’s sake living in hurricane prone communities that the look on the cfs and cansips is wrong for July. As favorable as we have seen in the Atlantic for years it’s got me a tad nervous. EPAC should be dead this year so I can see where they are getting the idea so we shall see as sometimes these models do poorly with sal and are overly aggressive.

[SFLcane]

[weeniepatrol]

AGAIN this time of year SST to ACE correlation is much higher in areas other than the MDR. Please just stop. Years like 2018, 1999 prove that the MDR can be 1c below average this time of year and it barely affects the season...

SSTs in the horseshoe area matter more and what do you know, it's scorching there

[toad strangler]

AGAIN this time of year SST to ACE correlation is much higher in areas other than the MDR. Please just stop. Years like 2018, 1999 prove that the MDR can be 1c below average this time of year and it barely affects the season...

SSTs in the horseshoe area matter more and what do you know, it's scorching there

Same thing every year. 1st it's SST handwringining and then the baton pass off to SAL HR a bit later. Wash, rinse, repeat. But I get it, these are indicators and the proper forum for such handwringing I'm very interested in NOAA's outlook. That's my number one indicator. Coming soon!

[Cat5James]

AGAIN this time of year SST to ACE correlation is much higher in areas other than the MDR. Please just stop. Years like 2018, 1999 prove that the MDR can be 1c below average this time of year and it barely affects the season...

SSTs in the horseshoe area matter more and what do you know, it's scorching there

Same thing every year. 1st it's SST handwringining and then the baton pass off to SAL HR a bit later. Wash, rinse, repeat. But I get it, these are indicators and the proper forum for such handwringing I'm very interested in NOAA's outlook. That's my number one indicator. Coming soon!

Atlantic MDR SSTs are also slightly above average currently... not sure what the doom and gloom is all about.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1523641314348507136

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1523641314348507136

Welp, a bout of trade winds in mid-May? Alright, cool MDR incoming for August! CV season will not happen, and I'm calling this season a dud right now.

Ok, no, but seriously; I personally think in the grand scheme of things, that bout of trades will likely not really impact the overall ceiling of the season, particularly if the forecasts for weaker trades near the end of the month verify as Kingarabian pointed our earlier on this page