Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)
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- toad strangler
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
I wouldn't take verbatim ANY rainfall map right now.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
This might be one of the fastest invest to TD threads I can remember. Still no invest thread, but I wouldn't be surprised if this gets classified later today/next night.
Last edited by kevin on Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- wxman57
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
Good chance we'll see PTC advisories today. The fact that the squalls are in the NW Caribbean means that the GFS may have the better solution of a more south track through the FL Straits rather than farther north as per the Euro. Highly-sheared low that the NHC could call Alex, but it won't be a wind threat for Florida or the Bahamas, just rain. With a slight to moderate drought in south Florida, this will be a beneficial system for them.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
Looks like the GFS nailed genesis.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
06z GEFS out to 120 hours. A lot of Florida landfalls, but almost all as a TD or weak TS. Only a single member shows 40 - 50 kt winds.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
The Euro ensembles have been showing development near east coast of the Yucatan P for the last couple of days, if anything the GEFS ensembles are the ones that drag Agatha's old vorticity behind and seem to be in disagreement.
Last edited by NDG on Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
The GFS has been trending towards the Euro during the past couple of days for heavy rains for at least S FL, the Euro trendend towards the GFS in timing and a tad little to the south.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
It looks like the system is moving east not NE and will miss Florida to the south.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
Both models struggled with the developing vortex over the eastern YP this morning.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
boca wrote:It looks like the system is moving east not NE and will miss Florida to the south.
That's the shear pushing the convection to the east, will the vortex follow it? Not even the GFS is showing that any more.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
Id like an invest soon thanks. As others have said becarful using any rainfall map just yet.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
The euro has been stubbornly consistent with a sloppy low moving between Tampa and Ft Meyers. GFS has been inching north and if you look for vorticity and ignore all the small artifacts (my term) it seems like both have a solution not far off from one another with the GFS showing something south of Ft Meyers. I still think GFS is catching some center reformations, which is why the low seems to consolidate ahead of the euro and then gets east of Florida quickly. Amateur observation though.
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- skyline385
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
tolakram wrote:The euro has been stubbornly consistent with a sloppy low moving between Tampa and Ft Meyers. GFS has been inching north and if you look for vorticity and ignore all the small artifacts (my term) it seems like both have a solution not far off from one another with the GFS showing something south of Ft Meyers. I still think GFS is catching some center reformations, which is why the low seems to consolidate ahead of the euro and then gets east of Florida quickly. Amateur observation though.
Think the issue with GFS is that it keeps forming new vorticity centers instead of consolidating them. The storm itself is from a new vorticity center the GFS forms in the Caribbean and slings forward while the one over Yucatan interacts with Agatha's remnants in the BOC, both of which eventually end up dissipating.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development
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