2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Judging by some of those plots, it looks like we may potentially be in for a hurricane season that is very Caribbean-focused. Not saying it will be like 2020 in that sense (that remains to be seen), but I do feel that this year may have the potential to have a highly favorable Caribbean, which aside from 2020 is something we have not really seen since...2008.

Yea almost all indicators this season seem to point to a Caribbean focused one.

A Western-based season is very likely. My analogs for 2022 are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. Among those, 1998, 2001, 2005, and 2020 are heavily Western-based.

I was comparing monthly averaged SSTs and I dont think we are close to 2005 and 2010 levels, however, 2011 could be pretty close in terms of SST atleast.

[AlphaToOmega]

Yea almost all indicators this season seem to point to a Caribbean focused one.

A Western-based season is very likely. My analogs for 2022 are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. Among those, 1998, 2001, 2005, and 2020 are heavily Western-based.

I was comparing monthly averaged SSTs and I dont think we are close to 2005 and 2010 levels, however, 2011 could be pretty close in terms of SST atleast.

https://i.imgur.com/vAw7XVi.png

https://i.imgur.com/5MFDZoX.png

These analogs are based on the ASO pattern; and 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020 had the ASO pattern 2022 is projected to have (+AMO, +AMM, -PDO, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Niño). For reference, here is what the average analog ASO SSTA map looks like for the North Atlantic:

[cycloneye]

Here is what TIKE is about.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0349.1.xml

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1525495800943484931




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1525515377505181696

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1525188920505380864?s=20&t=mSwKoRdKxn4UK0BUQTKrYw

ECMWF suggests "Reduced Expected Value" in the Central Atlantic and negative NAO prediction suggests weaker ridging? Wouldn't we expect more recurve activity in the Central Atlantic and Higher Expected values in that region?

Euro and Ukmet have a positive nao for ASO.

[SFLcane]

Could be quite the season folks.. Buckle up!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1525572062680453120

[SFLcane]

More favorable then 2020?

[Teban54]

More favorable then 2020?

Is there any signal that possibly hinders this season's potential other than SSTs?

[SFLcane]

More favorable then 2020?

Is there any signal that possibly hinders this season's potential other than SSTs?

For now not really atmospherically wise this season could be a big one. Id caution about worrying to much about mdr ssts with almost 3 months to go before August 20th which is when the real season starts. I expect the Mdr should warm to atleast normal levels if not above.

[cycloneye]

Then is this from Webb. Yikes.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1525593173556310016

[SFLcane]

Then is this from Webb. Yikes.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1525593173556310016

Drop mic!

[Stormybajan]

Could be quite the season folks.. Buckle up!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1525572062680453120s=21&t=OnRCDv9e8HAKXiGtVS6zXg

Jeez this last week theres been so many indicators pointing to a very very favorable atmosphere for ASO 2022...and obviously Ben is the expert I should really be asking but how different is 2022 here from 2020 and 2021? Is it because theres more sinking air over south america?

[skyline385]

Then is this from Webb. Yikes.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1525593173556310016

Feels like we just keep getting more confirmation for Caribbean runners this season, every indicator seems to be pointing towards it

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525596755190071298

[zzh]

The subtropical warm pool is back again.

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/6Iqqqwl.png
The subtropical warm pool is back again.

Yeah, the big wrench in what would otherwise be a very easy hyperactive forecast... Atlantic SSTA pattern just not in line with the other factors

[tolakram]

Too much hype, not enough season. Or something like that. Add to that another year where some indicator I've never heard of before indicates favorable conditions.

BE PREPARED for sure!

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525649281914441731

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going to bring up the ghost of 2013 That was a for sure hyperactive season too...it's May people

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm going to bring up the ghost of 2013 That was a for sure hyperactive season too...it's May people

Hyperinactive, you mean ?

Anyhow, while it is indeed May, I have not really heard any info about the THC collapsing, and plus every time the year is brought up as a comparison year since at least 2016, all expectations of such did not verify. I'm by default doubting this year will behave even remotely like 2013.

[NotSparta]

I'm going to bring up the ghost of 2013 That was a for sure hyperactive season too...it's May people

So was 2020... don't think that one was a bust. I'm pretty sure that one was a sure hyperactive season even earlier than that

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm not saying it will be 2013, or that this looks anything like 2013, only that in 2013, we all thought we had all the answers before it even started. It's looking like a very busy season to come but there is always something that nobody catches until after the fact...