2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

Like this makes any sense plowing a tc through 50kt shear...Complete nonsence!

https://i.postimg.cc/0jHWCNG7/gfs-jpeg.gif

It's possible but it requires the perfect mix of DMAX and a strong upper-level warm core to produce the outflow needed for it to just plow through the PV streamer but meh I just don't see it...

[Cpv17]

Like this makes any sense plowing a tc through 50kt shear...Complete nonsence!

https://i.postimg.cc/0jHWCNG7/gfs-jpeg.gif

I see you posting your long range GFS shear maps again. Very likely to verify

[AtlanticWind]

I dont know about a Cat 3 , but a tropical storm would not suprise me considering the activity we
have had in May in the last several years.

[hurricane2025]

if that southeast US ridge stays during hurricane season it’s going to be a bad bad season

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

[AlphaToOmega]

I know there was a lot of discussion of a tropical storm forming in the Caribbean during May 2021. The first storm of this season will probably form in the subtropics, just like 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. There is more recent precedent for that.

[skyline385]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

Saw a conversation on Twitter yesterday that this a typical case of the GFS moving the MJO too fast along with its CAG bias causing the an EPAC storm to form instead in the Caribbean.

[zzh]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

Saw a conversation on Twitter yesterday that this a typical case of the GFS moving the MJO too fast along with its CAG bias causing the an EPAC storm to form instead in the Caribbean.

Isn't this ECMWF?

[Category5Kaiju]

I know there was a lot of discussion of a tropical storm forming in the Caribbean during May 2021. The first storm of this season will probably form in the subtropics, just like 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. There is more recent precedent for that.

2018 was a different story though, although I will say that just because it has not happened commonly in the recent years string does not necessarily mean it won't happen this year for sure. If anything, something pre-season forming in the WCAR compared to the subtropics this year would be plausible as the subtropical warm pool is quite diminished, while the W Atl is way above average in terms of sst anomalies

[Cpv17]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/jKHltvX.png

It’s possible for it to consolidate over on the EPAC side and crossover into the BOC or SW Caribbean. We saw that last year and the year before if I’m not mistaken.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/jKHltvX.png

That definitely lines up better with climo, although interestingly enough the EPS is pretty evenly split on both sides of Central America.

[skyline385]

ECMWF has something but in EPAC on day 10.

Saw a conversation on Twitter yesterday that this a typical case of the GFS moving the MJO too fast along with its CAG bias causing the an EPAC storm to form instead in the Caribbean.

Isn't this ECMWF?

Yes that's why the Euro has it in EPAC while the GFS spins it up in the Caribbean

[skyline385]

Interesting convo in this thread

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1524804866731810817

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Interesting convo in this thread

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1524804866731810817

Yeah operational GFS can be entirely disregarded; I think I can safely say we are not getting a hurricane in the Gulf in May. But the fact that there is ensemble support for some type of development is at least modestly intriguing. I see nothing more than your typical sloppy sheared TS at most though.

[skyline385]

Interesting convo in this thread

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1524804866731810817

Yeah operational GFS can be entirely disregarded; I think I can safely say we are not getting a hurricane in the Gulf in May. But the fact that there is ensemble support for some type of development is at least modestly intriguing. I see nothing more than your typical sloppy sheared TS at most though.

I completely agree and that's what i said a few comments back as well. There is a lot of ensemble support for this system and the number of members supporting it seems to have only gone up in the last few runs.

[AutoPenalti]

lol

[NotSparta]

Looking at this circulation 10 days out, the vorticity show a broad circulation but notice there are some dark dot's around it. Looking at the ensembles it looks like it's seeing 2 possible systems one north near Jamaica which looks to be the best organised and one south off the coast of Central America which is disorganised. The ECMWF is showing the storm now but in the Pacific. Another problem looks to be a wall of shear that it will have to punch through. Even though it is looking tempting each day, with it forming in the far south west of the Caribbean the usual movement would for it to move westward over model runs to be a East Pacific storm much like the ECMWF. But the GFS is still running with it, I still think it's GFS playing tease with us, time will tell.

https://imgur.com/kxmzyZN https://imgur.com/BWcxekb

https://imgur.com/F0N91Fn https://imgur.com/C1Qmkxv

https://imgur.com/VNwA8UE

Those dark dots are little clusters of vorticity. In that run they go on to make the storm quite strong. Classic GFS bias to enormously overestimate the potency of convective feedback here

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS doesnt disappoint, someone should tell it we are still in May

[Fancy1001]

Drink up everyone!

[Stormcenter]

Wow!

Happy hour GFS doesnt disappoint, someone should tell it we are still in May

https://i.imgur.com/mgWXc20.png

https://i.imgur.com/Pet09Z1.png