Shear keeps the deepest convection to the east of it, typical early system.


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cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
zzh wrote:Invest coming soon.
ObsessedMiami wrote:zzh wrote:Invest coming soon.
Movin on up to the Active Storms forum and out of the Talking Tropics backwater
skyline385 wrote:Decided to check 12Z EPS and was surprised to see such a narrow spreadhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/e91ba2fb14b5b0855db4dc3de030f6f9.jpg
NDG wrote:blp wrote:NDG wrote:Two noticeable vortices this morning, the one from Agatha in southern MX and one over northern Belize.
Might be why the models have different solutions.
https://i.imgur.com/4lfLxly.gif
700mb and 500mb on Agatha still holding up so think it has best chance. I think will pop again once it reaches the BOC.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/467e9e1cb03c56e8dd22e4c03aa28f3625211fb3c6813e0a27a868fd90a7f353.gif
https://i.ibb.co/k0zxDGf/wg8vor3.gif
The Euro focuses on Agatha's vortex while the GFS dissipates it and develops the vortex currently over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run
chaser1 wrote:Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run
Huh? As of last glance, the GFS 0Z was only out to 48 hrs. Were you looking at the last post above? That was the ICON.
Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run
blp wrote:Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run
Yes, this run is much stronger and much more consolidated..
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