Will Alex form before June 1st?

Fancy1001 · #21 Postby **Fancy1001** » Wed May 18, 2022 6:33 pm

Looks like the streak will break.

Hammy · #22 Postby **Hammy** » Thu May 19, 2022 6:06 pm

Looking highly unlikely at this point.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:06 am

Well, the vast majority (85%) did not won this poll including me. Will make more polls down the road so stay tuned.

AlphaToOmega · #24 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:08 am

cycloneye wrote:Well, the vast majority (85%) did not won this poll including me. Will make more polls down the road so stay tuned.

Luis, I think you are making this call too early :lol:

Category5Kaiju · #25 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:43 am

If Alex somehow forms at the last hour on May 31st, it technically would still count as a pre-season storm though lol

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:48 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:If Alex somehow forms at the last hour on May 31st, it technically would still count as a pre-season storm though lol

Yes.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 21, 2022 11:50 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Well, the vast majority (85%) did not won this poll including me. Will make more polls down the road so stay tuned.

Luis, I think you are making this call too early

The development will be at EPAC before June 1.

AlphaToOmega · #28 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sun May 29, 2022 9:35 am

Unless Agatha can cross Mexico before May 31 ends, we will almost certainly not have pre-season development.

wwizard · #29 Postby **wwizard** » Sun May 29, 2022 11:27 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Unless Agatha can cross Mexico before May 31 ends, we will almost certainly not have pre-season development.

Even if it did, it would still need to develop. No chance that happens in that time period.

Category5Kaiju · #30 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sun May 29, 2022 12:22 pm

It was indeed very tempting to think that this year would have continued the pre-season development streak that occurred for 7 years. After all, it was indestructible, wasn't it?

Unless that GoM system earlier this month does not get reclassified as a tropical storm, looks like we're gonna have to start all over from scratch.

AlphaToOmega · #31 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sun May 29, 2022 3:18 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:It was indeed very tempting to think that this year would have continued the pre-season development streak that occurred for 7 years. After all, it was indestructible, wasn't it?

Unless that GoM system earlier this month does not get reclassified as a tropical storm, looks like we're gonna have to start all over from scratch.

Why is it, out of all years, it is this year that the pre-season streak is likely to break? We have a subtropical warm pool. What specific pattern separates this season from the past 7 seasons?

Astromanía · #32 Postby **Astromanía** » Sun May 29, 2022 6:28 pm

For me preseason storms mean nothing

#33 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Tue May 31, 2022 12:58 pm

Astromanía wrote:For me preseason storms mean nothing

Exactly. Look at 2005 for example. 0 preseason storms.

skyline385 · #34 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 31, 2022 4:00 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Astromanía wrote:For me preseason storms mean nothing

Exactly. Look at 2005 for example. 0 preseason storms.

Also 2004, it did not start till July 31

DorkyMcDorkface · #35 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Tue May 31, 2022 7:23 pm

Past 00z now, the streak is now technically over.

#36 Postby **AnnularCane** » Tue May 31, 2022 7:47 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I kind of wanted to vote "no" since I figure the trend of the first storm before June 1 has to be broken sometime, but I am seriously thinking it's going to happen again this year so I went with "yes."

Now if it IS broken this year, I may decide to start going all George Costanza and go against my instincts, but we'll see.

Um...I'm not actually going to do this. :double:

Well, okay, maybe if this question gets asked again next year, but that's it. :lol: