2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1523726735350456320

[NDG]

With the GFS's history this time of the year I give it <10% coming to fruition in the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

:roll:

Happy hour GFS at it again?

[Category5Kaiju]

:roll:

https://i.postimg.cc/PxkWGbgK/A0-C8-AEED-60-E5-49-F4-9-B23-2-E1-A29-B7-FF1-E.gif

Happy hour GFS at it again?

If we do get a Category 3 hurricane in the W Atl in May, I'm going to move to the moon. Because that means this season is going to be REALLY bad

[AJC3]

Gang,

We've made a tweak to the seasonal indicators thread so that from now onward, hyper-long range (past day 16) global model output should be posted in that thread.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122492

Thanks.

[skyline385]

:roll:

https://i.postimg.cc/PxkWGbgK/A0-C8-AEED-60-E5-49-F4-9-B23-2-E1-A29-B7-FF1-E.gif

Happy hour GFS at it again?

If we do get a Category 3 hurricane in the W Atl in May, I'm going to move to the moon. Because that means this season is going to be REALLY bad

Imagine SFL's shield being broken by a May Cat 3/4

[SFLcane]

Hmmm...

[AutoPenalti]

Hmmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/sgY6B4Md/OAbmgTbt.png

Any sort of TC trying to form in the W Carr will have a hard time trying to intensify.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/sgY6B4Md/OAbmgTbt.png

Any sort of TC trying to form in the W Carr will have a hard time trying to intensify.

Its ok lol its May. SFL needs the rain.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/sgY6B4Md/OAbmgTbt.png

Any sort of TC trying to form in the W Carr will have a hard time trying to intensify.

Considering shear and dry air, it's likely. But there is a caveat:





Assuming these hold up, thermodynamics should not be an issue at all.

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS not disappointing again

[skyline385]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/oJ2km5P.png

Looks like it comes from a CAG that forms around next Saturday

[SFLcane]

If the fantasy GFS had its way every year would be 2005.

[skyline385]

If the fantasy GFS had its way every year would be 2005.

It is very likely a phantom but something to note though is that every run in the past few days have had atleast some ensemble members develop consistently in the Caribbean so the possibility is still there.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/oJ2km5P.png

Thankfully it appears to be spurious. Watch that stream of vorticity off Venezuela - GFS has a tendency to spin up systems from that thing for some reason. It's good entertainment though

[tolakram]

That looks like EPAC to me. Almost every year when the GFS shows development in that area it ends up being in the EPAC. Not every time, but almost every time.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/oJ2km5P.png

Thankfully it appears to be spurious. Watch that stream of vorticity off Venezuela - GFS has a tendency to spin up systems from that thing for some reason. It's good entertainment though
https://i.ibb.co/0cBMDzq/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh156-270.gif

It's an epic phantom pezz dispenser late in the season too. I wonder what makes the GFS spit out vorts like that and if anything can be done to fix it.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/oJ2km5P.png

Thankfully it appears to be spurious. Watch that stream of vorticity off Venezuela - GFS has a tendency to spin up systems from that thing for some reason. It's good entertainment though
https://i.ibb.co/0cBMDzq/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh156-270.gif

Might be from a low-latitude wave. I think the GFS did this a lot last Oct/Nov, when the ITCZ was so far south that every wave ran over northern SA when entering the Caribbean. Regardless of whether the source of that vorticity is legitimate or spurious, the incoming MJO is probably getting the GFS all excited.