ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

[zzh]

AL, 90, 2022052218, , BEST, 0, 266N, 880W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742022 to al902022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk

[tropicwatch]

That was quick!

[galaxy401]

Oooh boy first one for the year! Probably just be a lot of rain for the region. How many will there be this season?!

[Iceresistance]

NHC only has 10/10% chance of development. But does mention gusty winds and heavy rainfall for Louisiana and Panhandle Florida.

[Category5Kaiju]

Gotta love the anomalously warm GoM now. Part of me thinks that we could see something briefly come out of this system as the thermodynamics alone seem very favorable

[Dean4Storms]

That circulation is definitely not down at the surface, maybe 850mb level and no deep convection around it, should fizzle.

[ElectricStorm]

First invest of the year! Not expecting this to much but you never know... The season is just around the corner

[Nimbus]

That circulation is definitely not down at the surface, maybe 850mb level and no deep convection around it, should fizzle.

That little vort steaming north without much convection?
It should be picking up more convection if it was at the surface.

[Sciencerocks]

Moving quite fast and needs convection near the center

[InfernoFlameCat]

That circulation is definitely not down at the surface, maybe 850mb level and no deep convection around it, should fizzle.

Yeah, I’d peg that around 850mb or a little higher. It consists of clouds indicative of drier air, such as altocumulus. Might stay together up until landfall though if no MCC flat out destroys it.
Also, if it was at the surface, we would see immediate convection booming from all that convergence. Hence why it appears to be a mid level circulation.

[cycloneye]

That is it.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1528476513548374016

[InfernoFlameCat]

Mild convection is propagating over the swirl.

[cheezyWXguy]

Huh, so this came to pass after all. Made a post about its depiction on the 18z hrrr in the models thread yesterday, but as with the above posts, I can’t imagine anything other than rain coming of this.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection over the center is increasing and the swirl appears to be near surface based. It is organizing. The question is, does it have the time to become a brief depression?

[Sciencerocks]

The LLC/MLC looks pretty good and there's some convection forming over the center. I've seen less organized named storms. We will see if we can get any solid surface data based on buoy data or ascat to confirm a closed LLC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The system is evidently surfaced based now. Dare I say cyclogenesis is underway?

[tropicwatch]

Well pressures are falling in the Florida Panhandle and in the gulf. Ships reporting an hour apart.

SHIP
Location: 29.5N 87.4W
05/22/2022 2300 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 42.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in
Air Temperature: 77.5 °F
Dew Point: 70.5 °F

SHIP
Location: 29.4N 87.5W
05/22/2022 2200 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 45.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in
Air Temperature: 76.1 °F
Dew Point: 70.2 °F

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico about 150 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. This system is
producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions
of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and over the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and strong
upper-level winds should prevent significant development before this
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast later tonight or on
Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast
and will spread across the southeast U.S. during the next day or so.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[BobHarlem]

SHIP
Location: 29.4N 87.5W
05/22/2022 2200 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 45.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in
Air Temperature: 76.1 °F
Dew Point: 70.2 °F

Hmm, that 45.1kt wind could make the case for it with more verification, although it would be short lived. That line near Jackson Mississippi may be showing the steering current there for it, I'm curious how that reacts with this.

[tropicwatch]

Not totally on board with the high upper-level winds comment. Shear above this system appears not to be too terribly bad.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=