#945 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 31, 2022 2:36 pm
Is it just me, or has the North Atlantic been usually quiet? Zero hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during 2021 OND, and it is looking likely that 2022 is going to have no pre-season storm.
From 2007 to 2020, every season but one (2013) had at least one hurricane form during OND. That was 92.9% of the seasons from 2007 to 2020; hurricane development during OND was the norm. 2021 was unable to produce one hurricane during OND, despite the fact that 2007, the closest recent analog of 2021, produced a hurricane during OND (Noel (2007)) and despite the fact that seasons significantly less favorable than 2021 did so (2015 produced Kate, and 2018 produced Michael and Oscar). Despite the strong Atlantic Niño, recent trends should have dictated that 2021 produce at least one hurricane during OND, but no such system formed.
From 2012 to 2021, every season but two (2013 and 2014) had pre-season activity, which was 80% of those seasons; pre-season development was the norm. However, despite the conditions that would theoretically favor pre-season development (e.g. subtropical warm pool), no pre-season storm has formed, and no pre-season storm is likely to form. This is despite the fact that 2017, which had a much weaker subtropical warm pool, had pre-season development. Recent trends would dictate that this season would have pre-season development, but none has occurred.
What exactly is happening with the North Atlantic? What exactly is causing these norms to be broken?
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