Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
12Z ECMWF had this coming off the tip of the Yucatan hr 87 after some apparent land interaction?
Looks like Agatha is going to cross into the BOC from the satellite imagery?
Or is this the expectation that the Agatha remnants will be sheared East before the surface low reestablishes?
Looks like Agatha is going to cross into the BOC from the satellite imagery?
Or is this the expectation that the Agatha remnants will be sheared East before the surface low reestablishes?
0 likes
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
12z Hmon starting to pickup on the redevelopment in BOC. While the HWRF dissipates Agatha and develops further northeast similar to CMC.
Hmon
Hwrf
Hmon
Hwrf
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
From the Agatha 4 PM CDT discussion:
The global models continue to
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2573
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
18Z GFS coming around. More in line with CMC/Euro.
0 likes
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1809
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
18z GFS solution further west skirts coast of SE florida, closer to EURO now.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
AtlanticWind wrote:18z GFS solution further west skirts coast of SE florida, closer to EURO now.
Yup, it’s playing catch up.
0 likes
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1809
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
Would not be surprised if NHC goes up to 50% at 8pm outlook.
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
SFLcane wrote:Is that a storm?
https://i.postimg.cc/JhJhJcXb/7-DDAB5-DA-F3-C0-48-DE-A3-A8-439-BA662-C023.gif
Verbatim there perhaps a depression? But, like others have alluded to already, just as good a chance if not better of just a sub tropical low flinging a bunch of moisture through the area. Once a low of some kind actually pops on this side we'll know more.
2 likes
- Spacecoast
- Category 2
- Posts: 687
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
median EC ensemble tracks over Cape Coral, LakeO, & Port St Lucie
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
50%.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter
part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter
part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1809
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
This might be the year the Euro leads the pack again.
2 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
If it develops, it may not cause a noticeable cold water trail due to it’s forward motion. But there is some uncertainty to that as well.
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 743
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
This thing will likely be a sloppy sheared mess in the Gulf, but once it exits out into the open Atlantic it may encounter a better environment in the way of increased upper-level divergence and baroclinic support. We''ll also have to see if it can ride the Gulf Stream like some models are showing which would likely aid it as well.
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Mon May 30, 2022 8:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2573
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
Looks like EURO might be caving in towards the GFS with the shift southwards
Last edited by skyline385 on Mon May 30, 2022 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
Unless your 24 hours out no place is safe and who the heck knows if we get a medium grade tropical system. As I ve said throw historical mean out the door this girl is lookin to go wherever she wants.
0 likes
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
The GFS has a much different look 90 hours out then the Euro.
0 likes
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 743
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Near Yucatán / NW Caribbean possible development?
18z EPS:
0 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Christiana, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], Ivanhater, JayTX, jgh, kevin, loon, South Texas Storms and 92 guests