ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[KirbyDude25]

Do any of you foresee PTC1 attaining hurricane status?....This system looks healthy on Satellite.... I appreciate any info

This shouldn't really have much of a chance to become a hurricane, most likely a typical sheared June TS. Once it gets past FL and into the open Atlantic it might have a chance to get a little stronger but the odds of it becoming a hurricane are very low.

Yeah, if this thing becomes a hurricane, it'll do it after moving NE of Florida. HWRF suggests that that is a possibility, but it's also HWRF, so consider that an upper bound

[wxman57]

Rainfall will probably be a greater threat than previously expected if this slow motion continues.

The center will be moving at a pretty good clip when it reaches Florida, but there won't be any rain associated with it then. Squalls will start moving in from the south tomorrow morning, not from the circulation but just from increasing instability. Main squalls 150 miles or more east of the center reach south Florida tomorrow evening and are off the east coast Saturday afternoon. Could see 5-8" of rain in spots.

[wxman57]

Do any of you foresee PTC1 attaining hurricane status?....This system looks healthy on Satellite.... I appreciate any info

No. Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving. The low-level center is over the NE Yucatan. That big blow-up of squalls is 150 miles to the east, indicating very strong wind shear is affecting the disturbance. Shear will increase as it moves northeastward, and squalls will be located even farther east of the exposed center. Strongest wind in Florida will occur with these squalls, well before the center nears. Not much weather with the center. It will likely peak as it is heading out to sea east of Florida, but it will be transitioning to an ET storm early next week.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

One thing that I've always said is that the center (sfc) will follow the convection. The convection is associated with the mid-level center near western Cuba. An exposed LLC will have trouble maintaining itself, particularly if the wind shear would briefly relax. This could allow the LLC to reform closer to the convection. However, that wind shear may remain too strong for a reformation. May just pass Florida as a decoupled LLC-MLC. Regardless of where the LLC forms or reforms, the key to predicting impacts with Alex is to follow the convection associated with the MLC.

[Ian2401]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022057
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.

The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should
continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.

The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very
uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant
development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds
are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this
system.

Thought this was an interesting part of PTC1's discussion. Something we see a lot with these highly sheared storms and some of the models have shown some jumping around of the center on its approach to FL.

Still though, it needs to develop a defined center for there to be any center relocations

[Blown Away]

The 7pm NHC position of 21.5N/87.5W, that LLC is weakening and the MLC @22N/85.8W with convection building I think will become the area to watch.

[fci]

Looks like it is over land and based on surface obs and recon I'd say it is probably closed. The question is will the nhc upgrade a system over land and without convection within 100 miles.

Never stopped them before

I mean, they upgraded PTC 3 to Claudette last year after it made landfall in Louisiana, and TS Kate existed and had a name while being a pizza slice made of clouds, so they'll probably call this TD 1 soon enough

That all sounds well and good but there are specific criteria that need to be met before they will call a system a TD.
I don't think it is subjective.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on 91L
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8pXKlHggU0

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the wind shear map, PTC One could possibly end up with a decent outflow above it.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[ouragans]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

[Hurricane2021]

I'm thinking that PTC 01 could become a TS Colin 2.0

[cycloneye]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

[floridasun]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

https://i.imgur.com/gBnG5A6.png

what is BT?

[skyline385]

I'm thinking that PTC 01 could become a TS Colin 2.0

or TS Andrea for the 2013 season cancelled memes

[GCANE]

Very significant shear as this approaches the coast. Could see a tornado outbreak in the southern half of FL.

[Blown Away]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

Struggling with this, I see little sign of a LLC near that position. No convection over that spot and little to no circulation. I wish recon was out @70 miles East of that 00z position.

[Ian2401]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

https://i.imgur.com/gBnG5A6.png

jesus this thing has got to get away from the Yucatan i don't know how anyone can expect any kind of strengthening with this wind shear + land interaction. feel like its been parked over the Yucatan for days now.

[cycloneye]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

https://i.imgur.com/gBnG5A6.png

what is BT?

Best Track.

[SFLcane]

Satellite appearance is horrible tonight.