Tropical Cyclone 02S moving South-South West...

[Typhoon_Willie]

and holding it's own. Although according to the forecast offered by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center weakening should begin in about 72 hours.

WTXS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 8.6S4 74.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 74.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 9.1S0 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 9.9S8 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 10.7S8 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.0S3 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.1S6 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 08.7S5 074.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
STEADY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF TC 02S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STEERING
FLOW FOR THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, TC 02S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST. AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS AND EXTENDS POLEWARD,
TC 02S WILL INCREASE SPEED SLIGHTLY. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN START TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. BY TAU
72, TC 02S WILL ENTER INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCING WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2, 121500Z9, 122100Z6
AND 130300Z7.//

NNNN

[rainstorm]

thanks willie!!