2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS is just performing its usual reminder that
A.) Hurricane season is approaching and,
B.) Model storm season is both longer and more intense than reality
A.) Hurricane season is approaching and,
B.) Model storm season is both longer and more intense than reality
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
JMA has storm in the gulf at 192 hours
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GEPS ensembles also have the signal.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AtlanticWind wrote:JMA has storm in the gulf at 192 hours
More like a weak 1006 mb low. I don't have much experience with the JMA model. I still think there will be no storm in the Gulf next weekend/early the following week. Euro and Canadian are indicating East Pac development. We go through this every May with the GFS...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Today’s 12z EPS. Tracks clustered close to Central America (and the algorithm may be getting tripped by a generic CAG signature rather than a TC for some of these tracks), but more support for a northern lift than the 00z. Nothing strong like the GFS.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This is definitely a more plausible scenario than the GFS, if something absolutely has to form. A sloppy system that grapples with Central America for a while before the entire gyre potentially lifts north into the Gulf is something we've seen before in May/June, not so much a full-blown hurricane headed NE towards Florida lol.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Levi Cowan is the man. He doesn’t usually get into forecasting pre genesis. He has always said his strengths are with already formed TC’s. Interesting to see him go outside that box.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The GEFS ensembles have always supported this system, but the GFS has a problem with phantom systems in the Western Caribbean. The GEPS ensembles somewhat support this system (about half-and-half with the GEPS). The ECENS ensembles still show East Pacific development. I am still thinking <10% chance of this system developing in the Atlantic.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
With everything I’ve seen the past few days with models going back and forth this screams nothing but classic early season to me LMAO
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The NOAA 14 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation in the Southeast.
That means there is a better than even chance of drawing moisture up from the south to me.
But if we get an actual storm developing over on the Pacific side first that often delays the Atlantic season.
That means there is a better than even chance of drawing moisture up from the south to me.
But if we get an actual storm developing over on the Pacific side first that often delays the Atlantic season.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z
According to this run, the storm RIs and hits the Yucatan, goes over it, and does not recover in the Gulf and while it appears to landfall over the West Coast of FL
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:skyline385 wrote:Looks like we might be getting a proper GFS solution after all with 18Z
According to this run, the storm RIs and hits the Yucatan, goes over it, and does not recover in the Gulf and while it appears to landfall over the West Coast of FL
Which is pretty much what everyone has been saying it should be, I find it hilarious that it took happy hour GFS to get the correct solution
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
My strong suit is in developed tropical cyclones but this looks like a model storm with potential. Still more likely than not a phantom IMHO.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z seems to be closer to reality than other runs.
But I did notice it’s closing in on time.
But I did notice it’s closing in on time.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like the ECWMF and GFS are starting to get close to each other. These are 700mb at 06z for 23rd May
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