2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

The chaser wants to work.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1525264008508428289

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Reminder that while we're model watching and anticipating for cyclogenesis in either the Western Caribbean or EPAC, there is an equal chance that nothing could form at all. CMC is a middle ground in that regard with the gyre burying itself into Central America without TC development on either side.

[Cat5James]

This GFS run is something else… very persistent I’ll give it that.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS wrecks Tampa Bay 2 runs now- but obviously- very far out and there will be a lot of shear. I think a sheared tropical storm somewhere in the eastern gulf is reasonable, and even the euro shows moisture moving into Florida from the Caribbean- so regardless of tropical development there will be an increase in rain chances in about 7 days-10 days: classical rainy season cues here.

[skyline385]

Looks like there are only a few ensemble members developing this run for the GFS, wouldnt be surprised if the operational model starts backing off as usual once we get into the high resolution timeframe at 240 hours...

[AtlanticWind]

One more day and the NHC starts the Tropical Weather Outlooks. No areas to highlight yet, but maybe the W.
Carribean in a week or so.

The east Pacific could have something earlier maybe.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like more and more ECM and GFS members take the MJO into 8, which is a favorable phase for TC development in the GOM and Carib. Sea. Things might get interesting around the 22ndish.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1525229986143248384

[kevin]

06z GFS, formation at roughly +140 hours. Might still be a phantom, but if so it's a very persistent one. Hopefully this isn't an indication for what the rest of the season will be like.

[skyline385]

EPS still not sure

[Category5Kaiju]

06z GFS, formation at roughly +140 hours. Might still be a phantom, but if so it's a very persistent one. Hopefully this isn't an indication for what the rest of the season will be like.

https://imgur.com/v1ANXu3

Highly doubt it will of course since it's MAY, but if that run does pan out, then yes, this season is really going to be a world of hurt for strong storms to happen in times of the year when they should not be happening

[skyline385]

06Z GEFS strong, most members are in the Gulf within 240 hours

[SFLcane]

06Z GEFS strong, most members are in the Gulf within 240 hours

https://i.imgur.com/hxkAN8C.png

Still by itself.

[kevin]

12z GFS . Takes a bit longer to fully form into a TC this run due to more land interaction with CA, but a depression already forms around +120 hours. The other models still aren't showing a lot so for now it's GFS vs the rest.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS . Takes a bit longer to fully form into a TC this run due to more land interaction with CA, but a depression already forms around +120 hours. The other models still aren't showing a lot so for now it's GFS vs the rest.

https://imgur.com/jwe5K6v

In recent years, I feel that the GFS has been alarmingly good at detecting TC genesis. It's another story about intensity, but compared to CMC and Euro, the GFS's upgrades have really gone long ways, and because of this, I do feel it really may be onto something in terms of WCAR genesis next week.

[hurricane2025]

Way too far out, I’ve seen this song and dance plenty of times

[cycloneye]

We will know a lot what NHC is thinking about this or not as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks will start on Sunday.

[aspen]

12z GFS . Takes a bit longer to fully form into a TC this run due to more land interaction with CA, but a depression already forms around +120 hours. The other models still aren't showing a lot so for now it's GFS vs the rest.

https://imgur.com/jwe5K6v

GFS thinks it’s October and not mid May.

I’ve noticed that the CAG has been getting a little closer to Central America for the last few runs, so the GFS might be slowly caving towards EPac development (Euro) or no development (CMC).

[shah83]

Hey guys, check out what the 12GFS does to Texas as a result of a nice full-blown hurricane to its east! Gunna be the inverse of the 2021 Freeze.

[BobHarlem]

Well it forms on that gfs 8 days out, so we're getting into the better time range in a few days.