ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[Canelaw99]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

Hopefully the local weathermen can really get across to their viewers what and when conditions will deteriorate and what to expect. Even TS designations are perceived as nothin to get excited about by most floridians. Usually only threat of hurricanes get peoples attention.

Palm Beach County schools are not in session. Pretty sure Broward and Dade are out also.

No. I teach at a school in the southern part of Dade County. Our last day of school is June 8, so we have kids, teachers, and staff coming in today. While this morning isn’t bad, dismissal, especially for elementary schools (3:30 usually) will be messy.

[underthwx]

Will the next update include an upgrade I wonder to a Depression, or TS?...

[Nuno]

Hopefully the local weathermen can really get across to their viewers what and when conditions will deteriorate and what to expect. Even TS designations are perceived as nothin to get excited about by most floridians. Usually only threat of hurricanes get peoples attention.

Palm Beach County schools are not in session. Pretty sure Broward and Dade are out also.

No. I teach at a school in the southern part of Dade County. Our last day of school is June 8, so we have kids, teachers, and staff coming in today. While this morning isn’t bad, dismissal, especially for elementary schools (3:30 usually) will be messy.

I am also a teacher, but out west. I am hoping the rain can hold off until the evening. This is an unusually late ending school year

[Ian2401]

Will the next update include an upgrade I wonder to a Depression, or TS?...

Depends on what recon finds here in the next hour. Last recon flight found enough to support a 40kt TS, yet lacking in a defined enough circulation to officially call it (it was close, however).

We will know here in a little bit.

[Jr0d]

Will the next update include an upgrade I wonder to a Depression, or TS?...

Doubt it.

While the wind is strong enough to support TS status if I read the HH data correctly, there still is no defined low level center.

[toad strangler]

Last day of school on the Treasure Coast was June 1st. Anyway, I don't see this as a threat that will disrupt C & S FL normalcy.

[NDG]

I guess yesterday was as good as this system was going to have a somewhat good satellite presentation, is getting hit fairly good with some WNW dry shear with the heaviest convection to the SE of the CoC.
The satellite presentation that the GFS is forecasting for this morning is going to bust big time.

[GCANE]

Looks like its packing a pretty good punch.
Recon measured 51 mm/hr rain rate.
36 knot surface wind in that cell.

[NDG]

Looks like its packing a pretty good punch.
Recon measured 51 mm/hr rain rate.
36 knot surface wind in that cell.

It was flagged, clearly rain contaminated when the flight level wind was only 21 knots.

[Ian2401]

Looks like its packing a pretty good punch.
Recon measured 51 mm/hr rain rate.
36 knot surface wind in that cell.

It was flagged, clearly rain contaminated when the flight level wind was only 21 knots.

not showing up as flagged

[AutoPenalti]

Looks very ragged this morning.

[Ian2401]

Key West airport reporting sustained winds at 29mph with gusts to 38mph

[cycloneye]

Let's see if plane close this circulation.

[wxman57]

That TS wind was flagged and not representative of any circulation. FL winds haven't even reached 30 kts. May still be too disorganized to call a TD. Hard to develop a well-defined LLC in strong wind shear.

[NDG]

If it didn't get upgraded earlier this morning I doubt it will right now with this not so well CoC found so far unless they find another CoC redeveloping somewhere else.

[GCANE]

Looks like its packing a pretty good punch.
Recon measured 51 mm/hr rain rate.
36 knot surface wind in that cell.

It was flagged, clearly rain contaminated when the flight level wind was only 21 knots.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF307-0301A-INVEST_timeseries.png

not showing up as flagged

I don't see it being flagged on Tropical Atlantic either

[HurricaneFrances04]

Might not get classified until it's east of Florida.

[GCANE]

I think this picks up some steam this afternoon when the convective cap dissipates over Florida.
Seeing a healthy 3500 CAPE infeed thru the Yucatan channel.
Still worried about a possible tornado outbreak across south Florida as this approaches.
Very characteristic of a Dryline setup, typical of TX / OK outbreaks.

[ObsessedMiami]

you and I know why its not classified yet, but weather normies out there will be mighty confused if there is a tropical storm warning and the storm doesn't get classified until its past Florida.

[Sciencerocks]